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MODERN ECONOMIC PROBLEMS BY FRANK A. FETTER, PH.D., LL.D. ROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY 1916 TABLE OF CONTENTS PART I. RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION. 1. Material resources of the nation 2. The present economic system PART II. MONEY AND PRICES. 3. Nature, use, and coinage of money 4. The value of money 5. Fiduciary money, metal and paper 6. The standard of deferred payments PART III. BANKING AND INSURANCE. 7. The functions of banks 8. Banking in the United States before 1914 9. The Federal Reserve Act 10. Crises and industrial depressions 11. Institutions for saving and investment 12. Principles of insurance PART IV. TARIFF AND TAXATION. 13. International trade 14. The policy of a protective tariff 15. American tariff history 16. Objects and principles of taxation 17. Property and corporation taxes 18. Personal taxes PART V. PROBLEMS OF THE WAGE SYSTEM. 19. Methods of industrial remuneration 20. Organized labor 21. Public regulation of hours and wages 22. Other protective labor and social legislation 23. Social insurance 24. Population and immigration PART VI. PROBLEMS OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION. 25. Agricultural and rural population 26. Problems of agricultural economics 27. The railroad problem 28. The problem of industrial monopoly 29. Public policy in respect to monopoly 30. Public ownership 31. Some aspects of socialism Index FOREWORD The present volume deals with various practical problems in economics, as a volume published a year earlier dealt with the broader economic principles of value and distribution. To the student beginning economics and to the general reader the study of principles is likely to appear more difficult than does that of concrete questions. In fact, the difficulty of the latter, tho less obvious, is equally great. The study of principles makes demands upon thought that are open and unmistakable; its conclusions, drawn in the cold light of reason, are uncolored by feeling, and are acceptable of all men so long as the precise application that may justly be made of them is not foreseen. But conclusions regarding practical questions of public policy, tho they may appear to be simple, usually are biased and complicated by assumptions, prejudices, selfish interests, and feelings, deep-rooted and often unsuspected. No practical problem in the field of economics can be solved as if it were solely and purely an economic problem. It is always in some measure also a political, moral, and social problem. The task of the economist "as such" is the analysis of the economic valuation-aspects of these problems. We may recall Francis A. Walker's comparison of the economist's task with that of the chemist, which task, in a certain case, was to analyze the contents of a vial of prussic acid, not to give advice as to the use to make of it. Accordingly, in the following pages, the author has endeavored primarily to develop the economic aspects of each problem, and has repeatedly given warning when the discussion or the conclusions began to transcend strict economic limits. In many questions feeling is nine-tenths of reason. If the reader has different social sympathies he may prefer to draw different conclusions from the economic analysis. The outlook and sympathies that are expressed or tacitly assumed throughout this work are not so much those personal to the author as they are those of our present day American democratic society, taken at about its center of gravity. When the people generally feel differently as to the ends to be attained, a different public policy must be formulated, tho the economic analysis may not need to be changed. Therefore, in some cases, the author has discussed merely the economic aspect, or has referred to the general principles treated in volume one, and has purposely refrained from expressing his personal judgment as to "the best" policy for the moment. The present volume was planned some years ago as a revision of a part of the author's earlier text, "The Principles of Economics" (1904). The intervening years have, however, been so replete with notable economic and social legislation and have witnessed the growth of a wider public interest in so many economic subjects, that both in range and in treatment this work necessarily grew to be more than a revision. Except in a few chapters, occasional sentences and paragraphs are all of the specific features of the older text that remain. Suggestive of the rapid changes occurring in the economic field is the fact that a number of statements made in the manuscript a few months or a few weeks ago had to be amended in the proof sheets to accord with recent events. The author's debt for information, inspiration, and assistance in various phases of the work is a large one. The debt is owing to many,--authors, colleagues, and students. A few of the sources that have been drawn upon will be indicated in a pamphlet following the plan of the "Manual of References and Exercises in Economics," already published for use in connection with Volume I; but the limits of space will prevent a complete enumeration. I wish, however, in particular, to acknowledge gratefully the aid and friendly criticisms given in connection with the chapters on money and banking, on labor problems, and on the principles of insurance, respectively, by my colleagues, E.W. Kemmerer, D.A. McCabe, and N. Carothers. In completing, at least provisionally, the present work, the author cherishes the hope that it will be of assistance not only to teachers and to students in American colleges, but also to citizen-readers seeking to gain a better and a non-partisan insight into the great economic problems now claiming the nation's conscience and thought. F.A.F. Princeton, N.J., October, 1916. MODERN ECONOMIC PROBLEMS PART I RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION CHAPTER I MATERIAL RESOURCES OF THE NATION § 1. Politico-economic problems. § 2. American economic problems in the past. § 3. Present-day problems: main subjects. § 4. Attempts to summarize the nation's wealth. § 5. Average wealth and the problem of distribution. § 6. Changes in the price-standard. § 7. A sum of capital, not of wealth. § 8. Sources of food supply. § 9. The sources of heat, light, and power. § 10. Transportation agencies. § 11. Raw materials for clothing, shelter, machinery, etc. § 1. #Politico-economic problems.# The word "problem" is often on our tongues. Life itself is and always has been a problem. In every time and place in the world there have been questions of industrial policy that challenged men for an answer, and new and puzzling social problems that called for a solution. And yet, when institutions, beliefs, and industrial processes were changing slowly from one generation to another and men's lives were ruled by tradition, authority, and custom, few problems of social organization forced themselves upon attention, and the immediate struggle for existence absorbed the energies and the interests of men. But our time of rapid change seems to be peculiarly the age of problems. The movement of the world has been more rapid in the last century than ever before--in population, in natural science, in invention, in the changes of political and economic institutions; in intellectual, religious, moral, and social opinions and beliefs. Some human problems are for the individual to solve, as, whether it is better to go to school or to go to work, to choose this occupation or that, to emigrate or to stay at home. Other problems of wider bearing concern the whole family group; others, still wider, concern the local community, the state, or the nation. In each of these there are more or less mingled economic, political and ethical aspects. Economics in the broad sense includes the problems of individual economy, of domestic economy, of corporate economy, and of national economy. In this volume, however, we are to approach the subject from the public point of view, to consider primarily the problems of "political economy," considering the private, domestic, and corporate problems only insomuch as they are connected with those of the nation or of the community as a whole. Our field comprises the problems of national wealth and of communal welfare. What then are our politico-economic problems in America? They are problems that are economic in nature because they concern the way that wealth shall be used and that citizens are enabled to make a living; but that are likewise political, because they can be solved only collectively by political action. § 2. #American economic problems in the past.# With the first settlements of colonists on this continent politico-economic problems appeared. Take, for example, the land policy. Each group of colonists and each proprietary landholder had to adopt some method of land tenure whether by free grant or by sale of separate holdings or by leasing to settlers. In one way and another these questions were answered, but rapidly changing conditions soon forced upon men the reconsideration of the problem as the old solution ceased to be satisfactory. In large part our political history is but the reflection of the economic motives and economic changes in the national life. Thus the American Revolution arose out of resistance to England's trade regulations, commercial restrictions, and attempted taxation of the colonies. The War of 1812 was brought on by interference with American commerce on the high seas. The Mexican War was the result of the colonization of Texan territory by American settlers and the desire of powerful interests to extend the area of land open to slavery. The Civil War arose more immediately out of a difference of opinion as to the rights of states to be supreme in certain fields of legislation, but back of this political issue was the economic problem of slave labor. Illustrations of this kind, which may be indefinitely multiplied, do not prove that the material, economic changes are the cause of all other changes, political, scientific, and ethical; for in many cases the economic changes themselves appear to be the results of changes of the other kinds. There is a constant action and reaction between economic forces and other forces and interests in human society, and the needs of economic adjustment are constantly changing in nature. § 3. #Present-day problems: main subjects#. The particular economic problems in America at this time are determined by the whole complex economic and social situation. Two main factors in this may be distinguished: the objective and the subjective, or the material environment and the population composing the nation. The one is what we have, the other is what we are, as a people. These factors are closely related; for what we are as a people (our tastes, interests, capacities, achievements) depends largely on what we have, and what we have (our wealth and incomes) depends largely on what we are. We may consider the following phases; the first two of the objective factor, and the last two of the subjective factor. (a) The basic material resources, consisting of the materials of the earth's surface and the natural climatic conditions which together provide the physical conditions necessary for human existence, and which furnish the stuff out of which men can create new forms of wealth. (b) The industrial equipment, consisting of all those artificial adaptations and improvements of the original resources by which men fit nature better to do their will. These two (a and b) become more and more difficult to distinguish in settled and civilized communities, and become blended into one mass of valuable objects, the wealth of the nation. (c) The social system under which men live together, make use of wealth and of their own services, and exchange economic goods. (d) The people, considered with reference to their number, race, intelligence, education, and moral, political, and economic capacity. The particular economic problems which are presented to each generation of our people are the resultant of all these factors taken together. A change in any one of them alters to some extent the nature of the problem. The problems change, for example, (a) with the discovery or the exhaustion (or the increase or decrease) of any kind of basic material resources; (b) with the multiplication or the improvement of tools and machinery or the invention of better industrial equipment; (c) with changes in the ideals, education, and capacities of any portion of the people whether or not due to changes in the race composition of the population; (d) with the increase or decrease of the total number of people, and the consequent shift in the relation of population to resources. Many examples of such changes may be found in American history, and some knowledge of them is necessary for an appreciation of the genesis and true relation of our present-day problems. § 4. #Attempts to summarize the nation's wealth.# If we seek to compare the material resources of the nation at one period in our history with those at another period, we find that it is impossible to find a single satisfactory expression for them. Let us examine the figures for the (so-called) "wealth of the people of the United States",[1] as it has been calculated by the census officials. Average total per capita Population. "wealth." wealth. 1850 23,200,000 $7,136,000,000[a] $308 1860 31,400,000 16,160,000,000[a] 514 1870 38,600,000 24,055,000,000[a b] 624 1880 50,200,000 43,642,000,000 870 1890 62,900,000 65,037,000,000 1,036 1900 76,000,000 88,517,000,000 1,165 1904 82,500,000 107,104,000,000 1,318 1912 95,400,000 187,739,000,000 1,965 [Footnote a: Taxable only; all other figures include exempt.] [Footnote b: Estimated on a gold basis.] A detailed comparison of the classes of concrete things making up the totals is possible only in the last three sets of figures (1900 to 1912), and they are here given (omitting 000,000). 1900. 1904. 1912. 1. Real property (excepting some items below) 52,538 62,331 110,700 2. Irrigation enterprises [a] [a] 360 3. Agricultural equipment (livestock, tools, etc.) 3,822 4,919 7,706 4. Manufacturing equipment 2,541 3,298 6,069 5. Transportation agencies 11,249 14,434 22,360 6. Telegraph and telephones 612 813 1,304 7. Waterworks (privately owned) 263 275 290 8. Electric lighting plants 403 563 2,099 9. Products (still in trade)[b] 8,294 10,212 21,577 10. Direct goods in use[c] 6,880 8,250 12,758 11. Gold and silver 1,677 1,999 2,617 [Footnote a: No figures for these years.] [Footnote b: The main items are agricultural and mining products and imported merchandise.] [Footnote c: The main items are clothing, personal adornment, furniture, and carriages.] § 5. #Average wealth and the problem of distribution#. The foregoing figures make a most satisfactory showing, and appear to indicate that mere economic problems are rapidly being solved by the growth of national wealth. But unfortunately these figures have little significance in connection with such an inquiry, if indeed they are not badly misleading. In the first place, the final figures of "per capita wealth" are merely averages; a per capita increase, therefore, may appear when total wealth increases, altho the total may be due to the growth of comparatively few very large fortunes. The fact is evident that vast numbers of individuals and families are nearly propertyless and in so far as this is true there is involved one of the greatest of our socio-economic problems, that of the distribution of wealth and income among the people. The more unequal the distribution, the greater, in all likelihood, is the discontent; and the greater the effort of many men to find some methods by which greater equality may be attained. § 6. #Changes in the price-standard#. These figures, moreover, are expressed in terms of the monetary price-unit, in dollars of the gold standard, and therefore the increasing total figure (and correspondingly, the increasing per capita) may be but the reflection of a change in the value of the monetary unit. It is well known that the gold dollar has now less purchasing power than in 1880, and less also than at any intervening time.[2] To the extent that this is true the increase in the figures of wealth (total and per capita) is only nominal and does not indicate increase in the quantity and betterment in the quality of real wealth. This fact is so evident that it would seem unnecessary to call attention to it, if it were not constantly overlooked in citing these figures. § 7. #A sum of capital, not of wealth#. Consider further, that the figures here given for wealth really express but the sum of capitals of the individuals (or private corporations) of the nation. These do not constitute a sum of social wealth in any proper sense of the term.[3] Arithmetically it is a fallacious kind of a total, for the sum of the individual capitals contains some items that should be canceled to find the sum of wealth. Moreover, capital is an acquisitive concept. It is an expression of the value of a man's possessions, and not of the utility[4] of them. It measures intensity of desire for goods and not necessarily the degree of welfare. Such a total, therefore, embodies the difficulties of the paradox of value; in some cases increased value reflects a growing scarcity and not greater abundance.[5] For example, between 1900 and 1915, with the growth of population, the total number of improved acres in farms in the United States increased but little, and the per capita number diminished. At least in part as a result of this fact, the prices of nearly all kinds of food rose rapidly, as did also the price of farm land. The prices (and estimated values) of farm lands are the expression of the individual capitals, which formed each year an increasing statistical total of so-called wealth. The people had less land per capita, and were poorer per capita as respects this item of landed-wealth, had less meat per capita, and had to give more labor in exchange for food, at the same time that the statistical per capita of land values increased. So it may be as respects forests, coal, cotton, and eventually iron, copper, and many other things. When forests were plentiful, lumber and fire wood were free goods in many neighborhoods. Forests entered into the total of national "wealth" in 1850 and 1860 at a comparatively small sum. But in 1910 when the forests had been half used up they appeared as a greater total and probably as a greater per capita item of "wealth" than in 1850. The figures reflect changes in the paradoxical section of the scale of values, and express scarcity rather than wealth. Altho the wealth of a nation may not be expressed as a single sum of values that accurately reflects the weal-bringing things composing its environment, some conception of the situation is to be gained by an enumeration of goods in their kinds and quantities and by studying their relations to the life of the people. Objects of wealth may be grouped in various ways. The following may serve our purpose of a general survey of our present resources. § 8. #Sources of food supply#. The land area of the country in 1910 was about 1,900,000,000 acres, of which 879,000,000 acres were in farms, this being 46 per cent of the total area. A very small part of the remainder is used for residential and commercial purposes, the rest being barren mountains, deserts, swamps, and forests. Of the total in farms a little more than one-half was improved, 478,000,000 acres altogether, a per capita average of 5.2 acres; and a little less than one-half was unimproved, 400,000,000 acres altogether, a per capita average of 4.3 acres. The improved land produced not merely food but many kinds of materials, such as cotton, wool, hides, and lumber, while much of the unimproved land was either in farm wood-lots, or in rough range pasture. Of course the kinds and amounts of produce per acre vary with the climate, particularly with sunshine and rainfall; possibly the proportion of the area of the United States that is true desert and infertile mountain land is greater than that of any other equal area in the temperate zones. The actual productive capacity per acre of the lands of America cannot be expressed in a very helpful way as a general average per acre, but each area must be carefully studied in respect to its climate, rainfall, and possibility of irrigation and drainage. It is evident that a very large number of economic problems must arise in connection with the land supply for food: such as problems of land-ownership, taxation, irrigation, drainage, forestry, and encouragement or limitation of population. We are just beginning to awaken to the needs in this direction. The rivers, lakes, and ocean waters near our coasts are other great sources of food, but no statistics are available to show adequately their yield. Few of them are in private possession and they do not appear at all in a total of "capitals," yet they are more important to the nation than a large part of the land area. They are only beginning to be developed artificially by the propagation of oysters, clams, and fish. The development of a proper policy in this matter is one of our economic problems. There were in 1910 (mostly on farms) about 64,000,000 beef and dairy cattle, 60,000,000 swine, 56,000,000 sheep and goats, and there were raised in the one year nearly 500,000,000 fowls of all kinds. § 9. #The sources of heat, light, and power#. The law of the conservation of energy expresses the fundamental likeness of heat, light, and power. The principal sources from which man derives these agencies are coal and falling waters, tho wood is of importance as fuel in some localities. About 500,000 square miles of land (about 13 per cent of the area of the country) are underlaid with coal. These deposits are widely distributed, so that nearly every part of the country is within 500 miles of a mine. The enormous deposits if used at the present amounts per year would last probably 2,000 to 4,000 years, but if used at the present increasing rate (doubling the product every ten years) they would, it has been estimated, last but 150 years. What shall be the actual rate as between these extremes is a question whose answer depends on our economic legislation as to ownership, exploitation, prices, use, and substitution. This is another of our important socio-economic problems. The one great available substitute for coal as a source of heat and light and power is water power. It is estimated that in 1908 but 5,400,000 horse power was being developed from water falls, whereas about 37,000,000 primary horse power[6] was available; but, by the storage of flood waters so as to equalize the flow, at least 100,000,000 horse power, and possibly double that amount, could be developed. As it requires ten tons of coal to develop one horse power a year in a steam engine by present methods, there is here a potential substitute for coal equal to two to four times our present annual use of coal (about 500,000,000 tons in 1912). But this does not mean that it would be economical, at present costs of mining coal and of building reservoirs, to make this substitution now. To determine when, how far, and by what methods to develop this water power from lakes and rivers for the use of the people and to make this substitution, is another of our great economic problems. Petroleum and natural gas, of which our original reservoirs were perhaps the richest in the world, are being rapidly exhausted. These may be merely mentioned as being related to coal in the source of their supply, in the nature of their uses, and in the economic problems to which they give rise. § 10. #Transportation agencies#. First to mention among the means of transportation are the navigable waters--oceans, lakes, rivers, and canals, with the necessary equipment of dredged inlets, harbors, docks, locks, and lighthouses. Few of these appear in the total of "capitals," for they are not in private possession. Yet a good system of natural waterways may be greater wealth to one nation than costly additional railroads are to another. Good natural harbors on the waterways leading out to the oceans are a most important kind of national wealth, as are the navigable great lakes within the boundaries or on the borders of a country. Just in proportion as these natural means of transportation are lacking, is the need to build costly artificial means of transportation. Both in natural and in artificial means of transportation, America is well provided. The straight coast line is 5700 miles long, and the line following indentations of the coast is about 64,000 miles. The Great Lakes with a straight shore line of 2760 miles are the most important inland waterways in the world. The 295 navigable rivers in the country have a length of 26,400 miles of navigable water. About 2000 miles of canals are still in operation. On the waterways some 27,000 American vessels are in use, with a capacity of 8,000,000 gross tons.[7] There are about 250,000 route miles of steam railroads, or with additional tracks, yard tracks, and sidings, a total of about 370,000 miles. On these are over 63,000 locomotives, 52,000 passenger cars, and 2,400,000 freight and company cars. Besides these are 45,000 track miles of electric railways and nearly 100,000 cars. These railroads include an enormous aggregate of works and structures in the form of tunnels, cuts, banks, bridges, stations, and shops. There are in the country (1914) about 2,228,000 miles of public roads, of which 10 per cent are "surfaced" roads. No figures are now available of the number of wagons, horses, automobiles, and other vehicles in use on the roads and streets for purposes of transportation. Many of our economic problems are presented by these transportation agencies, from the question of opening a new dirt road in a rural township to that of building an inter-oceanic canal, from the question whether to have free public roads or toll roads to that of regulating the railroad rates on the whole railroad system of the country. § 11. #Raw materials for clothing, shelter, machinery, etc.# The farm lands supply, besides food, a large part of the raw materials for many other goods, such materials as cotton, flax, wool, hides, feathers, lumber, and firewood. The farm woodlots compose about 200,000,000 acres, and the large forests, public and private, about 350,000,000 acres, a total of about one-fourth the area of the country in forests, containing about one-half of the lumber that the country once possessed. The economic problem of a sound forestry policy is one of the largest we have to solve. The most important other sources of raw materials for industry are the mineral deposits in the earth's surface.[8] This country is stored more bountifully, probably, than is any other country, with the metal ores of iron, copper, lead, zinc, gold, and silver. Aluminum is the most abundant metal, composing about 8 per cent of the crust of the earth, but by present methods it can be extracted only at considerable cost from certain compounds that are limited in amount. The details as to our metal stores are too complex for fuller treatment here, and may be found in treatises on economic geology or on industrial geography. The determination of wise policies as to the use of these stores involves many economic problems, private and public. Another great class of material wealth is in the form of tools, machinery, and other agencies for carrying on the industrial processes of farming and of manufacturing. These are sometimes called instrumental goods, or the industrial equipment. Still another class consists of the great mass of completed direct goods, such as houses to live in, libraries, museums, school buildings, theaters, all kinds of buildings and equipment for pleasure and entertainment, parks, and pleasure resorts in mountains, at lakes or sea shore. The possession and use of these forms of wealth give rise to some economic problems of public ownership and to others connected with the institution of private property in general, as sketched in the following chapter. [Footnote 1: It is to be observed that these figures appear under the general title of Part I, "Estimated valuation of national wealth: 1850-1912," and the tables are spoken of (volume on Wealth, Debt, and Taxation, p. 20) as "estimates of the aggregate wealth of the nation as prepared by the United States censuses," but the tables themselves are described (pp. 23-25) as the "estimated true valuation of all property," this phrase being used as equivalent to "wealth." For the definitions of wealth and property see Vol. I, pp. 264-265.] [Footnote 2: This change will be described below in ch. 6, in treating of the standard of deferred payments.] [Footnote 3: See Vol. I, pp. 265, 278, 508 for the distinction between wealth and capital.] [Footnote 4: See Vol. I, p. 25, for the definition of utility.] [Footnote 5: See Vol. I, p. 510 on the paradox of value.] [Footnote 6: That is, "the amount which can be developed upon the basis of the flowage of the streams for a period of two weeks in which the flow is the least," all the rest being allowed to escape unused. Van Hise, "Conservation of Natural Resources," p. 119.] [Footnote 7: These and other figures in this section relate to the year 1913.] [Footnote 8: Coal has been mentioned above, sec. 9.] CHAPTER 2 THE PRESENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM § 1. The place of private property. § 2. Nature of property. § 3. Relation of wealth, property, and capital. § 4. Some theories of private property. § 5. Origin vs. justification. § 6. Limitations of private property. § 7. Limitations of bequest and inheritance. § 8. Social expediency of private property. § 9. The monetary economy. § 10. The competitive system. § 11. Limitation of competition by custom. § 12. Effect of modern forces upon custom. § 13. Adam Smith's influence. § 14. The wage-system. § 1. #The place of private property#. Of fully equal importance with material wealth in determining the economic power of a people is the _social system_ under which the nation lives. This is the term applied to the whole complex of institutions and arrangements in which and by which people live together in society. It is the embodiment of the opinions, ideas, and habits of life inherited by each generation from its forbears. It is, indeed, a people's whole state of civilization with its political, economic, intellectual, scientific, religious, and esthetic aspects. The most important economic aspect of the existing system is, broadly speaking, the institution of private property. So closely connected with this that they are hardly more than different phases of the same thing, are the use of money (the monetary economy), the wage system, and competition as a mode of distribution. "The institution of private property" is the general expression for the way in which men in the modern state make use of their own energies and of material wealth within the nation. Nearly all the total of the things mentioned in the table in Chapter 2, section 4, are owned by private citizens.[1] We live in a régime of private property, and all our economic problems are affected by that fact. The determination of the exact boundaries of private property makes up a large part of the politico-economic problems which the people in each generation have to solve. A large share, possibly, in a certain sense, every one of the economic problems that are discussed involve change, limitation, definition, or, more radically, abolition of present laws of property. Broadly understood, as above, therefore, determination of the nature of private property is _the essential_ economic problem. § 2. #Nature of property#. Property means ownership, and "ownership" is the abstract noun expressing the quality of possessing a thing. Correspondingly, "owner" is the Anglo-Saxon equivalent of "proprietor." Property thus, fundamentally, means not an object held, or possessed, but the right in or belonging to a person to control something that he owns. Ownership is a legal right to control under certain conditions.[2] Physical, possession of an object is not necessarily ownership. There are different kinds of ownership. It may be private, as that of individuals, families, partnerships, or corporations; or it may be public, as that of nations, states, counties, cities and towns, owning such things as public buildings, parks, highways, the Adirondack forest-reserve, or the Erie Canal. These two kinds are equally effective as against the claims of outsiders, but the rights of those inside the circle of ownership differ. For example, the rights of one shareholder against another, or the rights of one member of a family as against another, are not the same as the rights against outsiders. Private property is the characteristic feature of our present industrial society, but it exists side by side with public property and with many intermediate grades between private and common property. Tho property meant originally and essentially the intangible right to a thing, the word came to be applied also to the object of the right. This is done both in common speech and in judicial decisions, with inevitable ambiguity. This may be readily seen by trying to substitute the word ownership for property, a thing quite simple in some cases but impossible in others. One would not point to a house and say, "This is my ownership," but either, "This is my property," or "I exercise ownership over it." It is well recognized that a man may have a property right in this abstract sense in or over his own services, as to practise a trade or in the "good will" of a business or in an intangible patent or a copyright, quite as well as in a material object. § 3. #Relation of wealth, property, and capital#. A failure to see this distinction and to keep it clearly in mind has led to confusion, even on the part of legislatures, learned judges, and able economists. If property is said to be (for example) a house and lot and at the same time the right to that house and lot, then there are two properties at once for each economic good, viz.: the object itself and the right to it.[3] This difficulty could be avoided by the consistent definition and use of terms. A material economic object is a good, is a form of wealth. The usance of wealth and the service of laborers at the moment rendered constitute forms of income. The right of ownership, i.e., the right to control, use, or direct the use of wealth and services, is property, which is therefore the right to receive incomes. The value of the incomes of an individual constitute his capital. Goods, rights to goods, value of rights to goods: these three things are clearly distinguishable. § 4. #Some theories of private property#. Various theories have been framed to explain the origin and to justify the existence of private property. The occupation theory is that property is based upon the priority of claim of one who finds wealth without an owner and appropriates it. This is not an explanation of the property rights that are arising every moment, nor does it give a logical reason for the continuance of ancient property rights. It is a statement applying to a case that has rarely happened, the settlement of an unoccupied territory. More adequate to explain many cases is the conquest theory, that property is based on force; for nearly all lands to-day are occupied by the descendants of conquering invaders who took the lands and natural resources from the former inhabitants, who in turn had taken them from other occupants, many centuries before. The conquest theory applies, for example, to the invasion of the Roman provinces by barbarian tribes who divided the country and developed the feudal system based on land tenure. But it hardly applies to present-day happenings, and at its best it cannot, to modern minds, "justify" present property rights. The labor theory, meeting some queries where others fail, is that ownership is based on the act of production. It is declared that every man has a right to that to which his brain and his muscle have imparted value. It is evident that this test leaves without explanation or justification a great number of things that do exist and have existed as property. Usually the basis of the labor theory of property is declared to be each individual's natural right to the results of his own labor, which claim is assumed to be an ultimate, undebatable, axiomatic fact. However, that type of natural-right doctrine, which makes no appeal to experience and results, is now quite discredited in political science. Another form of natural-rights theory is that property is necessary for the realization of the dignity of human nature and every individual has the natural right to self-realization. This theory is, in a way, based on an appeal to experience, as to the effect of property on human character, and it has the virtue of expressing one of the ideals of modern democracy. Altho, in common with various other "natural-rights" theories, it must be deemed too absolute and too individualistic, it contains a far-reaching truth, of which due account must be taken in our social philosophy. The legal theory is that property exists because the law says it shall. This expresses a truth, but is no more than a truism. The law determines the limits of property, but what determines the limits of the law? What practical or social justification is there for passing and continuing such law? The legal theory does not contain a final explanation. Each of these theories has its defects, but each points to some fact important and significant, at certain times and places, in the explanation of this widespread institution. § 5. #Origin vs. justification#. The question of the origin is not the same as that of the present justification of the existing system of private property. The institution of private property has evolved under diverse conditions. In early societies individual property rights were not very clearly marked. Every tribe asserted against other tribes, and tried to uphold by war, its claims upon its customary hunting grounds; but the claims of the individual hunters on land within the tribe did not often come into conflict. Private property at the outset was in personal possessions, ornaments, weapons, utensils, which were very meager in that primitive society in which it was the custom "to go calling with a club instead of a card-case." Only later came individual property in land. A few years ago it was generally believed that the organization of the old German tribes was politically an almost perfect democracy, and economically a communism in which all had equal claims upon the land. To-day this opinion is very seriously questioned. It seems probable that there was a goodly measure of communism in the control and use of lands (tho not in other things), but this was largely confined to an oligarchy of the favored; whereas the masses lived in subjection, cut off from all but a meager share in the common lands. However that may have been, strong forces within historic times have put an end to the common ownership and tillage of land as it existed among the peasants of Europe. That system was shown by experience to be wasteful. Competition tended to bring the economic agents into more efficient hands, and the movement was furthered by many acts of injustice and violence on the part of those in power. Inquiries into the origin and development of any social institution are interesting and helpful in forming an estimate of its present significance, but the problems of the past are not those of to-day. Whether or not the ancient beginning of property in Europe was in violence and evil has but a remote bearing on the question as to the present working of it. Social conditions and needs have not changed more than have the forms and limits of property itself. Each generation has its own problems to solve, and ignoring for the most part the evils of the distant past, each generation must test existing institutions by their present results. § 6. #Limitations of private property#. It is well, in discussing private property, to rid the mind at once of the idea that it is an absolute and unchanging thing. Few realize the manifold ways in which property rights are limited. Unmodified private control of property is unknown; the public makes many reservations in its own interest. There is, first, a whole set of limitations to prevent nuisances. An owner in many situations is not free to build a slaughter-house or to start a glue-factory on his land. Property is governed by general public utility, and anything that threatens to become a nuisance or a danger may be excluded. Under the right of "eminent domain," the state or the railroad takes the old homestead from the owner who would live and die there. Altho pecuniary damages are paid to him, this is a limitation of his property rights. Rights of way on property exist either by contract or by prescription permitting its public use. Most important of all limitations is the right of taxation, by which society takes more or less of private incomes for purposes of which the individual owners may not approve. The law enforces a multitude of private claims by some persons against others. A variety of rights called easements or servitudes may attach to private property, modifying its exclusive use. Leases for any period are a limitation of the owner's control. Both the holder of the lease and the owner of the property have certain rights before the law. The lender of money secured by mortgage has a legally recognized and enforceable interest in the mortgaged wealth. Property is left in trust for the benefit of persons or of institutions or of the public, and is administered by trustees who are strictly bound to execute the terms of their instructions. Contracts of many sorts are entered into by owners, limiting their control in manifold ways, and the law enforces these contracts. These all form a complex of equitable claims, which together equal in value one undivided property right, which in turn equals the value of the wealth.[4] § 7. #Limitations of bequest and inheritance#. The term bequest implies a will, usually a written will in which the person, in anticipation of death, expresses his wishes as to the disposition of his property. It is said sometimes that bequest is a "logical" result of private property, but the law does not treat it as such. The right of bequest, or of gift at death, is limited in various ways in different countries. In countries where hereditary aristocracies exist, primogeniture is in some cases required by law, in others so strongly favored by public opinion that it is practically always followed. Custom limits bequests in England to members of the family, and wills given outside the family are rare, and are almost always broken in the courts. John Stuart Mill contrasted this with the practice in America, frequent even in his day and still more frequent now, of rich men giving for public purposes. In France the right of bequest outside the family is legally limited; only the share of one child can be willed away by the father, and the rest must be equally divided among the children. Settlements and _fidei commissa_ are limited in many countries, because of the recognized social evils resulting from the tying up of estates for generations. Throughout the history of England, Parliament has given attention to the question of mortmain, which chiefly concerned the drifting of great estates into the hands of the church or of corporations, as the result of bequests by the pious. In England, of late (and to a less extent in this country), the policy of permitting unlimited endowments to charitable institutions has been seriously questioned, and by legislation some of the old endowments have been diverted from their original purposes when these have ceased to be of social utility. Inheritance, in contrast with bequest, usually means succession to the property of one who has died intestate, that is, has made no will. The law of inheritance likewise varies greatly with time and place. § 8. #Social expediency of private property#. In the light of present political philosophy the explanation and justification of private property must be on grounds of social expediency. This is a broad explanation and it has the fault of a broad explanation, that it needs to be further explained. Under it can be brought the many varying conditions. Even if private property works hardship to individuals in many cases, yet it may be justified if, on the whole, it is best for the progress of society. Laws must be judged by their average working, not by exceptional cases. In general, the system of private property must be judged by this test: Does it further the welfare of the nation better than would any alternative plan for the control of economic wealth? The question is not whether it is faultless, for no human institution is so. Nor must it be assumed that the rule of property needs to be uniform in respect to all kinds of wealth. There are many kinds of property, and the test may be applied separately to the different forms and to the varying degrees of property rights. The varied and often strict limitations of property mentioned above are all determined by some thought, wise or foolish, of social expediency. Different parts of wealth may be treated in different ways: there may be private property in wagons, and public property in roads; private property in houses, and public property in forests; private property in automobiles, and public property in railway carriages. But any rule of property, like any other workable human law, must be applicable to all individuals that meet the conditions. The very acceptance of the theory of social expediency implies the need of frequent readjustment of the institution of private property. The essential thought in the various attacks on the institution of property is that, because it either causes or makes possible the inequality of incomes, it is not socially expedient. Private property, as it is found to-day, is complicated by many historical accidents. Survivals of ancient injustice and relics of feudal institutions that rest on no vital reason remain in our new country as well as in the older ones. The limits of property in many respects are determined not according to the logic of expediency, but by the social inertia which often governs successive generations. The question is raised in many minds: If private property is not an absolute right, what shall be its limits? What changes should be made in it? These questions put the greatest economico-political problem of our day, one that contains within it, indeed, many minor problems. A number of these will receive attention in the following pages. § 9. #The monetary economy#. So greatly does the use of money facilitate the transfer, buying, and selling of private property and so closely are property and pecuniary trade connected in practice and in the thoughts of men, that every radical proposal to abolish private property has included a plan to do away with money also. But money and private property are not essentially and logically bound up together, for a certain measure of private property always has been found where money was little or not at all used. True, if there were absolutely no private property, there would be little use for money, altho it might still be used as a form of counter by the communistic state. We have already seen[5] how a monetary unit comes into use, and we shall treat more fully of the nature of money in later chapters. We may note here merely that the use of money is an outstanding feature of the present economic system and gives rise to many of the problems of political economy. § 10. #The competitive system#. The existing system is likewise characterized by competition[6] in the buying and selling of wealth and of the usances and services of economic agents. By competition we mean here the condition of political freedom on the part of each man to trade his property (goods, uses, or services) as he chooses, and this combined with the disposition on his part to get what he values most highly for himself and his family. Whenever any one else (official or citizen) forbids and prevents a man from getting all he can, in so far competition is limited. Whenever any one is deterred by fear of, or by affection for, some other trader, from getting all he can, in so far competition is limited. Whenever any one conspires with another trader to act together with him to withdraw or to alter his bid, in so far competition is limited. Private property and economic competition do not merely happen to exist side by side, forming more or less favored conditions each for the other; they are essentially connected.[7] It is not our task at this point to present the advantages and disadvantages of competition, but merely to indicate its important place in the actual economic world. Like private property, competition is not the universal feature of our present system, but it is the most general and characteristic method of valuation, of price fixing, and of trade. § 11. #Limitation of competition by custom.#[8] The relatively large influence of competition in present society appears more plainly in comparing the present system with that of an earlier state of society or with that of a present savage tribe. A member of the lowest human societies is subject to law; tho he is a savage he is not "untutored." On the contrary he is bound in many ways to follow customary lines of conduct, and a large part of his time is given to learning the traditions and then to observing the ceremonials of the tribe. Primitive customs always take on a religious sanction, and every member of the tribe is piously bound to do as his fathers have done and as his neighbors are doing. This limitation applies to the choice of food to eat, clothes to wear, time to hunt, plant, and harvest, weapons and tools to use, where and how to trade, how much to give or take, and to countless other details of economic choice. So, in early society, economic relations were complex and but slowly changing from generation to generation. Custom, rather than competition, ruled in manifold ways the economic actions of men. Custom continued to rule a large share of the individual life of the peoples of northern Europe through barbarian and feudal times. Its force has gradually decreased, but even yet is not entirely set aside. Political and economic interests were not clearly distinct in the Middle Ages. Land was the all-important kind of wealth. Military and other public services were performed by the higher landlords (as vassals of their overlords) who in this way paid at the same time what we to-day would call rent and taxes. The landlord in turn received from his underlings services and goods in kind (food and supplies) and so (in modern eyes) was both a collector of taxes and a receiver of rent. The rent, however, was not a competitive price, but consisted of the dues and services which the forefathers had been accustomed to pay. In many ways also in the towns, close organizations of craftsmen and of merchants regulated prices and kept others out of their industries. Industrial privilege pervaded the life of that time. Yet through all the Middle Ages ran the forces of competition. The inefficiency of customary services and the high prices charged by selfish privilege were constant invitations to men to become competitors. Men strove to break over the barriers of custom and of prejudice. Their efforts to attain freedom to compete was the vital force of the time. The industrial history of the Middle Ages was largely the story of the struggle of the forces of competition against the bonds of custom and privilege. § 12. #Effect of modern forces upon custom#. The industrial events following the discovery of America strengthened the forces making for economic freedom. Discoveries in the Western hemisphere opened up a wide field for the adventure and enterprise of Europe. Commerce is the strongest enemy of custom, and new opportunities gave a rude shock to the conservatism both of the manor and of the village. With the rapid growth of industry and manufactures, old methods broke down. In an open market custom declines; it flourishes best in sheltered places. Further, the movement of thought in the Reformation, and the spirit of the times which expressed the principle of personal liberty and allowed the individual to follow his own opinions and take the consequences, were favorable to competition. Despite these facts, the restraints of the national governments on trade continued great, in some respects increasing during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, in France, Holland, and England. The regulation before attempted by towns and villages was employed on a larger scale by national governments with their industrial systems. The colonies in America were used for the economic ends of the "mother country" and for the selfish interests of the home merchants in Europe. The American Revolution was one of the bitter fruits of the English policy of trade restriction. § 13. #Adam Smith's influence#. "The Wealth of Nations," the first great work on political economy, was published in the year 1776. That was the "psychological moment" for its appearance, as public thought was so prepared for it that it had its maximum possible influence. The year of the American Declaration of Independence gave the most striking object lesson on the evils of a selfish colonial policy that interfered on a grand scale with economic freedom. The old customs had become ill fitted to life, ill adapted to the rapid industrial changes that were going on. What was needed in many directions, both in politics and in industry, was merely negative action by the government, the repeal of the old laws, the overthrow of old abuses. The French Revolution, following a few years later, emphasized this thought in the political field. The philosophers of the time believed in a "natural law" in industry and politics. The reformers of the time wished to throw off the trammels of the past and to give men opportunity to exert themselves "naturally." In America the old abuses never had taken deep root, as the conditions of a new continent were not favorable to monopoly and privilege. Altho the movement for the repeal of medieval laws has continued in Europe from 1776 till the present time, yet custom still is stronger to-day in Europe than in America. Serfdom was not abolished until the first half of the nineteenth century in Austria and southeastern Europe, and not until the last half in Russia. Many economic and cultured forces furthered this movement, but the most powerful intellectual force in its favor was the work of Adam Smith. So strong an impression did Smith's book make, that in the minds of men "free trade" became almost identical in thought with political economy, whereas that was but the temporary economic problem of the eighteenth century. Many men then thought that in "free and unlimited competition" had been found a solution of all economic problems for all time. But soon, it was apparent that it was no such simple and absolute solution. Indeed many of the present economic problems--in one sense all of them--center around this one: to determine the proper forms and limits of competition. The varied aspects that this problem takes will appear in every portion of the following pages. § 14. #The wage-system.# Viewed in another aspect the present economic and social order is called the wage-system.[9] The wage-contract, like the use of money, is not essential to the existence of a system of private property. Communities such as the American colonies and as many of the newly settled states, may consist almost entirely of self-employed owners of land. Bulgaria, before the Balkan wars called the peasant state, presented this organization (tho of course with some wage-payment), as did also its neighbor Serbia. But given the institution of private property with competition (freedom to buy and sell), let manufactures and commerce develop to any extent, and inequalities of fortunes increase while an increasing number of persons work for wages. It is noteworthy that as this goes on (as it has done in America at an increasing rate since the middle of the nineteenth century) it is the agricultural and rural hand industries that continue to be mainly worked by owner-managers and workers, while it is the manufacturing, transporting, and large commercial enterprises in which the labor is done for wages. The acceptance of the wage-system thus far has been the inevitable price to be paid for manufacturing and industrial development; and one of our economic problems is to determine whether this must continue, and if so, whether in the same measure as in the past. [Footnote 1: The exceptions are probably unstated amounts of exempt real estate (owned by municipalities, state, and nation), some of the irrigation plants, part of the canals, and that part of the gold and silver which is in the public treasury.] [Footnote 2: See Vol. I, pp. 264-267. The law makes between property rights and equitable rights some subtle distinctions, which have their reason in the history, if not in the logic, of the law but which are not essential to economic discussion. In some states this distinction has been in large measure abolished. What interests us are the rights (claims) that men have to the control of wealth and services, whether by technical law these are called legal or equitable, and this right is what is meant by "property" in our discussion of it.] [Footnote: 3 This confusion has had important practical consequences in the field of taxation. See Vol. I, pp. 265-267, and below, ch. 17.] [Footnote 4: These claims mutually delimit each other (whether they be called equitable claims, or liens, or property rights), and wealth is not multiplied by multiplying the claims, as is unfortunately sometimes assumed to be the case. See above, sec. 3.] [Footnote 5: See Vol. I, p. 51.] [Footnote 6: See Vol. I, p. 73.] [Footnote 7: This will appear in comparing the competitive method of distribution with other methods in ch. 31.] [Footnote 8: See Vol. I, p. 143, on medieval land tenures; p. 158, on customary rents; p. 190, on the effect of caste.] [Footnote 9: See Vol. I, p. 227.] PART II MONEY AND PRICES CHAPTER 3 NATURE, USE, AND COINAGE OF MONEY § 1. Origin of money. § 2. Qualities of the original money-goods. § 3. Industrial changes and the forms of money. § 4. The precious metals as money. § 5. Gold-using countries. § 6. Varying extent of the use of money. § 7. Money defined and reviewed. § 8. Metal money without or with coinage. § 9. Technical features of coinage. § 10. Seigniorage defined. § 1. #Origin of money#. Everywhere in the world where the beginnings of regular trade have appeared, some one of the articles of trade soon has come to be taken by many traders who did not expect to keep or use it themselves, but to pass it along in another trade.[1] This made it money, for money is whatever comes to be used as a general price-good. The character of a _general_ price good clearly distinguishes money from goods bought and sold by a particular class of merchants, such as grain, cattle, etc., to be sold again. It is only in so far as a particular good comes to be taken by persons not specially dealing in it, taken for the purpose of using it as a price-good to get something else which they desire, that a thing has the character of money. The thing called money thus is a durative good passing from hand to hand in a community, and completing its use in turn to each possessor of it only as he parts with it. The use of money is of such social importance, that it would be impossible for modern industrial society to exist without it. The discussion of money touches many interests, it raises many questions of a political and of an ethical nature. There are perhaps more popular errors on this than on any other one subject in economics, but the general principles of money are as fully understood and as firmly established as are any parts of economics. § 2. #Qualities of the original money-good#. The selection of any money-commodity has not been mere chance, but has been the result of that object being better fitted than others to serve as a medium of exchange. The main qualities that affected the selection of primitive form of money were as follows: 1. Marketability (or saleability); that is, it must be easy to sell. The first forms of money had to be things which every one desired at some time and many people desired at any time. That was the essential quality that made any one ready to take it even when he did not wish to use it himself. Many kinds of food and of clothing are very generally desired goods. But few of these classes of goods have in a high measure certain other important qualities, now to be named. 2. Transportability; that is, the money material must be easy to carry, it must have a large value in small bulk and weight. To carry a bag of wheat on one's back a few miles requires as great an effort ordinarily as does the raising of the wheat, and the cost of carriage for fifty miles even by wagon will often equal the whole value of the wheat. Cattle, while not comparatively very valuable in proportion to weight, and not possessing the other qualities of money in the highest degree, have the advantage that they can be made to carry themselves long distances, and therefore they have been much used as money in simpler economic conditions. 3. Cognizability; that is, the money-good must be easy to know, and to judge as to quality. If expert knowledge or special apparatus are needed to test it in order to avoid counterfeits, few could be ready to take it and trading would be a costly process. 4. Durability; that is, the money-good must be easy to keep without much loss in amount or in quality, perhaps for long periods, until it can be passed on in trade. Few kinds of food answer very well to this last requirement, being organic and perishable. But all four qualities above named were pretty well embodied in primitive times in rock salt, in rare flints and bits of copper suitable for tools and weapons, in furs in northern countries, and in many articles of personal adornment, such as beads, feathers, jewels, and metal ornaments. 5. Divisibility; that is, the quality in the monetary material that permits it to be divided easily into smaller amounts and then to be united again into larger masses at little cost and without loss in amount or in quality. This quality is present only when the material is quite homogeneous throughout the whole mass, a condition fulfilled more completely by the metals than by any other goods. This quality makes it possible to put the governmental stamp upon the money material, and to produce pieces, some of which are exact duplicates and some exact multiples, of others. In this manner pieces of money are provided suitable for transactions of different magnitudes, down to small fractional amounts. A monetary system of this kind aids greatly the development of the sense and habit of exact estimation of price. § 3. #Industrial changes and the forms of money#. The money use, as has just been shown, is a resultant of a number of different motives in men. The changing material and industrial conditions of society change the kind of money that is used. Things that have the highest claim to fitness for money with a people at one stage of development have a low claim at another. The final choice of the money-good depends on the resultant of all the advantages. Shells are used for ornament in poor communities but cease to be so used in a higher state of advancement, and thus their saleability ceases. Furs cease to be generally marketable in northern climes, when the fur-bearing animals are nearly killed off and the fur trade declines. When tobacco was the great staple of export from Virginia, everybody was willing to take it, and its market price was known by all. It served well then as the chief money, but, as it ceased to be the almost exclusive product of the province, it lost the knowableness and marketability it had before. In agricultural and pastoral communities where every one had a share in the pasture, cattle were a fairly convenient form of money, but in the city trade of to-day their use as money is impossible. Thus, in a sense, different commodities compete, each trying to prove its fitness to be a medium of trade; but only one, or two, or three at the most, can at one time hold such a place. While industrial changes and conditions affect the choice of money, in turn money reacts upon the other industrial conditions. If a new and more convenient material is found or the value of the money metal changes to a degree that affects the generalness of its use, industry is greatly affected. The discovery of mines in America brought into Europe in the sixteenth century a great supply of the precious metals, and this change in the use of money reacted powerfully upon industry. Money, being itself one of the most important of the industrial conditions, is affected by and in turn affects all others. § 4. #The precious metals as money#. Certain of the metals early began to show their superior fitness to perform the monetary function. The metals first used as money were copper, bronze (an alloy of copper with nickel), and iron. These were truly precious metals in early times for they were found only in small quantities in a few localities. They, therefore, were widely sought and highly valued as ornaments and for use as tools and weapons. But as the great ancient nations emerged into history, these materials were already being displaced in large measure. Their value fell greatly as a result of greater production due to somewhat regular mining. As wealth grew, as trade increased, as the use of money developed, as commerce extended to more distant lands, the heavier, less precious metals failed to serve the growing monetary need, especially in the larger transactions. Silver and gold, step by step, often making little progress in a century, became the staple and dominant forms of money in the world, while copper and nickel still continued to be used for the smaller monetary pieces. Every community has witnessed some stages of this evolution. In this contest silver had proved itself a few centuries ago to be on the whole the fittest medium of exchange for most purposes, though gold was at the same time in use in larger transactions and in international trade. § 5. #Gold-using countries#. At the beginning of the nineteenth century nations were divided, in accordance with the metals they used as standards, into two great groups, silver- and gold-using. Since that time, and more rapidly after 1850, gold has displaced silver as the standard money. In a higher degree than any other one material, gold has the qualities of a good standard for rich and industrially developed communities. England for a long period practically has had gold as its standard money; the United States since 1834 (except for the period of paper money from 1862 to 1879); France since about 1879, having shifted gradually from silver, after 1855, under the working of the bimetallic law; Germany since 1873; and Japan since the later nineties. Other countries have been striving to attain it. Since about 1890 some states (including Mexico) and some of the colonial possessions of the great nations (including India and the Philippines) have adopted the plan of "the gold-exchange standard." By this plan gold is the standard price unit, while silver continues to be used all but exclusively as the material in circulation, its amount being controlled and its value regulated on principles to be explained below under coinage, seigniorage, and foreign exchange. There are now left but a few silver-standard countries, the most important being China. There are, however, numerous countries, notably in South America and Central America, which have fiduciary paper-money standards.[2] § 6.# Varying extent of the use of money#. Trade by the use of money at no time has become the exclusive method. Barter still lingers to-day.[3] The extent to which, on an average, money is used in different parts of the world differs widely. The use of money in Siberia is less than in European Russia, and its use is less there than in western Europe. The use of money as compared with barter is generally much greater in the cities than in the rural districts. In the cities of Mexico not only money, but banks and credit agencies are in general use; whereas the rural districts are more backward and make far more use of barter than is the case in the United States. At the ports in the cities of China, India, and South America the use of money may be very like that in European cities; but go a little way into the interior of these countries and conditions as to the use of money change greatly. However, the comparative per capita amounts of money (in terms of American dollars) in circulation in different countries is far from being a true index of their industrial development or of their commercial activity. Indeed, beyond a certain point the larger average amount of money in circulation in a country may indicate backwardness in the development of banks and other credit agencies rather than greater amount of wealth or of business. Notice, for example, the medium position of the great commercial countries, Germany and the United Kingdom, as compared with other countries above and below them in the following list. PER CAPITA CIRCULATION OF MONEY IN LEADING COUNTRIES DECEMBER 31, 1912. France..................$48.91 America (U.S.)..........$32.98 Australia............... 38.45 Portugal................ 29.46 Canada.................. 33.57 Netherlands............. 26.86 Switzerland............. 24.32 Mexico.................. 9.17 Germany................. 21.36 Finland................. 8.38 United Kingdom.......... 21.21 Chile................... 8.24 Spain................... 19.96 Turkey.................. 7.09 Brazil.................. 18.79 Russia.................. 6.45 Denmark................. 17.73 Japan................... 5.68 Belgium................. 15.83 Bulgaria................ 5.57 Austria-Hungary......... 14.68 Serbia.................. 5.49 Rumania................. 13.24 Venezuela............... 5.51 Italy................... 13.09 India (British)......... 5.19 South Africa............ 12.93 Ecuador................. 4.62 Norway.................. 12.50 Peru.................... 3.17 Sweden.................. 11.59 Colombia................ 2.32 Greece.................. 11.02 Paraguay................ .57 7. #Money defined and reviewed#. Money may be defined as a material means of payment and medium of trade, generally accepted as the price-good and passing from hand to hand. The definition contains several ideas. The words "generally accepted" imply that money has a peculiar social character, is not an ordinary good. As a price-good, money itself must be a thing having value, otherwise it could not be accepted. Trade means the taking and giving of things of value. Money is, therefore, not merely an order for goods, as a card or paper requesting payment; it is itself a thing of value (tho this value may be due partly or solely to its possessing the money function). Such things as a telegram when transferring an order for the payment of money, as the spoken word, and as a mere promise to pay, are not money. Even checks and drafts are merely substitutes for money. Money passes from hand to hand, is a thing that can be handled, and is or can be bodily transported. The application of the definition is not always easy, for money shades off into other things that serve the same purpose and are related in nature. In many problems money appears to be at the same time like and unlike other things of value, and just wherein lies the difference often is difficult to determine. Even special students differ as to the border-line of the concept, but as to the general nature of money there is essential agreement. 8.# Metal money without or with coinage#. In antiquity the metals were used as money in bulk; that is, the amount was weighed at each transaction and the quality was tested whenever there was doubt.[4] In countries industrially backward, payments are still made in this manner. For some time after the discovery of gold in California, gold dust was roughly measured out on the thumb-nail. In shipments of gold to-day by bankers to settle international balances, metal may be in the form of bars that bear the mark of some well-known banking house. In all of the cases of this kind the gold is money in fact, but not by virtue of any act of government. The metal is simply a valuable good, the receiver of which values it according to its weight and fineness. This is true even when the government mint, for a small charge, tests and stamps the bars at the request of citizens. Very early it became the practice of governments to shape and stamp pieces of metal to be used as money, so as to indicate their weight and fineness. The act of shaping and marking metal for this purpose is called coinage.[5] The coinage by government had notable advantages in giving to the monetary units uniformity of size, fineness, and value, with the stamp that was readily recognized. But in its simplest form coinage in no way changed the value of the money, and any other mark equally plain put upon it would have served equally well, if only it had carried with it equal assurance of the quality and weight of the metal. 9. #Technical features of coinage#. For each kind of metal money there is an established _ratio of fineness_ for the more precious material, which is mixed with baser metals used as alloys. In the United States all gold and silver coins are made nine-tenths fine; in Great Britain, eleven-twelfths. The established weight of the gold dollar in the United States is 25.8 grains of standard gold which contain 23.22 grains of fine gold. The _limit of tolerance_ is the variation either above or below the standard weight or fineness that a coin is allowed to have when it leaves the mint. This is different for each of the principal coins, being about one-fifth of one per cent on a gold eagle. The _par of exchange_ between standard coins of different countries is the expression of the ratio of fine metal in them. Thus the par of exchange between the American dollar and the English sovereign (the "pound") is 4.866; that is, that number of dollars contains the same amount of fine gold as an English gold sovereign. The embossed design is merely to make the coins easily recognizable and difficult to counterfeit; and milled or lettered edges are to prevent clipping and otherwise abstracting metal from the coins. 10. #Seigniorage defined#. Coinage, as practised by early governments and rulers, came to be a function of great importance politically as well as economically. The right to issue money came to be one of the most essential prerogatives of sovereignty. The prince, king, or emperor stamped his own device or portrait upon the coin; hence the term seigniorage from _seignior_ (meaning lord or ruler). Seigniorage meant primarily the right the ruler, or the estate, has to charge for coinage, and hence it has come to mean also the charge made for coinage, and often, in a still broader sense, the profit made by the government in issuing any kind of money with a value higher than that of the materials (whether metal or paper) composing it. Coinage is rarely without charge, and often has been a source of revenue to the ruler. In antiquity and in the Middle Ages this right was frequently exercised by princes for their selfish advantage to the injury and unsettling of trade. This introduced a very great problem of value into the use of money. The coinage is said to be _gratuitous_ when no charge is made for coinage. Coinage is said to be _free_ if the subject or citizen may take bullion to the mint whenever he pleases, paying the usual seigniorage. Coinage is _limited_ if the government or ruler determines when coinage is to take place. Thus, coinage may be both free and gratuitous, when citizens are allowed to bring bullion whenever they please and have it converted into coins without charge or deduction. But coinage is free without being gratuitous when any citizen may bring metal to the mint, whenever he chooses, to be coined subject to the seigniorage charge. [Footnote 1: See Vol. I, pp. 15-16 and 50-53 for an introductory statement of the origin of money in connection with markets.] [Footnote 2: See ch. 5.] [Footnote 3: See Vol. I, p. 43, on the decline of barter.] [Footnote 4: "I will ... refine them as silver is refined, and will try them as gold is tried." Zech. xiii, 9. "I bought the field ... and weighed him the money, even seventeen shekels of silver. And I ... weighed him the money in the balances." Jer. xxxii, 9, 10. A shekel was 224 grains, troy weight, which is about equal to six-tenths of the pure metal in a silver dollar to-day and worth now about twenty-four cents in gold. At that time, however, the purchasing power of silver was many times greater than it now is.] [Footnote 5: From the French _coin_, in turn from Latin _cuneus_, wedge, suggestive either of an earlier wedge-shaped piece, or of a wedge-shaped mark on the piece. The German word _Münze_ is from the Latin _moneta_ (as is the English _mint_, the place where coins are made), which meant money, that name being taken from the temple of Juno, called _Moneta_, where coins were made.] CHAPTER 4 THE VALUE OF MONEY § 1. Standard-commodity money. § 2. Alternative uses of the money-good. § 3. Money as a valuable tool. § 4. Relative importance of money. § 5. Concept of the individual monetary demand. § 6. Concept of the community's monetary demand. § 7. The money-material in its commodity uses. § 8. The general level of prices. § 9. Effect of increasing gold production. § 10. The quantity theory of money. § 11. Interpretation of the quantity theory. § 12. Practical application of the quantity theory. § 1. #Standard-commodity money#. The actual money in use in almost every country to-day consists of a wide and confusing variety: gold, silver, nickel, copper, paper in various forms, issued by various authorities under various conditions as to amount and as to seigniorage. But among all the kinds, in each country some one kind is found standing preëminent and in a peculiar position, as the _standard_ money to which the value of all the other kinds of money is in some manner adjusted. Usually this standard money is composed of a material (gold or silver) which is a commodity; but there are many examples of paper money being for the time the standard. The difficulties of the money problem must be attacked at the point of standard-commodity money, where it is nearest to ordinary value problems and is less complicated than when the various other kinds of money and the various money substitutes are included. We mean by standard money that kind, no matter what its form, which serves in any country as the unit in which the value of other kinds of money is expressed. The standard usually is a quantity of metal of a certain weight and fineness, which, as a commodity, has a value also in industrial uses. Coins of this standard are called full, or real, money by some writers that deny the title of money to everything else. § 2. #Alternative uses of the money-good.# Let us consider the problem of money-value as it would present itself if only one kind of commodity money were in use. This doubtless was in large measure, if not entirely, the case for a time in early societies after one material had proved itself to be the best suited for the purpose. The history of many kinds of money may, we have seen, be traced back to a point where they were not money, but commodities with a direct value-in-use. Such were ornaments, shells, furs, feathers, salt, cattle, fish, game, and tobacco. Each of these materials has, in each situation, a value which is the reflection of its power to appeal to choice. Now, if to the commodity-use is added the money-use, this increases the demand for that good. No new theory is required to explain the value of a commodity as it gradually acquires the added use of a medium of trade. The money use is one that works no physical or visible change in goods except a slight unavoidable abrasion, and at any time a person receiving a piece of commodity money may retain it for its use-value, as food, ornament, tool, or weapon, or may retain it for a time and then spend it as money. This case of value is no more difficult than that of anything else having two or more uses. For example, cattle are used for milk, for meat, and as beasts of burden. Each of these uses is logically independent as a cause of value, yet all are mutually related, the value of cattle to a particular person being determined by the consideration of all the uses united into one scale of varying gratification. § 3. #Money as a valuable tool.# Money is often, by a figure of speech, called a tool. A tool is a piece of material taken into the hand to apply force to other things, to shape them or move them. Figuratively, this is what money does. A man takes it not to get enjoyment out of it directly, but to apply force, to move something, and that which he moves is the other commodity. Money thus (as money) is always an indirect agent. Adam Smith aptly likened money to the roads and wagons that transport goods, thus gratifying desires by putting goods into more convenient places. The fundamental use that money serves is to apportion one's income conveniently as it accrues and as it is spent. The use of money increases the value of goods by increasing the ease with which trade takes place. Like any tool or agent, money is valued for what it does or helps to do. It enhances the value of the goods that it buys and sells by dividing them into quantities convenient for use and by making them available at the right times. In the light of the principles of diminishing gratification and of time-preference it is clear that the amounts in which, and the times at which, goods are available have an essential bearing on their values. Money is the most successful device ever discovered for distributing the supplies of a journey along its course, and the goods of daily need over a period of time. The use of money as a storehouse of value by hoarding it is merely a more extreme case of keeping income until a time when it will have a greater value to the owner than it has in the present.[1] § 4. #Relative importance of money.# Because money is the general expression of purchasing power, and comes to symbolize all other wealth, it often assumes undue and exaggerated importance in men's eyes. Money is but one of many forms of wealth. It constitutes but a small percentage of the total wealth of a country, and it is far from being the most indispensable to human welfare. Yet its importance, as a whole, in determining the form of industrial organization is enormous. In a society without money, industrial processes would be very different, and trade would be hampered in manifold ways. A poor community has little money because it cannot afford more; it gets along with less money than is convenient just as it gets along with fewer agents of every other kind that it could use. Pioneers in a poor community where the average wealth is low cannot afford to keep a large number of wagons, plows, good roads, or schoolhouses. If the members of the community were wealthy enough each would have more of these and of other things, and the sum total of money would be greater. Great as is the convenience of money, poorer communities have to do with little of it. It is, therefore, a confusion of cause and effect when poor communities imagine that their poverty is due to lack of money. § 5. #Concept of the individual monetary demand.# Let us now seek to get in mind the idea of an _individual monetary demand,_ as that amount of money which at any time is required by an individual to make his purchases in expending his income. Every man may be thought of as having an average monetary demand, or his average individual cash reserve, throughout a period. A man with a salary of $50 a month paid monthly has ordinarily a maximum monetary demand of $50. If his expenditures are made in two equal parts, the one on pay-day, the other thirty days later, his average monetary demand during the month is a little over $25. If most of his purchasing is done in the first week of the month, his average monetary demand may be perhaps $10. Many a workman purchases on credit, running accounts at the stores for a month. Then on pay day he spends his entire month's wages the day he receives it, and goes without money for the rest of the month. His average monetary demand throughout the month would then be about equal to one day's wages. Evidently any person's cash reserve may be expressed as that proportion of his income that is to him of more value retained in money form for any period than if at once expended. In this conception of the individual monetary demand, must, however, be included not merely the demands of retail purchasers, made by themselves, but also those of all agencies such as merchants, bankers, and transportation companies, serving the needs of ultimate consumers of goods. The use of money may be necessary several times before a commodity completes its journey from producer to consumer. Of two persons whose expenditures of money are of the same kind and made at the same rate, the one having the larger amount of purchases to make has the larger monetary demand. But the amount of purchases does not always vary directly with the amount of real income[2]; for example, a farmer and a village mechanic may have at their disposal incomes equal in the quantities of goods, such as food, fuel, clothing, and house-uses (worth, let us say, $1000 for each), but the farmer would be getting a larger part of his goods directly from his farm and by his own labor, while the mechanic would be getting first a money income to be expended afterward for food, clothing, and rent. The mechanic would in this case have an average monetary demand much larger than the farmer. We see thus that a person's monetary demand at any time is that amount of money which rests in his possession as the necessary condition to making his purchases as he desires. Individual monetary demand varies in proportion directly to the delay, and inversely to the rapidity with which the individual passes the money on; and directly to the amount of the person's income that is received and expended in monetary form. § 6. #Concept of the community's monetary demand.# The monetary demand of a community at a given time is the sum of the monetary demands of the various individuals and enterprises. It is that stock of money which is necessarily present to effect the exchanges of the community in the prevailing manner at the existing price level. A single dollar as it circulates helps to supply the monetary demand of many individuals in turn: the more quickly each person spends the piece of money he receives, the greater its rapidity of circulation. Let us suppose that every piece of money passed from one person to another once each day. Then a dollar would, in the course of a business year (about 300 days), serve to buy (and at the same time to sell) $300 worth of goods. If the average purchases of each individual amounted to $1000 a year, the average monetary demand of each would be about 3-1/3 dollars. But every moment beyond the average time that any one kept money would increase his monetary demand. If he delayed a day, a week, or a month in spending the money, waiting until he could buy in some other market, or until a better time to buy, he would thus increase insomuch the amount of money needed to make the trade (on that scale of prices). It requires more slow dollars than swift dollars to make a given volume of purchases. Evidently the times of maximum monetary demand of the different individuals do not coincide; rather they alternate with each other, and the community's total monetary demand at a given time is a composite of the many individual variations. The amount of money that will remain in circulation in a community depends on several factors, the chief among them being the amount of goods to exchange, the methods of exchange, and the prevailing scale of prices. The amount of goods to be exchanged may change even when the amount produced is unaltered (e.g., a change from agricultural to industrial conditions). The methods of exchange may alter so as to require either more money (e.g., cash instead of credit business), or less money (e.g., use of bank checks displacing use of money by individuals). Or, apart from the other factors, the scale of prices may change as the conditions of gold and silver production are altered. The interrelations of gold and silver production, paper money issues, banking growth, and money-inflow and outflow in foreign exchanges give rise to the most interesting and important problems in the field of monetary theory. § 7. #The money-material in its commodity uses#. We are now prepared to take up the question: What determines the ratio at which money exchanges for other goods? And, as money comes to be the unit in which prices are generally expressed, the question becomes: What determines the general level of monetary prices? We have this problem in its simplest form in the case of a commodity-money such as gold. It may be looked upon merely as so much precious metal. The problem of its value as bullion is the same as that of the value of pig iron or of zinc, of meat or of potatoes. There is here no special monetary problem. The value of gold as bullion and its value as money are kept in equilibrium by choice and by substitution. The several uses of gold are constantly competing for it: its uses for rings, pens, ornaments, championship cups, photography, dentistry, delicate instruments, and as a circulating medium. If the metal becomes worth more in any one use, its amount is increased there and is correspondingly diminished in other uses.[3] When coinage is free and gratuitous[4] the standard money is a commodity. Such coinage is essentially but the stamp and certificate that the coin contains a certain weight and fineness of metal. Where coinage is free and gratuitous each coin will be worth the same as the bullion that is in it so far as the citizens exercise their choice. They will not long keep uncoined metal in their possession when it is worth more in the form of money, nor will they long keep money from the melting-pot when it is worth more as bullion. Yet there may be a slight disparity between the bullion value and the monetary value before the metal is converted into coin or the coin melted down into metal. This adjustment of the value of commodity-money to other things is made also on the side of supply, in the use of labor and material agents to produce the precious metals and to produce other things. Gold-mining, for example, is one among various industries to which men may apply their labor and their available material agents. Some mines are superior, others medium, others marginal which it barely pays to work. There is, therefore, a rise and fall of the margin of gold production with changes in prices and changes in the cost of production. Large new deposits of gold are discovered from time to time and new methods of extracting gold are invented. If, when it barely pays to work a mine, such changes occur, gold becomes worth less, and the poorer mines eventually must go out of use. As gold rises in value some abandoned mines again come into use. A similar variation may be noted in the utilization of marginal land, marginal factories, marginal forges, and marginal agents of every kind.[5] § 8. #The general level of prices#. We come now to a more peculiar aspect of the monetary value problem. In performing its function as general medium of trade, money determines the general level of monetary prices. We have the idea of a general level of prices whenever we contrast the price ratio of money to other commodities at one time with its ratio at another time. Now the monetary prices of the various commodities are constantly changing, and in somewhat different degrees, but on the average there may be a general trend upward or downward, and this is called a change in the general scale (or level) of prices, as contrasted with changes in the values of any two commodities in terms of each other. The general price level will be more fully discussed below (Chapter 6, section 3) in connection with the method of measuring by index numbers its changes. This brief explanation may, perhaps, be enough for our present purpose. Our question now is: What is the effect of changes in the quantity of money (considered apart from chance accompanying changes) upon the general level of prices? § 9. #Effect of increasing gold production#. Let us take a case where gold is in general use as money, and where for some time there has been no noticeable change in the amount of business, the methods of trade, and the general scale of prices. What would happen when new gold mines were found that were much easier to operate, and gold began to be produced at a much more rapid rate than formerly? The amount of gold as compared with other forms of wealth evidently would be increased. What if all the increase went into the industrial arts? The value of gold in its industrial uses would fall. Then a part of the increase must be diverted to monetary uses. When any man, by reason of the increasing gold supplies, gets a larger stock of money than he had before, the proportion formerly existing between his use for money and his monetary stock is altered. He has more money than meets his monetary demand at the existing prices. As he seeks to reduce his stock of money to due proportions by buying more goods, he thereby distributes a part of the excess of money to others. This bids up the prices of goods further until the total value of goods exchanged again bears the same ratio as before to the average monetary demand of each individual. Take an extreme case: if twice as many dollars get into circulation in a community, either some few men may have far more dollars than before, while others have nearly the same number; or every man may have his due proportion of the new supplies, just twice as many as before in proportion to his income. The latter result, "other things being equal," is the logical one after equilibrium has been restored. If prices of goods remained the same as before, there would be twice as many pieces of money available to effect the same number of trades at the same prices. There is no reason why each person should tie up twice as large a proportion of his income in the form of money. If, however, there is a concerted movement to spend the surplus money, there results a general bidding down of the value of money, a general bidding up of the prices of goods. At what point will this movement stop? The rational conclusion must be that, other things being equal, the new equilibrium will be established when the ratio between the value of money and the price of the goods which each individual is purchasing becomes the same as before. The money being doubled, prices must be doubled, and likewise for any other change in quantity. § 10. #The quantity theory of money.# This explanation of the effect of changes in the quantity of money in a country upon prices (the general scale of prices) is known as the quantity theory of money. This theory has, for a century, been very generally accepted by competent students of the money problem. It may be summed up thus: other things being equal, the value of the monetary unit, expressed in terms of all other commodities, falls as the quantity of money increases, and _vice versa_. That is, prices rise and fall in direct proportion to changes in the total quantity. This is a simple explanation of a complex and difficult set of conditions. The phrase, "other things being equal," betokens the statement of a tendency where there are several factors. The quantity theory explains what happens when there is a change in one of the factors--the number of pieces of money. There are three large sets of facts to be brought into relationship with each other in the quantity theory: (1) the amount of business, or the number of trades effected; (2) the rapidity of circulation, depending on the methods by which business is done; (3) the amount of money available. According to the quantity theory we must expect that, when conditions (1) and (2) remain fixed, the value of money will vary inversely as its quantity. This quantity theory may be expressed in the formula P = MR/N when P is the symbol for price, or the general price level, N is (1) above, R is (2), and M is (3). P, therefore, changes directly with either M or R, or inversely with N.[6] § 11. #Interpretation of the quantity theory.# The quantity theory must be carefully interpreted to avoid various misunderstandings of it that have appeared again and again in economic discussion. (1) It does not mean that the price level changes with the absolute quantity of money, independently of growth of population and of the corresponding growth in the volume of exchanges. (2) It is not a mere per capita rule to be applied at a certain moment to different countries. For example, Mexico may have $9 per capita and the United States $35, while average prices may not differ in anything like that proportion. But in these two countries not only the amounts of exchanges per capita but the methods of exchange and the rapidity of the circulation of money differ greatly.[7] (3) It cannot be applied as a per capita rule to the same country through a series of years, without taking account of the many changing factors. It is estimated that in 1800 the money stock was about $5 per capita in the United States, and in 1914 about $35[8], but average prices have not necessarily changed in the same ratio. In a period of years a country may change in a multitude of ways, in complexity of industry, modes of exchange, transportation, wealth, and income. These changes require, some larger, others smaller, per capita amounts of money to maintain the same level of prices. For example, the substitution of cash payments for book-credit in retail trade calls for a larger per capita stock of money; whereas an increased use of banks and checking accounts, by economizing the use of money, enables a smaller amount of money to maintain the same level.[9] (4) Tho applied originally to standard money, the quantity theory applies to all other kinds of money circulating side by side and at a parity of value, so far as these fulfil the definition of money and are not merely supplementary aids of money. These substitutes for, or supplements to, money enable each dollar to do more work, to circulate more rapidly. If the standard money alone were doubled in quantity, while the various forms of fiduciary money (smaller coins, bank notes, government notes) remained unchanged, the quantity of money as a whole would not be doubled. Indeed, in such a case, the method of exchange would be greatly altered. According to the quantity theory, therefore, prices would not be expected to double. § 12. #Practical application of the quantity theory#. Despite the number of changing factors affecting the methods of exchange and the amount of business, the quantity theory is a rule unable at any moment. These various factors change slowly, and the quantity theory answers the question: What general change occurs in prices as a result of the increase or decrease of the money in a given community at a given moment? Like the law of gravitation and the law of projectiles, the theory must be interpreted with relation to actual conditions. The quantity theory makes intelligible the great and rapid changes in prices which have followed sudden changes in the quantity of money. Inductive demonstration of broadly stated economic principles is usually difficult, but there have been many "monetary experiments" to teach their lessons. Many inflations and contractions of the circulating medium have occurred, now in a single country, again in the whole world; and the local or general results have helped to exemplify richly the working of the quantity principle. With the scanty yield of silver and gold mines during the Middle Ages, prices were low. After the discovery of America, especially in the sixteenth century, quantities of silver flowed into Europe. The great rise of prices that occurred was explained by the keenest thinkers of that day along the essential lines of the quantity theory, tho there were many monetary fallacies current at that time. The experience in England during the Napoleonic wars, when the money of England was inflated (by the forced issue of large amounts of bank notes) and prices rose above those of the Continent, led to the modern formulation of the theory by Ricardo and others about 1810. The discovery of gold in California and Australia in 1848-50 greatly increased the gold supply, and gold prices rose throughout the world. Between 1870 and 1890 the production of gold fell off while its use as money increased greatly, and prices fell. A great increase of gold production has occurred in the period since 1890. In part the rising prices since 1897 are explicable as the periodic upswing of confidence and credit, but in the main doubtless they are due to the stimulus of increasing gold supplies.[10] These are but a few of many instances in monetary history, which, taken together, make an argument of probability in favor of the quantity theory so strong as to constitute practically an inductive proof. [Footnote 1: The old-fashioned miser, however, withdraws his hoarded gold for the time from its usual monetary function as an indirect agent and treats it as a direct good yielding to him psychic income by its mere possession.] [Footnote 2: See on kinds of income, Vol. I, p. 26 ff.] [Footnote 3: See secs. 1 and 2 of this chapter; also Vol. 1, especially pp. 31-38 and 353-355.] [Footnote 4: This means actually gratuitous, for any real difficulty in getting metal to or from the mint operates as a cost in the conversion of bullion into money, or _vice versa_; e.g., the gold may be in Australia and the mint in London.] [Footnote 5: See Vol. I, pp. 138 ff. and 361 ff. FIG. 1. GOLD PRODUCTION OF THE WORLD, 1493-1914. The changes in gold production here shown have bearings not only upon problems of money, but in some respects upon nearly every modern economic problem. Compare in the present connection this figure with Figure 3, in Chapter 6, Section 4, showing changes in index numbers of prices. [Illustration: FIG. 1. GOLD PRODUCTION OF THE WORLD. 1493-1710. AVERAGES FOR PERIODS BEFORE 1870]] [Footnote 6: This formula is presented by E.W. Kemmerer in "Money and Prices" (2d ed., 1909), p. 15 ff.] [Footnote 7: See above, ch. 3, sec. 6, table.] [Footnote 8: PER CAPITA CIRCULATION OF MONEY (ESTIMATED) IN THE UNITED STATES IN VARIOUS YEARS. 1800......$4.99 1850......$12.02 1890......$22.82 1810...... 7.60 1860...... 13.85 1900...... 26.93 1820...... 6.96 1870...... 17.51 1910...... 34.33 1830...... 6.78 1880...... 19.41 1915...... 35.44 1840......10.91 ] [Footnote 9: On the function of deposits, see below, ch. 7, sec. 11.] [Footnote 10: Consult Figure 1 in ch. 4 and Figure 2 in ch. 6 for the graphic presentation of these and related facts.] CHAPTER 5 FIDUCIARY MONEY, METAL AND PAPER § 1. Commodity and fiduciary defined. § 2. Present monetary system of the United States. § 3. Saturation point of fractional money. § 4. Light-weight fractional coins. § 5. Worn coins and Gresham's law. § 6. A general seigniorage charge on standard money. § 7. Coinage on governmental account. § 8. The gold-exchange standard. § 9. Nature of governmental paper money. § 10. Irredeemable paper money. § 11. Theories of political money. § 1. #Commodity and fiduciary defined#. The actual moneys in circulation in every modern country consist of a wide variety of pieces, differing in denomination, physical size, shape and materials, mode of issue, source or authority of issue, and legal character. Among these kinds, one is the standard and is a commodity-money.[1] In such cases the coinage is free and nearly gratuitous, and the value of the money is kept close to parity with its value as bullion by changing bullion into coin, or coin back into bullion, whenever there is an appreciable difference between the values in the two uses. This adjustment is brought about by the free action of the people. The government, having declared what is the standard money unit, and having provided a mint to make coins, leaves it to citizens, acting from the ordinary competitive motives, to decide when they will reduce or increase the number of coins in circulation. The other kinds of money are not commodity-money and the materials of which they are made, whatever they be, are not worth as much in any other uses as they are in their present monetary form. Their value is always referred to, and adjusted to, that of the commodity-money, so long as any of it is in circulation. In contrast with commodity-money, these other kinds may be called fiduciary money. By fiduciary money we mean money that has not a commodity value equal to its money value, but which is generally accepted because each receiver has faith that others in turn will take it in the same way.[2] § 2. #Present monetary system of the United States.# Here is given a summary of the main features marking the present monetary system of the United States (in 1915). Not all this variety is essential to an efficient monetary system and several of the kinds survive as the result of historical accidents (political and legislative). But all are now kept in accord with the value of the gold coin which, it will be observed, is the only kind the amount of which is not artificially limited. Silver dollars are no longer coined, subsidiary silver and minor coins are issued only in exchange for other money, as are gold and silver certificates in exchange for gold or for silver, which they merely represent while in circulation. § 3. #Saturation point of fractional money.# Fiduciary money is that on which regularly the issuer makes a seigniorage charge.[3] Let us consider now the effect of seigniorage on the value of money. Fractional coins are those of smaller denominations than the standard unit of money, as shillings and pence in England, and half dollars, quarter dollars, dimes, nickels, and cents in America. Money to serve well a variety of uses must be of different denominations, and "small change" is necessary to make small purchases and for exact settlement in larger payments that are not multiples of the standard unit. The amount required (or most convenient to use) in each denomination of fractional coins is thus a more or less certain portion of each person's monetary demand, shaped by experience and fixed by habit. For example, within certain elastic limits of convenience quarters may be used for halves, and dimes for nickels (and _vice versa_); but each person has a point of preference. The total demand for each kind of change is the sum of the individual demands. This point where the amount of coins of any denomination (in relation to the whole monetary system) is most convenient may be called the saturation point of that kind of small change, up to which point the people prefer a share of their money in that form, and beyond which they will, if free to choose, exchange that kind for other denominations (smaller or larger). Each kind of money, as the cent, nickel, dime, has its own peculiar demand and its saturation point. MONETARY SYSTEM OF THE UNITED STATES, 1915 Metals | Weight, grains | Fineness |Ratio to gold 1. Gold coins | 25.8 | .90 | 100 2. Silver dollar | 412.5 | .90 | 15.988 to 1 3. Silver, subsidiary | 385.8 | .90 | 14.953 to 1 4. Nickel (5 cents) | 77.0 | .25 | ........... 5. Copper (1 cent) | 48.0 | .95 | ........... ---------------------------------------------------------------- Metal |Limit of issue | Legal tender for|Receivable for | | private debts |public dues 1. Gold coins | Unlimited. | Unlimited. |For all 2. Silver dollar |Ceased in 1905 | Unlimited. |For all 3. Silver, | Needs of the | $10 |$10 subsidiary | people | | 4. Nickel (5 cts.) | Do. | 25 cts. |25 cts. 5. Copper (1 ct.) | Do. | 25 cts. |25 cts. | \ | _Paper_ | | | 6. Gold certificates|Unlimited in ex-| No |For all |change for gold | | 7. Silver |In exchange for | No |For all certificates | silver $ | | 8. US notes | No new issues. |Unlimited. |Except customs 9. Treasury notes | No new issues. |Unlimited |For all of 1890 | | | 10. National bank |Capital of banks|No |Except customs notes. | | | 11. Federal reserve |Per cent. of |At banks of |For all notes. | gold reserves |reserve system | ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Metal |Exchangeable at |Redeemable at |In circulation |treasury for | treasury in |Oct 1, 1915 1. Gold coins |Gold certificates| |616,000,000 |U.S., Treas., or | | |Fed, res. notes | | 2. Silver dollar |Silver | |65,000,000 |certificates | | 3. Silver, |Minor coins |Lawful money[a]| subsidiary | |in sums or mul-|162,000,000 | |tiples of $20 | 4. Nickel | | Do. \ > 62,000,000[d] 5. Copper | | Do. / Paper | | | 6. Gold certificates| Subsidiary and |Gold coin |1,172,000,000 | minor coins | |[e] 7. Silver | Silver and |Silver dollars | 482,000,000[f] certificates | minor coins | | 8. US notes | Subsidiary and |Gold | 337,000,000 | minor coins | | 9. Treasury notes of| Silver and |Gold | 2,200,000 1890 | minor coins | | 10. National bank |Subsidiary silver|Lawful money[b]|761,000,000 notes |and minor coins | | 11. Federal reserve | Gold[c] |Gold[c] |133,000,000 notes | | | ------------------------------------------------------------------- Total[g]...........................................3,792,200,000 [Footnote a: "Lawful money" includes gold coin, silver dollars, U.S. notes, and Treasury notes.] [Footnote b: Redeemable also in lawful money at bank of issue.] [Footnote c: Redeemable also at Federal reserve banks in gold.] [Footnote d: Not usually included in the estimates of total money in circulation.] [Footnote e: Represented dollar for dollar by gold kept in the U.S. treasury.] [Footnote f: Represented dollar for dollar by silver kept in the U.S. treasury.] [Footnote g: Besides, there were about $312,000,000 in the U.S. Treasury not offset by outstanding paper. The total money stock (in circulation and in the Treasury, eliminating certificates representing gold and silver), was about $4,233,000,000, of which 70 per cent was metal (largely represented in circulation by paper certificates) and 30 per cent was paper. Of the 70 per cent 50 was gold, 18 was silver, and 2 was copper and nickel.] § 4. #Light-weight fractional coins.# The standard metal is usually too valuable to be suitable for coins of the smaller denominations. Therefore, when gold is the standard, copper, nickel, and silver remain in restricted use. But when coins of these metals are issued at weights corresponding with their bullion value, difficulties arise. Not only are they too heavy for convenience, but with every slight rise in their bullion value as compared with that of the standard metal, they become worth more as bullion than as coin and begin to disappear from circulation. This happened often throughout the Middle Ages and until the nineteenth century. The attempt was generally made to coin gold and silver at a ratio of weight corresponding exactly to their market values at a given moment and, every time the market conditions varied, the best full-weight coins of one of the two metals were taken out of circulation. [4]The country thus suffered for lack either of the larger gold coins or of fractional coins. At length, to remedy this difficulty, fractional silver coins, often called "token coins," were issued, in limited numbers, of less than full proportionate weight and bullion value. This plan, having been partially tried, was generally adopted by the United States in 1853 at a time when the silver dollar of 371.25 fine grains was legally rated at the same value as the gold dollars of 23.22 grains, and was freely coined. The fractional coins were made a little over 6 per cent lighter per dollar than the dollar coin; two half-dollars or four quarters or ten dimes contained 93.52 cents worth of silver. Since then silver bullion has become worth much less in terms of gold, and for years past the bullion value of the silver in a dollar of silver small change has been between 40 and 60 cents. Why then has the fractional coinage a monetary value equal to the standard money, dollar for dollar? The answer is, because it is artificially limited in quantity, so that it does not pass the point of saturation in the field of its use. Its value rests on its monetary use; it is fiduciary money, not commodity money. It is limited simply by letting "the needs of the people" determine its amount. This is done by issuing it only in exchange for other money of the larger denominations, and by redeeming it in other money on demand. Fractional coins are issued on the request of banks in exchange for standard money. One needing "change" gets it at the bank; when the bank finds its supply falling short it gets more from the government mints. As business increased in 1898, the demand for nickels, dimes, and quarters became unprecedented, and the mints worked night and day to supply them. If these coins were made in great quantities and forced into circulation by the government through paying them out to creditors and officials, their quantity would become excessive and they would fall in value (be at a discount) compared with standard money. But as this is not done, and as, moreover, they are redeemed on demand at the treasury (and practically at every bank and post office) in other money, any slight tendency to depreciation in any locality is at once corrected. As it is, the government makes a seigniorage profit on the fiduciary coinage, as shown in the following table. [5] The fractional coinage is maintained at a parity with the standard money in accordance with the monopoly principle, expressed in the limitation of the amount. _Receipts:_ Earnings (charges for refining, assaying, manufacture for other countries, etc.)......................... $392,000 Bullion recovered, by-products, old materials, etc... 143,000 Profits on seigniorage, subsidiary silver............ 3,013,000 Profits on seigniorage minor coinage and recoinage... 2,387,000 ---------- Total receipts.......................................$5,935,000 _Expenditures_: All kinds............................................$1,138,000 ---------- Net revenues from mint service.....................$4,797,000 § 5. #Worn coins and Gresham's law.# Coins may be light-weight as the result of another cause--namely, the abrasion (wearing off) of the coins in circulation. Nearly always when this has occurred the worn coins have still been accepted as money,[6] and ordinarily without any depreciation. That is to say, they have a value as money greater than the value of the bullion that is in them. Everybody takes them without hesitation as readily as if they were full weight. If, however, at this point, new full-weight coins are put into circulation, these at once disappear while the old ones remain in circulation--a fact that has always been somewhat mystifying. In explanation of the phenomenon was formulated "Gresham's law" of the circulation side by side of coins of different bullion value: bad money drives out good money. Sir Thomas Gresham (whose name has but recently been given to this so-called law), explained the principle to Queen Elizabeth when counseling her regarding the recoinage of the debased money of the realm as was done in 1560. He showed that when old, worn coins were in circulation and the mint began putting out full-weight coins, the old lighter ones remained as money, while the new ones, being heavier, were picked out by jewelers and by those needing to send money abroad. Gresham's law has a paradoxical wording and is frequently misunderstood. "Bad" money means not counterfeit money, but merely money that has not as great a bullion value compared with its money value as some other kind of money then in circulation. But not every piece of such money will drive out every piece of good money. The law applies only under certain conditions, and within certain limitations. The "good" will be driven out only if the total amount of money in circulation is in excess of what would be needed if all were of full weight and of best quality. Paradoxically speaking, if there is not too much of the bad money, it is just as good as the good money. But even if good money is driven out, it may not leave the country. It may be hoarded, or be picked out by banks and savings-institutions to retain as their reserves, or be melted for use in the arts. Gresham's "law" becomes thus a practical precept. As applied to the plan of recoinage it is: Withdraw the worn coins as rapidly (in equal numbers) as you put new coins into circulation. The continued circulation of "bad" money along side of "good" money (light-weight along side of full-weight coins), so long as the total number of coins is not in excess of the money demand for full-weight coins, is explained thus on just the same principle as is the circulation at parity of a light-weight fractional coinage, in the preceding section. § 6. #A general seigniorage charge on standard money.# The fiduciary coinage problem presents itself under a some-what different guise in case a seigniorage charge is made on all coinage, even of that metal used as the standard unit. In this case coinage is free but not gratuitous. In this case no bullion is brought to the mint unless the coined pieces the owners receive have a value equal to the bullion value plus the seigniorage charge. The power to impose a seigniorage charge is a monopoly power. Artificial limitation is present. Evidently, the number of coins that can be issued without depreciation is limited to that number which would circulate if they were made full weight without a seigniorage charge.[7] This number of pieces of full-weight metal is the saturation point of the money demand of the country. If more than that could in any way be put into circulation it would become worth less as money than as bullion, and would be melted or exported. Assume that this full supply of money at a given moment is 100,000 pieces or dollars; then consider the effect of imposing a seigniorage charge of ten per cent on further coinage. The government alone having the right of coinage, the need of money would give the circulating medium a monopoly value. The value of the money would rise. When it had risen until the coin would buy any more than one-ninth more bullion than was in it, the citizens would begin to take metal to the mint. After the ten per cent charge was taken out they would receive a coin which, the containing one-tenth less bullion, would be worth very nearly the same as the metal taken to the mint. No considerable depreciation could take place unless the volume of business fell off so that less money was needed than before. In that case there would be no outlet for the excess of coins until they fell to their bullion value, i.e., till they lost the entire value of the seigniorage, the monopoly element in them. Melting or exporting them before that point was reached would cause to the owner the loss of whatever element of seigniorage value they contained. We thus have arrived at the general principle of seigniorage: when the number of coins issued is limited to the saturation point, a seigniorage charge does not reduce their money value; they are worth more as money than as bullion. And this holds good of a large seigniorage charge as well as of a small one, even up to the extreme limit of a charge of 100 per cent. In this last case the government would retain the whole of the bullion brought to it and would give in return a piece of money made of material (metal or paper) with a negligible value. § 7. #Coinage on governmental account.# The fiduciary coinage problem may be presented also when coinage is not free, and the times and amount of coinage are determined by law or by legally authorized officials. In this case the bullion must be obtained by purchase in the open market (and paid for by some form of legal money, or by bonds). Coinage is then said to be "on governmental account." Now, assuming that the normal money-demand (the volume of business, or sum of exchanges) remains unchanged, let us consider what will result if the government begins to issue money in this way, when, as in the preceding case, 100,000 units of full-weight money are in circulation. This action might be taken most simply by recoining all the full-weight pieces that came into the treasury, making them contain 1/10 less precious metal, and paying out 1111 pieces for every 1000 received. Every time this was done there would be an excess of 111 pieces above the normal money-demand, and 111 full-weight pieces would be exported or melted (Gresham's law). The process (in strict theory) may be repeated 90 times, at which point 90,000 full-weight coins have been received, 100,000 light-weight coins have been issued to take their place and 10,000 full-weight coins have gone out of circulation. The total seigniorage charge would be 1-10 of 90,000, or 9000 units. No depreciation has taken place, and the pieces, by reason of their limitation, bear a money value in excess of the bullion that is in them. Now the government, with the next 1000 pieces collected by taxation, could buy enough bullion (in the open market) to make another 1111. The excess of 111 pieces could not now be promptly removed by the melting down or exporting of 111 coins, for all those remaining in circulation have a bullion value 1/10 below their money value. As this process is repeated the excess must continue to grow from 100,000 to 111,111, and the value of the money piece in terms of bullion continue to fall from 10 to 9. At this point the 111,111 pieces would contain just the same amount of bullion and have just the same value as the 100,000 pieces did before. Thereafter no further profit would accrue to the government from issuing coins of that weight. To make a further profit it must again reduce the amount of pure metal in the coin. This process was often repeated in the Middle Ages. A ruler, either by making a higher seigniorage charge or by coining on his own account, debased the quality or reduced the weight of the money of his realm. For a time the new coins, having the same monetary use, circulated at par with the old coins. The ruler, pleased with this almost magical power of getting a revenue with little trouble, continued to issue coins until suddenly the heavier coins began to be exported or melted, and the value of the other money fell, to the mystification alike of the prince and of his people. The reason is now perfectly plain: the number of coins was not kept within the proper limits and they went down to their bullion value. The only way a further profit could be made in this way was to debase the coin again. By successive steps the coinage came to consist almost entirely of cheaper alloy. § 8. #The gold-exchange standard.# In a number of silver-using countries and colonial dependencies near the end of the nineteenth century, the fluctuations of the value of silver in terms of gold was a constant source of difficulty in the payment of foreign obligations to gold standard countries. Yet there were strong reasons in the habits of the people and in the industrial conditions of the country to forbid the adoption of gold and the disuse of silver as the actual money in circulation. The method adopted, that of the gold-exchange standard, involved these features. (1) Closing the mints of the country to the free coinage of silver, as was done most notably in India in 1893 and in Mexico in 1904. (2) Adoption of a fixed ratio of exchange between the silver coins in circulation and some gold coin which is made the standard of value in all transactions (as the dollar or the pound sterling), the money in circulation thus being all or nearly all of a fiduciary nature. (3) Regulation and limitation of the amount of money in circulation so that a fixed parity between it and gold may be maintained (a) by the limited issue of coins only on governmental account, (b) by the sale, at a fixed rate, of foreign exchange bills payable abroad in the standard unit, the money paid for the bills being withheld from circulation in a special reserve, (c) by the purchase of foreign bills of exchange at a fixed rate, thus paying out and putting again into circulation some of the fiduciary money in the special reserve. These monetary changes furnish numerous illustrations and demonstrations of the quantity theory of money as applied to the entire circulating medium of a country.[8] §9. #Nature of governmental paper money.# The problem of seigniorage presents itself in its most extreme form when money is made of paper. Paper money is issued either by a government or by a bank. We will consider governmental notes here, reserving until Chapter 7 the case of bank notes. The issue of paper money in some cases grew out of the practice of debasing metal. However this may have been, governmental paper money may be looked upon as money for which a seigniorage of one hundred per cent is charged. The gain of seigniorage from paper money is greater and is just as easily secured as that from coinage of metals. Governmental paper money is called "political money," in contrast with commodity money. However, all coins that contain an element of seigniorage, or monopoly value, are to that degree "political money." The typical paper money is irredeemable; that is, it cannot be turned into bullion money on demand. It is simply put into circulation, usually with the "legal-tender" quality. Money has the _legal-tender_ quality (as the term is used in the United States) when, according to law, it must be accepted by citizens as a legal discharge for debts due them, unless otherwise provided in the contract. The prime purpose of making money legal tender is to reduce the danger of dispute as to payments; but another purpose often has been to force people to use a depreciated money whether they would or not. The purpose of the issue of political money is usually to gain the profit of seigniorage for the public treasury, and often it has been the desperate expedient of nearly bankrupt governments. Governmental paper money differs from bank notes in that its value does not necessarily depend on the promise of redemption by the issuer. It differs from promissory notes and bonds in that its value is not based on the interest it yields, but mainly on its monetary uses. The issue of paper money may save the government the payment of interest on an equal amount of bonds. The promise to receive paper in payment for taxes or for public lands may help to maintain its value by reducing its quantity, but nothing short of its prompt redemption in standard coins makes it truly redeemable. § 10. #Irredeemable paper money.# The most notable examples of paper money in the eighteenth century were the American colonial currencies, the continental notes, and the French assignats. In all the American colonies before the Revolution, notes or bills of credit were issued which were in most cases legal tender. Parliament forbade the issues, but to no effect. Without exception they were issued in large amounts and without exception they depreciated. The continental notes were issued by the Continental Congress in the first year of the war (1775), and for the next five years. The object at first was to anticipate taxes, and it was expected that the states would redeem and destroy the notes, but this was not done. The notes passed at par for a time, but depreciated rapidly as their number increased. It has been estimated that the country had less than $10,000,000 of coin before the war, and when, in 1780, over $200,000,000 of notes were in circulation they were completely discredited: hence the phrase "not worth a continental." Specie then quickly came back into use. A few years later the leaders of the French Revolution, failing to learn the lesson of the American experience, issued, on the security of land, notes called assignats in such enormous quantities that they became worth no more than the paper on which they were printed. The paper money issued under the English bank restriction act of 1797-1820 is especially notable because it gave rise to the controversy which did much to develop the modern theory of the subject. Parliament forbade the Bank of England to redeem its notes in coin because the government wished to borrow the coin the bank held. The result was the issue of a large amount of bank money not subject to the ordinary rule of redemption on demand. It was virtually governmental paper money. The notes depreciated and drove gold out of circulation, and it was not until 1821 that specie payments were definitely resumed. The United States, under the Constitution, did not try legal-tender paper money till 1862 when paper notes (called greenbacks, because of the color of ink with which the reverse side was printed) were first issued, later increased to a total of about $450,000,000. Other interest-bearing notes were issued with the legal-tender quality and circulated as money to some extent. Greenbacks depreciated in terms of gold, and gold rose in price in terms of greenbacks until, in June, 1864, it sold at 280 a hundred. Fourteen years elapsed after the war before these notes rose to par, in terms of gold (in December, 1878), and they became legally redeemable in gold January 1, 1879. This was called "the resumption of specie payments." Almost every nation has at some time issued political money. During the Franco-Prussian War in 1870, France, through the medium of its great state bank, made forced issues of notes of a political nature, which only slightly depreciated. Many countries--Russia, Austria, Portugal, Italy, and most of the South and Central American republics--have had or still have depreciated paper currencies. At once, at the outbreak of the great war in 1914, the governments of the warring nations began to exercise a strict control over the issue of paper money, sought to gather into the public treasury all the specie, and to give paper (either governmental notes or bank notes) practically a forced circulation, making it almost the sole circulating medium. The values of the paper moneys have fallen in all the countries, especially in Germany and Russia. In such cases the money partakes somewhat of the characters both of bank notes and of political money. Resorted to in desperate extremities, political money has usually proved to be a costly experiment. A result usually unintended is the derangement of business and of the existing distribution of incomes. The rapid and unpredictable changes in prices gives opportunity for speculative profits, but injure legitimate business. This incidental effect on debts and industry offers the main motive to some citizens for advocating the issue of paper money. It is peculiarly liable to be the subject of political intrigue and of popular misunderstanding. It is this danger, more than anything else, which makes political money in general a poor kind of money. § 11. #Theories of political money.# There are two extreme views regarding the nature of paper money, and a third which endeavors to find the truth between these two. First is that of the cost-of-production theorists, who declare that government is powerless to influence value, or to impart value to paper by law. They deny that there is any other basis for the value of money than the cost of the material that is in it. Money made of paper, on a printing press, has a cost almost negligibly small, and, therefore, they say it can have no value. The facts that it does circulate and that it is treated as if it had value are explained by the cost-of-production theorists as follows: while the paper note is a mere promise to pay, with no value in itself, it is accepted because of the hope of its redemption, just as any private note. Depreciation, according to this view, is due to loss of confidence; the rise toward par measures the hope of repayment. Taking a very different view, the extreme fiat-theorists assert that the government has unlimited power to maintain the value of paper money by conferring upon it the legal-tender quality. The meaning of _fiat_ is "let there be," and the fiat-money advocates believe that the government has but to say, "Let there be money," to impart value to a piece of paper. The typical fiat-money advocates in the United States were the "Greenbackers," who wished to retain the greenbacks issued in the Civil War and to increase the amount greatly. They saw in paper money an unlimited source of income to the government. They proposed the payment of the national debt, the support of the government without taxes, and the loan of money without interest to citizens. All might live in luxury if the extreme fiat-money theorists could realize their dreams. The depreciation that has taken place in nearly every case where government notes have been issued, the fiat-theorists declare to be due to a mild enforcement of the law of legal tender. To them the fact that paper money may circulate for a time at par appears a reason why it always should. They do not recognize that there is a saturation point in the use of money, and that its use is still further limited by the fear of larger issues. The almost universally accepted opinion among economists rejects both of these views, tho recognizing in each a certain limited aspect of the truth. The cost-of-production view quite overlooks the features in which paper money differs from ordinary credit paper. The value of one's promises to pay depends on his reputation and his resources; the resources constitute the basis of value. Bonds have value because they yield interest and are payable at a definite time in standard money. But paper money, lacking this basis for its value, has another basis in its money use, in its power to buy goods. The theory of paper money here outlined makes the value of paper money a special case of monopoly value. As the power of any private monopoly over price is relative, not absolute, so is that of the government over the value of political money. The money use is the source of value of the paper notes. It is this which gives the economic condition for value in paper money and strictly limits the power of the government--a fact overlooked by the fiat-theorists. Business conditions remaining unchanged, the limit of possible issue without depreciation is the number of units in circulation before the paper money was issued, the saturation point of full-weight and full-value coins. Whenever governments have failed to stop at that point, paper money has depreciated. But under wise and honest control and regulation political paper money might serve the monetary function very effectively. [Footnote 1: The problem of a legally authorized double standard, bimetallism, is treated in the next chapter. An irredeemable paper money may be, for a time, the standard money.] [Footnote 2: The faith _(fides)_ is not always that the issuer of the money (whether it be a bank or the government) will redeem the money on demand at any future time; for fiduciary money may circulate while irredeemable, that is, either carrying no promise of redemption in the standard money or in fact not being redeemed. Yet undoubtedly actual redemption on demand or a good prospect of future redemption is one of the circumstances stimulating the faith and the readiness of each person in turn to receive fiduciary money.] [Footnote 3: In the broad sense as above defined, ch. 3, sec. 10.] [Footnote 4: See next section on worn coins.] [Footnote 5: Receipts and Expenditures of Mint Service in 1914:] [Footnote 6: It makes no difference what may be deemed the cause of their acceptance; whether it be habit, public opinion in business circles, or the act of law making them a legal tender; the essential thing is that they continue to be accepted as money.] [Footnote 7: In this and following numerical examples no account is taken of the possibility that the standard metal may depreciate in the world market in terms of all other goods as a result of its diminished use as money in one or more countries. This properly belongs in a complete theoretical treatment of the subject.] [Footnote 8: See "Modern Currency Reforms" (1916), by E.W. Kemmerer, professor of Economics and Finance in Princeton University, for a detailed treatment of this remarkable series of monetary changes, probably unequaled in instructiveness to the student of monetary theory.] CHAPTER 6 THE STANDARD OF DEFERRED PAYMENTS § 1. Relative positions of gold and silver; historical. § 2. Gold production, first half of nineteenth century. § 3. Concept of the general price level. § 4. Index numbers. § 5. Gold production and monetary legislation, 1850 to 1879. § 6. Definition of the standard of deferred payments. § 7. Increasing importance of the standard. § 8. Fluctuating standard and the interest-rate. § 9. Notable changes in prices. § 10. Nature and object of bimetallism. § 11. The movement for national bimetallism in America. § 12. Rising prices after 1896. § 13. Defectiveness of the gold standard. § 14. Various ideal standards suggested. § 15. The tabular standard. § 1. #Relative positions of gold and silver: historical.# It is not possible within the limits of our space to enter here into the details of the world's monetary history. It must suffice for our purpose to sketch briefly the period preceding the nineteenth century. Both gold and silver were used as moneys in Europe in the Middle Ages, tho silver was much the more common. The two metals continued to be used side by side in Europe and in the new settlements in America, silver for the smaller and gold for many of the larger transactions. Both were made legalized forms of money (and standards of deferred payments) in units of specified weights and fineness, the weights bearing a certain ratio to each other. Thus it was possible for a debtor to discharge his obligations with that one of the two metals that at the moment was the cheaper at the legal ratio. Fluctuations in the prices of gold in terms of silver were at times such as to cause a large part of the full-weight coins of one or the other metal to leave circulation (in accordance with Gresham's law). So from time to time the ratio was slightly changed by law in the various countries to permit the circulation or to bring back the kind of money that had been undervalued in terms of the other. But it is a very remarkable fact that from the time of Xenophon until the discovery of America (a period of nearly 2000 years), the market ratio of silver to gold bullion in Europe remained pretty close to 10 to 1, being only temporarily altered by sudden and unusual occurrences. From 1492 to 1660 the ratio changed to 15 to 1, where it remained with remarkable stability until about the year 1800. At the establishment of the mint of the United States in 1792 that ratio was found to exist. Men had come to look upon the ratio of 15 to 1 as the natural order, determined (it was sometimes said) providentially by the deposit of the two metals in due proportion in the earth's surface. But as we now see it, this in part was mere chance and in part was due to the equalizing effect of the wide use of both metals so that the one could be easily substituted for the other in case of a divergence of the market ratio from the legal ratio as money. From the year 1500 until 1800 the Western hemisphere was the main source of the precious metals, the alluvial deposits were widely scattered, were gradually discovered, were usually found in small quantities, and were extracted in primitive ways. The existing stock of precious metals, gold and silver, more than other products of mine and field, is at any time the accumulation of many years' production, and is changed very little, proportionally, by a large change of output in any year or short period. It changes in volume as does a glacier fed by the snows of many years, not as does a river, filled by a single rainfall. For a short time after the discovery of America (from 1493 to about 1544) the average coining value[1] of the world's production of gold, nearly all found in America, was about 1-1/2 times as great as that of silver; but thereafter for three centuries from about 1545, the annual value of silver produced was between 1-1/2 to 4 times as great as that of gold, averaging about twice as great. Silver was the money chiefly in use in the ordinary transactions in all of the principal countries of the world. § 2. #Gold production, first half of nineteenth century.# We have now to note some great changes in the production of gold in the nineteenth century, changes both absolute and relative to that of silver. The market ratio of the two metals had been gradually changing before 1792 and continued to change. Gold was slowly becoming more valuable in terms of silver and the legal ratio of 15 to 1 in the United States (at which both metals were admitted free to the mint) proved to have undervalued gold. Gold largely left circulation and silver and bank notes formed the greater part of our circulating medium. Then, in 1834, soon after the production of gold had begun to increase somewhat more rapidly than that of silver, the legal ratio of the United States was changed to 16 to 1. This brought a good deal of gold back into circulation and gradually drove out most of the silver (the heavier coins disappearing first). In the decade 1841-50 the average annual value of the gold production had, for the first time since the early sixteenth century, exceeded that of silver. Then, from 1848 to 1850, came the great gold discoveries in California and in Australia. In 1851 the value of gold produced was one and one-half times that of silver; in 1852 was three times, and in 1853 four times as great; and then slowly declined, but continued every year as late as 1870 to be over twice as great. This caused the displacement of silver by gold and drove out a large proportion of the silver coins of smaller denominations. This led to the law of 1853, authorizing subsidiary coinage (on government account only) of lighter weight.[2] Let us observe the effect on prices that was brought about by the discoveries of 1848-49, and, first, we must consider briefly the method of measuring and expressing general changes in prices. § 3. #Concept of the general price level.# The price of any good is some other good or group of goods given for it in trade.[3] The standard unit of money coming to be the most convenient expression for price (whether or not money be actually passed from hand to hand in that particular trade), prices usually are monetary prices, and more specifically are prices in gold, or in silver, or in whatever constitutes the standard money unit. But the price of each good is a definite, separate fact, which expresses the ratio at which that commodity is sold. The price of any particular kind of goods may fluctuate in either direction as compared with the prices of other goods at the same time. For example, iron and many other goods may rise while wheat and many other goods fall in price. There is, therefore, no such thing as an actual _general_ change in the prices of goods in terms of money, but it may be seen that the prices of large classes of goods, often of nearly all goods, change upward or downward at the same time and in the same general direction. We thus have need to distinguish between changes in the valuations of particular kinds of goods in terms of each other and general changes in the valuation of a number of different goods in terms of the monetary unit. To get some idea of whether such a general trend occurs, the algebraic sum of all the changes in the particular prices of a selected group of goods may be taken, and for convenience this may be reduced to an average price (by dividing the sum by the number of articles). Such an average is called a general price and, when comparing it with the general price of another time, we speak of changes up or down in _general prices,_ or in the _general scale of prices,_ or in the _price level._ When gold is the standard unit, its value is the converse of general prices; as prices go up the value of gold goes down, and gold is said to _depreciate_. As prices go down, the value of gold goes up and gold is said to _appreciate_. Rising prices mean falling value of gold (and at the same time falling purchasing power), and _vice versa._ [Illustration: FIG. 2. INDEX NUMBERS OF PRICES. The four series of prices here shown begin at different periods; the American in 1840 (Aldrich report 1840-1889 and Bureau of Labor from 1890 on); the English in 1846; the German in 1851; the French in 1857. We have adjusted each of these series to a base of the average prices for 1890-1899, in accord with the basic period used by the American Bureau of Labor. The reader must be on his guard against misunderstanding the diagram. It does not represent the heights of the prices of the different countries compared with each other either at any one date or for the entire period. For example, the heights of the lines at the year 1860, do not indicate that American prices were lowest and French the highest at that date, or, indeed, tell anything whatever directly on that point. The various series of prices are compared within themselves, every year with the average of the prices for 1890-1899 in each country, respectively. The only comparison allowable, therefore, between the several lines, is that between the fluctuations, both as to their times and as to their directions, both as to the larger tidal movements and as to the lesser wave-like movements within the business cycles. The Figure does indicate that both American and German prices have risen somewhat as compared with the English and French prices, since the period before 1860. This figure should be studied in connection with Figure 1, in ch. 4, sec. 9, on gold production. The Figures indicate that the rapidly growing monetary use of gold offset a large part of the effects of increasing gold production between 1840-1860 and 1884-1914. Between 1884 and 1896 prices actually continued to fall after gold production had begun to climb. Likewise the growing monetary use of gold accentuated strongly the effects, between 1873 and 1883 of a comparatively small decrease in gold production.] § 4. #Index numbers.# The process of calculating general prices and changes in them has in it, inevitably, something of arbitrariness and incompleteness. For not all prices can be included, but only those of articles of somewhat standardized grades and those that are pretty regularly sold in markets where prices are publicly quoted. Any list of articles that can be selected is of unequal importance to different persons and classes of persons, at different places, at different times, and for different purposes. And yet the study of general prices as shown by any broadly selected list reveals changes which in some measure affect the interests of every member of the community. General prices are conveniently compared from one time to another through the use of index numbers. An _index number_ of any article is the per cent which its price at any certain date is of its price at another date (or of the average for a series of prices) taken as a base or standard. Thus if the average price of cotton in the base year were 10 cents (taken as 100) and the price rose to 12 cents, the index number would be 120. _A tabular index number_ is the per cent which the price of a selected group of articles at any certain date is of the price of the same group of articles at a date which has been taken as the base.[4] The principal index numbers of the leading countries are here shown. The fact that from 1862 to 1879 inclusive prices in the United States were expressed in an irredeemable paper standard makes comparisons for that period misleading. A better idea is obtained by using as the base for each of the several series, the average of prices in each country for the years 1890 to 1899. § 5. #Gold production and monetary legislation, 1850 to 1879#. The unprecedented increase in gold production between 1849 and 1853, and the continuance of production in volume about four-fold as great as that of the decade 1840-49 was reflected at once in a rise of prices. This was a period of prosperity in business culminating in the crisis of 1857 (felt more or less in all the leading countries). This prosperity accelerated the effect of increasing quantities of the standard money. Credit was stimulated and the rate of circulation and the efficiency of money were increased. Prices rose to a temporary maximum in 1857 and then fell as a great international financial crisis occurred. The great new supplies of gold had been readily taken ("absorbed") into the monetary circulation of the world, to meet the needs of rapidly growing commerce and industry. In the European countries,[5] prices in terms of gold, tho fluctuating somewhat, kept at about the same level from 1860 to 1870. The years 1871 and 1872 were very prosperous and showed rapidly rising prices which reached a maximum in 1873, when a financial panic occurred. In that very year, just as the gold production for the first time since 1851 had fallen below $100,000,000, several notable changes in monetary legislation were made which made gold more important in the circulation of a number of countries. In 1873 Germany made gold the standard throughout the new German Empire (having prepared the way by legislation in 1871 which made gold a legal tender alongside of silver), and provided that silver was thenceforth to be used only in the subsidiary coinage. The same year Belgium, and the next year the other countries of the Latin Union (France, Switzerland, and Italy) took steps which resulted in demonetizing silver; that is, in limiting its coinage to governmental account, and in making gold their one standard money. The United States at that time had neither gold nor silver regularly in circulation (except in California), and there was a long-continued discussion of "a return to specie payments," which meant the return to a metallic standard, and the redemption of greenbacks on demand. Meantime in 1873 a law was passed making the gold dollar "the unit of value," and dropping out the standard silver dollar from the list of coins authorized to be issued at the mint.[6] From 1873 until 1879, prices (in greenbacks) were falling in this country very rapidly because the country with the increase in population, wealth, and business, was "growing up to" its unchanging currency supply. For a like reason at the same time gold prices throughout the world were falling. While this country was lowering its level of prices from an inflated paper money to a gold commodity basis, the gold basis itself was sinking to a lower level. The very demand of our treasury and banks for gold caused the retention of our own gold product (which between 1864 and 1876 had been nearly all exported) and required an enormous net importation of gold between 1878 and 1888. This reduced suddenly by one-half the amount available each year from our production for the rest of the world. § 6. #Definition of the standard of deferred payments.# These various changes in the purchasing power of the standard money had great effects upon industrial conditions. Particularly had they shifted the positions and claims of debtors and creditors, because of the enormous importance of money as "the standard of deferred payments," Let us now get a more definite understanding of that term. As a medium of exchange, money comes to be the unit in which most prices are expressed and compared; in other words, it becomes the common denominator of prices.[7] This makes it also the most convenient unit in which to express the amount of credit transactions and of existing debts.[8] A credit transaction is a trade lengthened in time; one party fulfils his part of the contract, the other party promises to give an equivalent at a later date. The equivalent may be in any kind of goods; for example, in barter one may part with a horse on the promise of a cow to be received later; or a small horse on the promise of a large one; or a flock of sheep on the promise of its return at the end of the year with a part of the increase of the flock. A simple standard in which to express the debt is the thing borrowed, as horse, sheep, wheat, house. Again, the thing to which the value of debts is referred may be a thing quite different from the goods borrowed and, with the growth of the monetary economy and the use of the interest contract, money comes more and more to be used as the standard. At length the law declares that, in the absence of any other agreement, the amount of a debt is to be payable in terms of the unit of standard money, which thus is made legal tender as well as the customary standard of deferred payments. A _standard of deferred payments_ is the thing of value in which, by law or by contract, the amount of a debt is expressed and payable. § 7. # Increasing importance of the standard.# Until the use of money develops, the use of credit is difficult and limited; it becomes easy when the value of all things is expressed in terms of a common circulating medium. It therefore generally is true that the importance of money as the standard of deferred payments increases with the use of money as a medium of trade. The volume of outstanding debts expressed in terms of money now very greatly exceeds the total value of the circulating medium. Changes in the general level of prices have, therefore, great effects upon all existing debts. The value of all debts changes in the same proportion as does that of the standard unit of money; when this rises or falls in value, it means increase or reduction, in the same ratio, of the purchasing power of every creditor. It is as if he had in his possession metal dollars equal in amount to the face of the debt, and they had changed by so much in purchasing power. The debtor's interests in such changes are, of course, just the reverse of the creditor's interests. Outstanding contract debts may be roughly divided into two classes: short-time loans, running less than a year; and long-time loans, running for a year or more.[9] Fluctuations are rarely rapid and great enough to affect appreciably the debtors and creditors in the case of short-time loans. The results are appreciable in the case of loans running from one to five years, and may be very great in the case of loans made for still longer periods, such as the bonded indebtedness of nations, states, municipalities, and business corporations, and as mortgages given by farmers on their land or by owners of city real estate. A multitude of interests are thus affected by a change in the value of money. When money rises in purchasing power, receivers of fixed incomes are gainers. When it falls in purchasing power, they lose. Receivers of fixed incomes from loans include not merely private investors, but also many educational and charitable institutions which dispense their incomes for public purposes. Wages and salaries of many kinds go up and down less rapidly than do other prices, and thus to some extent wage-earners are in the position of passive capitalists[10] as regards changes in the monetary standard. In a capitalistic age, therefore, almost every individual is affected in some way by a change in the value of money. § 8. #Fluctuating standard and the interest-rate.# In connection with the standard of deferred payments there is presented a problem of the effect that fluctuations of the standard may have upon the interest-rate.[11] As the general price-level falls or rises, the monetary standard conversely appreciates or depreciates.[12] If these changes are slight in amount and imperceptible in their direction they may not affect considerably the motives of borrowers and lenders. Therefore, the rate of interest this year in long-time loans would be just that resulting in the expectation, on all hands, of a stationary level of general prices. Suppose that rate to be 5 per cent on the standard investment (such as real-estate loans and good bonds). Then the lender of $1000 will receive each year a $50 income and at the end of the investment period $1000 principal, each dollar of which will purchase the same composite quantum of goods that a dollar would have purchased at the time the loan was made. Likewise, the borrower would pay interest and principal in a standard that reflected an unchanging general level of prices. But, now, if the general level of prices unexpectedly falls 1 per cent within the year, the creditor of a loan maturing at the end of the year would receive (principal and interest) $1050 which will purchase 1 per cent more goods per dollar than the sum he loaned, or (approximately) $1060 worth of goods. Hence, he has received, in quantum of goods, a yield of 6 per cent on his investment. If this change continues for five years, the lender of a five-year loan would receive each year $50 having a purchasing power successively 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 per cent greater than the same sum had at the making of the loan; and at the end of the five years would collect the principal, having a purchasing power 5 per cent greater. The lender, on his part, would have to pay interest and repay the principal in a money that is to be obtained only in exchange for a larger sum of goods than that which could be bought with each dollar that he borrowed. This means that, with individual exceptions, creditors generally gain and debtors lose by falling prices. But this is fully true only in respect to loans already made. For just to the extent that such a movement of prices comes to be more or less regularly in the same direction, both borrowers and lenders are able to take it into account, and as experience shows, do take it into account.[13] When prices fall men become more eager to sell wealth, to lend the proceeds, and more reluctant to borrow for investment at the prevailing rate of interest and at the prevailing prices. There is an incentive to divest one's self of ownership (e.g., by selling stocks) and to become a lender (e.g., by buying bonds). This whole situation is reversed in a period of rising prices. The result is that the rate of interest in any long continued period of falling prices (such as from 1873 to 1896) has a trend downward and in a period of rising prices (such as from 1897 to 1915) has a trend upward. This movement of readjustment would not go on indefinitely, even if the same trend of prices continued; for in the strict theory of the case the adjustment would be complete when the interest rate had changed by just the amount of the annual change in the level of prices. For example, if 5 per cent is the static normal rate of interest, then when prices are falling 1 per cent each year, the adjusted rate of interest would be 4 per cent; and when prices were rising 1 per cent each year, the adjusted rate of interest would be 6 per cent. Such adjustments serve to some extent to neutralize the effects of changes in the standard of deferred payments so far as concerns new loans made in view of just such a change and in expectation of its continuance. But no one can foresee exactly, and most persons take little account of, such a change until it has continued for several years in the same direction. The adjustment is therefore never very prompt or very exact. In some years the general level of prices has risen more than 5 per cent, or more than enough to offset the entire interest received by most lenders. A man with dollars to invest would have been as well off if he had kept them buried during that period.[14] § 9. #Notable changes in prices#. In most cases the true effects of monetary changes escape recognition. In a few cases, however, the change has been so great as to cause an economic revolution. Such was the change in prices following the discovery of America, which occurred soon after the old feudal dues had come to be generally expressed in terms of money instead of labor services. In modern times, since the mass of debts has become greater than ever before, such changes bring even graver economic consequence. The increase in the output of gold in 1849-57,[15] caused what was the most rapid, if not the greatest money inflation that had occurred since the sixteenth century. The substitution of gold for silver by some countries at that time, by making a great additional market for gold, helped to check the fall in its value. Indeed, a considerable decline in the output of gold after 1870 combined with its widening use to cause in 1873 the beginning of a great fall of gold prices. The resulting increase in the burden of outstanding debts was felt by all debtors, but particularly by great numbers of the agricultural classes both in Europe and in America. Their tribulations were aggravated by the fact that at that time (especially from about 1873 to 1896) the prices of their products were falling much more rapidly than were general prices, as a result of the very rapid extension of the agricultural land supply.[16] There was complaint, agitation, and demand for relief on the part of many interests in France, Germany, England, and the United States. As a result, the money question became in this country a leading political issue and continued to be such between 1873 and 1900. § 10. #Nature and object of bimetallism.# First came "the greenback movement," which, lasted until after 1880.[17] This then gave way to an agitation for bimetallism. _Bimetallism_ is the plan of using two metals as standard moneys. Bimetallism is legally authorized when both metals are admitted to the mints for free coinage at an established ratio of weight. Bimetallism may be legally authorized, but not actually working, for, if the market-value long continues to vary appreciably from the legal ratio, only one of the metals may in fact be left in circulation. This situation is called _limping_ bimetallism (or the halting double standard), tho this is a contradiction of terms. National bimetallism is confined to a single country, as was the case in the United States before the Civil War, or in France before 1867. International bimetallism is that resulting from an agreement among several nations to use two metals on the same terms. The theory of bimetallism is that the government can act on the value of the two metals through the principle of substitution. The metal tending to become dearer will not be coined, the other will be coined in greater quantities. The degree of influence that can thus be exerted on the value of the two metals depends on the size of the reservoir of the metal that is rising in value. When it all leaves circulation, the law on the statute book permitting it to be coined becomes a mere phrase. In such a case there is bimetallism _de jure,_ but monometallism _de facto._ The greater the league of states the greater is the likelihood that the plan will continue to work. The only notable historical instance of international bimetallism is that of the Latin Union, which united France, Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland in an agreement remaining actually in force from 1866 to 1874. A strong movement developed between 1878 and 1892 in favor of forming a great international bimetallic union of states. One object of the movement was to put an end to the great fluctuations in the rates of exchange of money between the silver-using and gold-using countries, fluctuations which occasioned much uncertainty and loss to individuals engaged in foreign trade. The rise in the price of gold-exchange in the silver-using countries (notably India) meant also an increase in their burden of taxation. These countries collected their revenues in silver, but they had to pay their debts, principal and interest, in gold. Another object of this movement was to prevent the burden of individual debts from increasing by reason of the rise in the value of the single standard, gold. It was, indeed, hoped that by bringing silver much more into use, the value of gold would be reduced, thus bringing relief to the debtor classes. Still another object of the bimetallic movement was to aid the silver miners and silver-producing districts by creating a larger market for silver. Several international conferences were held which were taken part in by some of the leading financiers of the world representing their respective governments. The United States was foremost in advocating the policy, France at first favored it, as did in large measure the British Indian administration, tho England was in the main opposed. The movement came to nothing. § 11. #The movement for national bimetallism in America#. When all hope of international bimetallism failed, the efforts of many of its advocates were turned to the plan of legalizing national bimetallism in the United States at a ratio of 16 to 1. This was very different from the market ratio. Gold had become before 1860, in fact, the standard of our money system, and after 1873 it was the only metal admitted to free coinage. Silver, little by little, had been losing purchasing power in terms of gold, until from being worth, in 1873, one-sixteenth as much, ounce for ounce, it became, in 1896, worth but one-thirtieth as much as gold. The power of silver to purchase general commodities fell much less than the change in its ratio to gold would indicate, gold having risen in terms of most other goods as well as of silver. Nevertheless, the proposal to open the mints to the free coinage of silver at the ratio of 16 to 1 in the year 1896 threatened a sudden and marked cheapening of money.[18] Probably gold would have been entirely driven out as money and silver would have taken its place as the standard. In any event "free silver" would have accomplished the purpose of making the standard of deferred payments cheaper. It was at first a debtors' movement, but to succeed it had to enlist the support of other large classes of voters. And thus it developed into the more sweeping theory that wages, welfare, and prosperity were favored by a larger supply of money quite apart from the effect it would have upon debts. In its extreme form the free-silver plan was a fiat scheme, for some of its supporters believed that by the mere passage of the law the two metals could be made to bear to each other any ratio desired. But its most intelligent advocates recognized that the force of the law was limited by economic conditions. The victory of the gold standard in the campaign of 1896 was, it would seem, due more to the well-founded fear that a sudden change of the money standard would cause a panic than to a popular understanding of the question. The free-silver advocates got what they desired, a reversal of the movement of general prices, through an occurrence for which no political party could claim the credit. In 1883 the gold production of the world was less than $100,000,000. From that date, with the opening of newer gold-yielding territory in South Africa and in the Klondike, the annual output of gold had been increasing rapidly and almost steadily. The methods of extracting gold theretofore had still been in large part of a primitive sort. But intricate machinery was taking the place of crude tools, chemical processes had been introduced (notably, the cyanide process), and the principal product began to come from the regular and certain working of deep mines rather than from chance surface discoveries. In many parts of the world were enormous deposits of low-grade ores, before useless, that could be worked economically by the new methods. The general price level fluctuated, but on the whole tended downward between 1884 and 1893 (the year of panic), and reached a minimum in the year 1895 in Germany, 1896 in England, and 1897 in America. It is noteworthy that the very year 1896, which marked the height of the political agitation to abandon the gold standard for silver, saw the gold production for the first time in all history surpass the two hundred million dollar mark. The gold output had caught up with, and began to surpass, the normal monetary demands of the world, meaning by that phrase, the amount of gold needed to maintain a stationary level of prices. § 12. #Rising prices after 1896#. The whole character of the monetary problem then changed. A period of rising prices set in, which has continued to the present time. By 1913 prices had risen just about 50 per cent above the low level of 1896. The rise has been, and still is, at the average rate of nearly 3 per cent each year. This caused a reversal of the former positions of advantage and disadvantage on the part of debtor and creditor respectively. The purchasing power of a 3 per cent annual interest on notes and bonds has been offset by the decrease in the purchasing power of the principal of the debt. The burden of the average debt began relatively to decrease. A wide field for enterpriser's profits was opened up by the rapid displacement of prevailing prices in all quarters of the industrial world. The price of manufacturer's products rose in advance of the rise of costs of many raw materials and especially of the labor costs of manufacture. The average enterpriser's gain was the average wage-worker's loss. Wages (and salaries), as nearly always in the case of a change of price levels, moved more slowly than did the prices of most of the commodities which are bought with wages, thus causing great hardship to large classes living on comparatively slowly moving incomes.[19] Extremes meet, and these classes include both those living on passive investments, and those dependent on their daily labor for a livelihood. Thus we escape the evils of a rising standard of deferred payments, only to meet those of a falling standard. And as long as we have so fluctuating a standard these difficulties must arise again and again, continually repeated, causing unmerited gains and losses to individuals. Let us conclude with a brief consideration of the fundamental principles involved in this problem. § 13. #Defectiveness of the gold standard#. Money is, in general, for both borrowers and lenders the most convenient standard of deferred payments. But from the usage of speaking of all things in terms of gold, arises the popular notion that the value of gold is always the same, while the value of other things changes. In truth, a fixed objective standard of value is not possible of attainment. Altho the value of gold is stable as compared with most things, it rests on the estimates made by men and is constantly changing with conditions. The current new supplies of gold are comparatively regular. For centuries at a time there was little change in the methods of mining gold and there were no radical changes in its output. The nature of the use of gold, likewise, is such as to made changes in the amount of it needed, under ordinary conditions, more stable than is that of most other goods. Moreover, the stock of gold in monetary uses is but slowly worn out; it is, therefore, a large reservoir into which flows a comparatively small stream of annual production; the existing stock is twenty or thirty times the annual output. Yet the value of gold expressed in other things is never quite stable, and sometimes several influences combine to affect it greatly and suddenly. Recent inventions, chemical and mechanical, moreover, have considerably altered the conditions of production. While, therefore, it is the best standard yet devised and put into actual practice, it is very imperfect. A standard better than a single metal, more stable than a single commodity, is desirable if it can be found. § 14. #Various ideal standards suggested.# It may, perhaps, be agreed that the ideal standard of deferred payments is one that would insure justice between borrower and lender. Yet different views may be and have been taken as to what constitutes justice in this matter. The suggestion is attractive that repayment should involve the return of enjoyment equal to that which could be purchased with the sum at the time of the loan. Such a standard is impossible of perfect realization in any general way, for men's circumstances are constantly changing. To insure even to the average man the same amount of enjoyment is only roughly possible. The same goods do not afford the same enjoyment when conditions, either subjective or objective, have changed. Another suggestion is that the goods returned should represent the same sacrifice as those loaned. Here again the difficulty is in the lack of a standard applicable to all men. Whose sacrifice? That of the lender, who may be rich, or that of the borrower, who may be poor? Some have supposed that the condition of equal sacrifices was met by the labor standard, according to which the sum returned should purchase the same number of days of labor as when borrowed. But what kind of labor is to be taken, that of the lender or that of the borrower or that of some one else? Labor is of many different qualities, which can be exactly compared only through their objective value in terms of some one good.[20] It must be recognized that any possible concrete standard of deferred payments will sometimes work hardship in individual cases. The best average results for justice and social welfare will be secured by measuring debts in some standard that will change least often, and least rapidly, in relation to the great majority of people of all classes in the community. § 15. #The tabular standard.# Apart from the difficulties of its practical operation, a standard better than a single metal and more stable than a single commodity would be a _tabular standard_, consisting of a number of leading commodities in fixed proportions, such as is used in calculating index numbers expressing the general scale of prices. Such a standard averages the fluctuations of particular goods and would give a fair approximation in practice to the ideals of equal sacrifice and equal enjoyment (on the average tho not in individual cases). While some natural materials are growing more scarce and call for more sacrifice, other products are by industrial progress becoming more plentiful. This kind of standard has been viewed with favor by many monetary authorities, and despite the administrative difficulties ways may yet be found for putting it into practice. After determining the tabular standard, the actual regulation of the quantity of money to make prices conform to the standard might be accomplished in one of several ways. It might be done by letting the value of the gold dollar fluctuate as it does now, while requiring a greater or less number of dollars to be given in fulfilment of all outstanding contracts. For example, if prices by the tabular standard fell from 100 to 95 in the time between the origin of a debt of $100 and its payment, the debt would be discharged by paying $95; if prices rose to $110, the debt would be discharged only by the payment of $110. By the plan of a "compensated gold dollar" the legal weight of the gold coins would be increased or decreased from time to time to conform with the tabular standard. Still a third method would be to regulate the issue of standard paper money, contracting and expanding its amount by issue and redemption, by deposit in and withdrawal from depository banks, at regular intervals to bring prices into conformity with the tabular standard. These are as yet but distant possibilities, and for some time to come gold will continue to serve as the standard money in the same manner as in the past. [Footnote 1: The amount of silver is here expressed at its coining value; this is not the commercial value, but rather the number of silver dollars 371.25 fine grains weight that could be made out of the silver produced. Silver and gold of equal coining value are, therefore, as to weight always in the ratio of 16 to 1.] [Footnote 2: See above, ch. 5, sec. 4.] [Footnote 3: See Vol. I, p. 45 ff. See also above, ch. 4, sec. 8.] [Footnote 4: Numerous tabular index numbers have been worked out for different countries and periods. The main results of the more recent ones have been brought together with critical comments, by Professor Wesley C. Mitchell, in Bulletin 173 of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July, 1915, from which the figures here used are quoted.] [Footnote 5: The price movements in the United States between 1860 and 1879 must be left out of consideration here, for the excessive issues of greenbacks drove gold out of circulation and made greenbacks the standard money, except in California and elsewhere on the Pacific Coast where, by public opinion, gold was retained as the circulating medium.] [Footnote 6: This change was what later was referred to in political discussions as "the crime of '73." The dollar referred to was the _standard_ silver dollar; at the same time the coinage of a _trade_ dollar was authorized (intended to be used only in foreign trade), which, after 1876, was not legal tender in the United States.] [Footnote 7: See Vol. I, p. 262.] [Footnote 8: See Vol. I, p. 263, on credit transactions, and p. 302, on the interest contract.] [Footnote 9: See Vol. I, p. 304.] [Footnote 10: See Vol. I, p. 319.] [Footnote 11: This could not be treated in connection with the interest-rate in Vol. I, Part IV, for the reason that even its elementary treatment must presuppose the fuller study of the nature of money and the study of changes in the level of prices, that has just been given in this and the three preceding chapters. The theory of interest in Vol. I, therefore, is a static theory in respect to the standard of deferred payments, and requires adjustment to apply to a condition of a changing price-level.] [Footnote 12: See above, sec. 3.] [Footnote 13: Mention was made in Vol. I of the prospect of profit as affecting the motives of commercial borrowers; e.g., pp. 298, 335, 348, 495.] [Footnote 14: The modern explanation of this phenomenon was worked out in the period of falling prices before 1896 and hence was referred to as the theory of "appreciation and interest" (meaning the relation of the appreciating dollar to a falling rate of interest). More generally the theory is that of the relation of a changing standard of deferred payments and the rate of interest.] [Footnote 15: See ch. 4, sec. 12, and above secs. 1, 2, 4, 5.] [Footnote 16: See Vol. I, on agricultural leases, p. 159, wheat prices, p. 436, and changes in the land supply, p. 442.] [Footnote 17: See ch. 5, sec. 11.] [Footnote 18: The advocacy of this proposal was called "the free-silver movement" because it involved resuming the free coinage of silver at the legal ratio of 16 to 1.] [Footnote 19: This happened to coincide with a relative increase of the price of food-products and of other necessities of daily life at a greater rate than general prices. This aspect of the much discussed rising cost of living must be carefully distinguished from that of the change of the _general_ price level, and also from that of the relatively slower change of wages. See Vol. I, pp. 437, 445-446 on population and food supply.] [Footnote 20: See on the labor theory of value, Vol. I, pp. 210, 228-229, 502.] PART III BANKING AND INSURANCE CHAPTER 7 THE FUNCTIONS OF BANKS § 1. Nature and classes of banks. § 2. Functions of banks. § 3. The essential banking function. § 4. Time deposits. § 5. Demand deposits. § 6. Discount and deposit. § 7. Nature of banking reserves. § 8. Bills of exchange, domestic. § 9. Issue of notes. § 10. Divergent views of typical bank notes. § 11. Banking credit as a medium of trade. § 12. Productive services of banks. § 13. Income of banks. § 1. #Nature and classes of banks.# Banks perform a variety of useful functions in every modern community. All these functions touch in some way upon the use of money, and banking problems always are related to money problems. It is our purpose now to understand the general nature and work of banks in relation to the general business activity of the community. A bank, as one first comes to know it, is a building (or a room in some building) in which there is a fire- and burglar-proof safe. In this room are men receiving and paying out money and acting as bookkeepers. Gradually one comes to understand that the bank is perhaps not the building but the business organization that is there performing these transactions. In the United States there were in 1913 about 26,000 banks reported.[1] These may be classified first according to the source from which they derive their charters or authority to do a banking business as: national, state, and private. The last are unchartered and act under the general state laws governing private contracts; in general they are unsupervised.[2] Banks may be classified also according to the two main types of business they perform, as banks for savings and commercial banks. Most banks do mainly a general commercial business; some are distinctly banks for savings; but in truth this dividing line can be less and less sharply drawn between banks as wholes; rather the distinction must be made between the savings function and the commercial discount function, which are more and more being performed by one and the same bank. The trust company usually well exemplifies this union of functions. This will best be explained in connection with the subject to which we now turn, the analysis of the functions which banks perform. § 2. #Functions of banks.# Almost every bank performs various functions useful to its customers, but some of which are not essentially bound up with banking, and may be performed by institutions that are not truly banks. Among these are: (a) Maintaining a safe deposit vault, where space may be rented by an individual to keep his valuable papers, jewels, etc. The customer does not usually deliver to the bank possession of the valuables, but himself retains the key to the box which the bank has no right to open. In larger cities this work is often done by separate institutions. (b) Acting as money-changer to buy and sell moneys of different nations. This function is of less importance in America than elsewhere because of the great size of our country and of the small portion of our boundaries touching those of other nations using different monetary units. Moreover, the function is in large part performed for Americans by ticket agencies at the ports of embarkation and by the steamship companies en route. (c) Selling bonds and other investments to customers. In smaller communities the customers of a bank turn to it as the best source of information for safe investments of personal or trust funds. This opens to it a new possibility of service. Large investments, however, are usually made through the agency of more specialized investment brokers. (d) Acting as trustee and business manager for passive investors, and especially as executor and administrator of estates or as guardian of a minor heir. This function has been taken up rapidly since about 1890 by the trust company[3] organized under state laws. § 3. #The essential banking function.# The one essential function of a bank, however, is selling (lending) its credit to its customers in some form which will conveniently serve the same function as money. A bank is sometimes defined as a business whose income is derived from lending its promises. The bank's credit is sold in the form of its promises, the evidences of which are its receipts, depositors' account books, drafts and checks on other banks, and bank notes. The indispensable condition to the exercise of this function by a bank is public confidence in its ability to fulfil its promise to pay whenever it is due. This confidence is built upon the bank's paid-up capital; its surplus and undivided profits: the further liability of the stockholders to make good any losses up to an amount equal to the capital stock each holds ("stockholder's double liability"); the financial prestige of the bank's officers, directors, and stockholders; the bank's established reputation and "good will" in the community after a period of successful operation; the character of its loans and of the securities which it owns; and, finally, by the reliance placed in the control and inspection by official examiners. The bank may then sell its credit in any one or in all of the following five ways: (1) by receiving time deposits; (2) by receiving demand deposits; (3) by the method of discount and deposit; (4) by selling exchange of funds to distant points; (5) by issuing bank notes. § 4. #Time deposits.# Time deposits are funds to the credit of customers which, by agreement, are to be left for some specified minimum time or on condition that the bank may require notice in advance of the depositor's intention to withdraw them. The notice that may be required is usually thirty to ninety days; but only in times of general financial crises or of runs on particular banks is this requirement enforced. A sufficient deterrent to irregular withdrawal of funds is usually found in the loss of interest if deposits are withdrawn at other than stated times. The bank's right to require notice makes prudent the investment of a much larger proportion of its deposits and for a longer time; it reduces the proportion of deposits needed for reserves, and yet reduces the danger of a "run" upon the bank in time of financial distress. These are reasons why banks can and usually do pay interest on time deposits (at from 2 to 4 per cent), as until more recently they rarely did on demand deposits[4]. From the standpoint of the depositor a time deposit is, by its very nature, an investment and not a demand credit available for current monetary uses. Only that portion of a person's capital that for some more or less considerable period is not likely to be needed for other purposes ought to be put into time deposits. A bank, however, is generally a much safer place in which to keep a fund of purchasing power for the future than is the strongest private treasure box. Receiving time deposits is the one essential function of savings banks, but this function is increasingly performed by other banks[5]. Sometimes time deposits are cared for by a separate department and kept separate from the general business of a commercial bank. § 5. #Demand deposits#. Demand deposits are those payable on demand, the demand in practice being by means of personal checks requesting the bank to pay to (or on the order of) a specified person, or to pay to bearer. A customer's bank account consisting of demand deposits is called a checking account. Since the turn of the century it has become increasingly the practice to pay a low rate of interest (about 2 per cent) on current balances, oftener to large depositors. Banks attract demand deposits mainly by the convenience and economy which they offer to their customers in the guarding of funds from theft and fire and in saving the time, trouble, and expense of carrying money for making payments. A deposit in a bank is to the depositor for most purposes "just as good" as money in the pocket and for many purposes is even better. Thus the banks have become the custodians of a large proportion of the money (or funds) needed for current use by individuals and business corporations. § 6. #Discount and deposit#. The process of discount and deposit is the purchase of the promissory note of a customer,[6] the price being a credit in the form of a demand deposit on the books of the bank. This--the central and most characteristic banking operation--has something of mystery in it at first view. The simplest idea of making a deposit is that of bringing to a bank window bags and rolls of money or other funds (credit papers such as checks and drafts, calling for the payment of money). The bank in that case becomes the debtor and the depositor becomes the creditor of the bank. But in discount and deposit the depositor brings no money, and the credit paper that he gives is his own promise to pay whereby he becomes the bank's debtor. For example, when a bank discounts a thousand dollar note for three months and credits its customer with the proceeds, its deposits are at that moment increased (let us say) $985. Notice that hereby the bank does not add a cent to the cash in its vaults while it has added to its liabilities payable on demand. As an off-setting asset it holds the note of its customer receivable at some future time. §7. #Nature of banking reserves#. Banks would have nothing to gain by receiving deposits or by issuing notes if they were obliged to keep in the vaults actual money to the amount of their deposits and outstanding notes (unless they were paid by depositors for taking care of deposits). Banks have found it necessary in practice to keep on hand money amounting to only a fraction of all their outstanding obligations in order to be able to pay promptly all due demands, excepting in periods of general financial distress. The sum thus kept on hand is called the _reserve_ or the _reserves_ of the bank, and this is frequently expressed as a percentage of reserves against deposits or against note issues, respectively. Frequently, as in the United States, a minimum percentage of reserves is fixed by law.[7] A bank's reserves consist, first, of the lawful money which it actually holds in its vaults at any moment and secondly, of certain other credit items in other banks or with the government, of such a nature that a bank is permitted to count them as tho immediately available. The explanation of the adequacy of a mere fractional reserve is found in the nature of the individual monetary demand[8] and in the effective way in which a checking account serves as a substitute for actual money.[9] Every customer, if he would avoid overdrawing his account, must at most times keep a goodly balance to his credit that he does not immediately need. Many individuals and corporations must at times keep very large balances. The times of maximum monetary need of the customers of a bank never exactly coincide and many payments are made among the customers of a single bank, requiring only bookkeeping transfers. A fractional reserve is therefore ordinarily fully adequate, altho with any less than a 100 per cent reserve any bank would be insolvent if all of its demand obligations were presented at the same instant. Such a contingency is made impossible by business custom and public opinion especially among the larger customers of banks, but the panic of small depositors often brings about dangerous conditions. § 8. #Bills of exchange, domestic.# Foreign and domestic exchange is the sale of orders for the payment of specified sums of money at distant points. But for this, payments at distant points would ordinarily have to be made by sending the money in some way. It must often occur, for example, that hundreds of payments, aggregating millions of dollars, must be made by persons in and near Chicago to those in and near New York, while, at the same time, equally large sums are due from New York to Chicago. The wasteful process of shipping these sums back and forth is avoided by the cancellation of indebtedness between the two localities. It has been the practice for each small bank to keep a part of its legal reserves in correspondent banks in one or more of the larger cities on which it draws bills of exchange for its customers and to which in turn it remits for collection drafts and checks which it has received. From time to time, as balances of accounts increase on the one side or the other, shipments of actual money become necessary, but these are only a small fraction of the total amount of the bills of exchange. Similarly, the settlement of accounts between any two localities can be made by the shipment of comparatively small sums of money. Under the Federal Reserve Act the reserve banks are in various ways assuming the functions of the correspondent banks. The wider use and acceptance of individual checks at long distances from the banks upon which they are drawn limit by so much the proportion of special bills of exchange drawn by the banks themselves. Domestic exchange involves just the same principles as foreign exchange of funds, except that in the latter, usually, two different units of standard money are used. In connection with the discussion of foreign trade below, foreign exchanges will be explained and further light will be thrown upon the adjustment of the money supplies and levels of prices of the various sections of a single country as well as between different countries. § 9. #Issue of notes#. The issue of bank notes as a mode of lending a bank's credit calls for consideration here. Yet it must be observed at once that comparatively few banks in the world have now the legal right to issue their own notes. In some cases the right has been granted as a monopoly to certain banks in return for specified payments and services. But in general the function of bank note issue has come to be treated as so closely connected with that of the coinage and regulation of the standard money that it has been increasingly limited in each country to a central national bank, or group of banks, which is in many respects practically if not technically an organ of the government. This public nature of bank note issues has been strikingly evident in Russia, England, France, Germany, and other countries since the outbreak of the war in 1914. No two countries have quite the same system and kind of bank notes. It is well to consider first, therefore, the qualities of typical bank money. This consists of notes issued by banks on the credit of their general assets, without special regulation by law. With such a form of note we have had until 1914 no experience in the United States since 1866, at which time a federal tax of 10 per cent on state bank notes made their issue unprofitable. Since the passage of the Federal Reserve Act we have temporarily two kinds of national-bank notes, the old bond-secured notes, in use since 1863 (very different from the typical form),[10] and the new kind of Federal reserve notes very nearly typical in character but issued only by the Federal reserve banks, not by individual banks. A bank, by the issue of notes, puts into circulation as money its own promises to pay. The customer, in borrowing money or in withdrawing deposits or cashing checks and drafts from other banks, is paid with the bank's notes instead of with standard money. These notes may be returned to the issuing bank either to be redeemed in specie or to be paid in some other form of credit, such as deposits or exchange. The limit of the issue of such notes is the need of the community for that form of money, and if they are promptly redeemed in standard money on demand, they never can exceed that amount. A holder of a note (in the absence of special regulations) has the same claim on the bank that a depositor has. As it is to the interest of the bank to keep in circulation as many notes as possible, there is a temptation to abuse the power of note issue, to which many banks in America yielded in the period of so-called "wild-cat" banking before the Civil War. § 10. #Divergent views of typical bank notes#. Some persons seeing in bank notes but a form of ordinary commercial credit (like a promissory note or an individual's check) have contended that their issue should be entirely unlimited and unregulated except by the ordinary law of contract which makes the bank liable to redeem the notes on demand. Such bank notes would not be legal tender, and every one would be free to take or refuse them as he pleased. Each bank would thus put into circulation as many notes as it could, and as they would constantly be returned for redemption when not needed as money their volume would expand and contract with the needs of business. It may be conceded that there is much truth in this view, but not the whole truth. For, in reality, when bank notes are in common use, every one is compelled to take the money that is current. This offers a constant temptation to the reckless and unscrupulous promotion of banking enterprises, as has been repeatedly shown (notably in America in the days of "wild-cat" banking before 1860). The average citizen cannot know the credit of distant banks, and thus has not the same power of judging wisely in taking bank notes that he has even in making deposits in the bank of his own neighborhood. Between bank notes and ordinary promissory notes there are other differences. Bank notes pass without endorsement and thus depend on the credit of the bank alone, not, like checks, on the credit of the person, from whom received. Unlike ordinary promissory notes, they yield no interest to the holder. They go into circulation and remain in circulation for considerable time by virtue of their monetary character in the hands of the holders. Thus they approach political money in their nature, and the banks are near to exercising the sovereign right of the issue of money. At the other extreme of view have been those who consider bank notes to be essentially of the nature of political money. If they are so, it is argued, the power of issue should not be exercised by any but the sovereign state. In this view it is overlooked that bank notes, unlike inconvertible paper money, depend for their value on the credit of the bank, not on their legal-tender quality and on political power.[11] They must be redeemed on penalty of insolvency; government notes need not be, and yet will circulate at par if properly limited. Adequate provision for the prompt return and redemption of bank notes makes them "elastic" in their adaptation to monetary needs, which fluctuate with changes in commerce and industry from season to season and even from day to day. The predominant opinion to-day is that in their economic nature bank notes share to some extent the character both of private promissory notes and of political paper money. They stand midway between the two. Everywhere it has come to be held that the issue of paper money of any kind is in its nature a public monopoly, and yet everywhere the bank note policy has come to be that of permitting the issue only to certain institutions, under strict public legislation and regulation, and of requiring in return for this privilege some substantial services or payments to the government. § 11. #Banking credit as a medium of trade.# The credit which, in five ways, banks sell (see above, section 3) serves, in most cases, the purposes of money to their customers. This is least true of time deposits, for the motive of the depositor in such cases is usually to _invest_ his funds for a time rather than to keep them available as money. However, there are many cases in which persons save for some moderately distant use--such as the purchase of furniture, of a piano, of a house. The safety and convenience of time deposits, combined with the reward of a small rate of interest, cause great sums, in the aggregate, to be deposited as _temporary_ savings, which otherwise would be hoarded in the form of money and thus withdrawn from circulation. In all such cases the time deposit is serving both as an investment and as a monetary fund for future use. This is a great economy in the use of money, for experience shows that in the savings banks of America the average reserves of actual money kept against deposits are only about 1-1/2 per cent. In countries where banks are little known, the amount of actual money hoarded is therefore vastly greater than it is in the United States where there are $5,000,000,000 of individual deposits in _regular_ savings banks, besides large sums in time deposits in commercial banks. Demand deposits, while not money, clearly perform the function of a reserve of purchasing power for depositors and reduce by so much the amount of money each must keep at hand to meet his current needs of purchasing power. If the depositor's credit balance bears no interest, he has no motive to keep a balance greater than he would require of actual money, and he has the motive to spend it or invest it in income-bearing capital whenever his balance (plus his cash in hand) exceeds his monetary needs.[12] Thus demand deposits are often spoken of (somewhat inaccurately) as "deposit currency," being funds at the command of depositors which are as disposable and as active and current for the monetary function as so much actual money would be. It is estimated that the rate of turnover of deposits in the United States is about 50 times a year. We may view the demand deposits subject to check as either a substitute for money or as a means by which the rapidity of circulation and the monetary efficiency of actual money held in bank reserves is multiplied many fold.[13] The method of payment by bank drafts in domestic exchange reduces the need for, or increases the efficiency of, money in just the same way as does the use of checks. By the mutual credit of banks in different parts of the country, very large payments may be made in both directions with the movement of only the comparatively small amount of physical money needed to pay the balance after the cancellation of drafts, bills of exchange, and checks. The use of bank notes reduces the amount needed of other kinds of money more directly, tho not more effectively, than do deposit accounts. Bank notes _are_ money, and so long as their amount is limited by prompt redemption they circulate _instead of_ so much of other kinds of money. Redemption is possible by the use of a reserve of standard (or of legal tender) money very much smaller than the amount of notes outstanding. § 12. #Productive services of banks.# There have always been some erroneous ideas regarding the magic power of banks to multiply the power of money. But there should be no more of mystery about banking credit than about the nature of money itself. Banks are the labor-saving machinery of finance. They gather loanable funds, reduce hoarding, make money move more rapidly, and create a central market between borrowers and lenders for the sale of credit. While not creating more physical wealth directly, they add to the efficiency of wealth; they simplify and quicken the movement of nearly all commercial transactions. Banks perform incidentally a further service in developing better business methods in the community. They enforce promptness and exactitude in business dealings. In supplying credit to enterprises, banks are constantly passing judgment on the collateral security presented to them and on the soundness of the enterprises that are seeking support. This gives to bankers great economic power, capable at times of misuse in political and social affairs, especially where a group of selfish men come to exercise a practical monopoly of business credit in any community. § 13. #Income of banks.# The income of banks is drawn from different sources, according to the size of the community and the nature of the banks. While in the villages and smaller cities the commercial banks perform a number of functions, in the larger cities they usually specialize in a far greater degree. The trust companies, however, with their greater versatility, are increasing in number. The income of banks is derived from discounts, interest on their own capital, charges for exchange and collection, dividends, interest and rents on investments, and profit from their bank notes. The capital with which a bank starts in business[14] could be loaned with less trouble and more cheaply without starting a bank, but used as a banking capital it can be loaned in part while still serving to attract deposits, which are the main source of the income of banks to-day. Charging smaller customers for exchange is a source of income to some banks, but in many cases this service is freely performed for regular customers and becomes a considerable expense. Banks make few investments in real estate or other physical property; it is, in fact, their duty to keep out of ordinary enterprises, but they are forced sometimes to take for unpaid debts things that have been held as security. Profits on bank notes have at times been the main, almost the sole, motive for starting banks; but that is not the case to-day when the right of issue is so strictly limited. [Footnote 1: These are classified as follows: _Number_ --_Per Cent_-- _National charter_: 28.56 National banks 7,404 28.56 _State charter_: 67.52 State banks 14,011 54.05 Loan and trust companies 1,515 5.84 Savings banks 1,978 7.63 _Private_: 3.92 Private banks 1,016 3.92 ------ ------ ------ 25,924 100.00 100.00 ] [Footnote 2: Opinion favors prohibiting the use of the word bank to any except regularly incorporated organizations, or at least subjecting private banks to the same supervision as the chartered banks.] [Footnote 3: Not to be confused with a trust in the sense of a monopolistic enterprise, with which it has no connection except by mere verbal accident, through the word trust.] [Footnote 4: See next sec.] [Footnote 5: The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 has given encouragement to this practice by reducing to 5 per cent the reserve required to be kept against time deposits. See ch. 9, sec. 7.] [Footnote 6: Usually with deduction of interest in advance; a process called discount. See Vol. 1, pp. 275, 302.] [Footnote 7: The legal requirements as to minimum reserves vary greatly from no specific per cent to 40 or more in different countries, for different classes of banks, and for different purposes. Some examples of legal reserve requirements in the United States occur in the two following chapters.] [Footnote 8: See above, ch. 4, sec. 5.] [Footnote 9: See below, sec. 10.] [Footnote 10: Including, now, some Federal Reserve bank notes secured by United States bonds.] [Footnote 11: In some cases, as during the bank restriction in England, 1797-1821, bank notes become inconvertible--practically political money.] [Footnote 12: Payment of interest on credit balances reduces the motive to withdraw for investment elsewhere any such excess, and mingles in the depositor's thought monetary and investment motives.] [Footnote 13: In the United States in 1914 there were individual deposits reported in banks other than savings banks to the amount of about $13,400,000,000 In national banks .................................. $6,000,000,000 In state banks ..................................... 3,250,000,000 In loan and trust companies .......................... 4,000,000,000 In private banks ..................................... 150,000,000 Nearly all these were doubtless demand deposits (what proportion were time deposits we have no data for determining), and were available as immediate purchasing power for the depositors. The total money (other than bank notes) in the commercial banks of the country was hardly 11 per cent of this amount. In that year the total amount of money of all kinds in circulation (and in banks) in the United States (outside the Treasury), including gold and silver and certificates represented by bullion in the treasury, United States notes of all kinds, and national bank notes, was about one fourth of the amount of these individual deposits in commercial banks. This may suggest the enormous influence that banking has in determining the average efficiency of the circulating medium of the country.] [Footnote 14: See above, sec. 3.] CHAPTER 8 BANKING IN THE UNITED STATES BEFORE 1914 § 1. The First and Second Banks of the United States. § 2. Banking from 1836 to 1863. § 3. National Banking Associations, 1863-1913. § 4. Defects of our banking organization before 1913. § 5. Lack of system. § 6. Inelasticity of credit. § 7. Periodical local congestion of funds. § 8. Unequal territorial distribution of banking facilities. § 9. Lack of provision for foreign financial operations. § 10. The "Aldrich plan." § 1. #The First and Second banks of the United States.# A knowledge of the history of banking is helpful to an understanding of the present banking system in our country. The form of our present banking system has been affected by various economic and political events which will be sketched here in broad outline to give a background for our present study. Alexander Hamilton, the great first Secretary of the Treasury in Washington's cabinet, advocated the charter of a central national bank as one portion of his larger plan of national financiering. His purpose was realized in the chartering, in 1791, of the First Bank of the United States, for a period of twenty years. The capital for this institution was in small part subscribed by the government, but mostly by private capitalists. The management of the bank was left almost entirely in private hands. The central bank established branches in many parts of the country, issued bank notes which circulated everywhere without depreciation, acted as the governmental depository of funds and as governmental agency in various ways. It seems to have been successful and useful as a banking institution until the expiration of its charter in 1811, but it was touched by the contemporary controversies over state rights and was from the first opposed by those who feared the growth of a strong central government. This opposition prevented the extension of its charter. In 1816, however, after only a moderate discussion, the Second Bank of the United States was chartered for a period of twenty years. This also, in its purely banking aspects, seems to have been distinctly successful, conducting numerous branches in various parts of the country, maintaining at all times the parity of its notes, facilitating domestic exchange throughout the country, and enjoying unquestioned credit and solvency. However, this bank became, even in a greater degree than did the First Bank, the creature of political rivalries. In the period of rising democratic sentiment typified and led by Andrew Jackson, the bank came to be looked upon as the embodiment, or the stronghold, of plutocratic interests, and Congress permitted its charter to expire by limitation in 1836, near the close of Jackson's administration. § 2. #Banking from 1836 to 1863#. The Federal Government, which up to that time had deposited its funds in the central bank and its branches and in local state banks, established the "independent treasury," in 1840 (abolished in 1841 and re-established in 1846). By this plan the government kept its money of all kinds in various depositories (or sub-treasuries) in charge of public officials. While from 1792 to 1836 almost continuously a central banking system was in operation, other banks, organized under state charters, were steadily increasing in number. They received deposits, issued bank notes under state laws, and cared for local commercial needs. The abolition of the central national bank in 1836 left to the various state banks for twenty seven years all the banking functions of the country. The banks of some states (notably those of New England and New York), under careful regulation and held to strict standards by public sentiment, for the most part maintained a high credit; but many banks, under lax laws and regulations, were guilty of great abuses of credit and of downright dishonest practices. The evils were more especially evident in connection with excessive issues of bank notes. § 3. #National Banking Associations, 1863-1913#. The next step in federal legislation was taken in 1863 in the midst of the Civil War by chartering local "national banking associations." The purpose was in part to provide banks under national charters for banking purposes (both of deposit and of issue), and in part it was to make a wider market for United States bonds at a time when government credit was at low ebb. The plan adopted followed the experience of New York state (1829 on) with a system of bond-secured bank notes. Congress provided that every bank taking out a national charter must purchase bonds of the United States and deposit them with the treasurer of the United States, in return for which it would receive bank notes to the amount of 90 per cent of the denomination or of the market value of the bonds.[1] Bank notes issued on this plan, being secured by the bonds, rest ultimately on the credit of the government, not on the credit of the bank. They are not promptly sent back for redemption to the banks issuing them, as should be done if they were typical bank notes. They may circulate thousands of miles away from the bank that issued them, and for years after the bank has gone out of business. They are not an "elastic currency," increasing or diminishing with the needs of business. The changes in their amount depend upon the chance of the banks to make more or less in this way than by any other use of their capital, and this in turn depends largely on the price of bonds and on the rate of interest they bear. From 1864 to 1870, fortunes were made from this source, but thereafter banks could make little more from note issues than they could by investing the same amount in other ways. Many banks for a long period did not avail themselves in the least of their privilege of issue. The notes were subject to a tax.[2] A national bank (as the law now stands) may be organized, with $25,000 capital in towns not exceeding three thousand population, with $50,000 in towns not exceeding six thousand, with $100,000 in cities not exceeding fifty thousand, and with $200,000 in large cities. Three cities, New York, Chicago, and St. Louis, have long been designated as central reserve cities, and some 47 other cities as reserve cities, in which the reserves of banks were required to bear a considerably larger proportion to their deposits than in other cities.[3] Other banks might count as part of their legal reserves their deposits in reserve city banks, up to a certain proportion. The national banks in the larger cities thus became the great capital reservoirs of cash for the whole country. National banks have been subject to stricter inspection than have been the banks in most of the states, a fact which has strengthened public confidence in their stability. Except in this and the other respects above mentioned, a national charter offered few, if any, attractions to small banks, a majority of which have found it more advantageous to operate under state charters because of less stringent regulations as to amount of capital, reserves, and supervision. § 4. #Defects of our banking organization before 1913#. Taken altogether, the banks in the United States since 1868 have represented great banking power and very efficient service for the community in times of normal business. But in several respects it long ago became evident that our banks were operating less satisfactorily than those of several other countries. American banking organization had failed to keep pace with the increasing magnitude and difficulty of its task. Especially at the recurring periods of financial stress, such as occurred in 1893, 1903, and 1907, our banking machinery showed itself to be wofully unequal to the strain put upon it. Financial panics were more acute here than in any other land, and the evil clearly was traceable in large part to defects in the banking situation. In academic teaching and in public conferences of bankers, business men, publicists, and students, the subject was continually discussed after 1890. At length Congress in 1908 created a "National Monetary Commission" to inquire into and report what changes were necessary and desirable in the monetary system of the United States or in the laws relative to banking and currency. After the most extended inquiry and discussion that the subject had ever received, the commission submitted its report in January, 1912. The defects to be remedied, as enumerated in the report,[4] may be reduced to the following five headings: (a) Lack of system, (b) Inelasticity of credit, (c) Periodic local congestion of funds. (d) Unequal territorial distribution of banking facilities. (e) Lack of provision for foreign banking. § 5. #Lack of system#. Only in a loose sense could the banks of the United States be said (before 1914) to constitute a system at all. Both national and state laws dealt with individual banks only. It was not legal for a bank to establish branches in another city as is done in most countries. The several national banks in one city were legally quite separate. It was only by voluntary agreement that in some of the larger cities they came together into clearing-house associations. They made possible some measure of coöperation which, small as it was, proved at times of stress to be of much service within a limited sphere for the local communities. But even with the aid of these organizations the banks were unable in times of emergency to avoid the suspension of cash payments. There was no provision whatever for the concentration of bank revenues so that each bank would be supported by the strength of the other banks, if a movement began to withdraw deposits in unusual amounts. Each bank then was compelled for self-protection to call for any sums it had deposited with other banks,[5] and to keep for its own use all the reserves it might have in excess of its own immediate needs. This threw a great strain upon the banks in the reserve cities, which in normal times had become the depositories of a good part of the reserves of the banks in other places. Thus developed a spirit of panic, like the fright of theater-goers crowding toward the door at the cry of fire. The maintenance of the government's independent treasury contributed to the difficulties by causing the irregular withdrawal of money from circulation and thus depleting bank reserves in periods of excessive government revenues and by returning these funds into circulation only in periods of deficient revenues. Efforts to modify this system by a partial distribution of the public moneys among national banks had resulted, it was charged, in discrimination and favoritism in the treatment of different banks and of different sections of the country. § 6. #Inelasticity of credit#. Our banks, considered both separately and collectively, were unable to increase their loaning powers quickly and easily to respond to business needs. The need of greater elasticity of credit was felt in the more or less regular seasonal variations within the year, and in the more irregular variations in cycles of years from periods of prosperity to those of panic and depression in business. The inelasticity was necessitated by illogical federal and state laws restricting absolutely the further extension of credit when the reserves fell below the percentage of deposits (15 or 25 per cent) fixed by law. Reserves thus could not legally be used to meet demands for cash payments at the very time when most needed. This feature has been likened to the rule of the liveryman who always refused to allow the last horse to leave his stable so that he would never be without a horse when a customer called for one. The refusal of credit by the banks at such times when they still had large amounts of cash in their vaults increased the need and eagerness of the public to draw from the bank all the cash they could, and often precipitated the insolvency of the banks. Clearly some means were needed to enable the loaning power of the individual banks to be increased at such times, so that no customer with good commercial paper need fear to be refused a loan, even tho the rate of interest might have to be somewhat higher for a few days or weeks than the normal rate. Our bond-secured bank notes lacked almost entirely the quality of elasticity needed to meet these changing business needs.[6] Their value being dependent primarily upon the amount and price of United States bonds, they might be most numerous just when least needed as a part of our circulating medium. § 7. #Periodical local congestion of funds#. In times of general confidence each bank finds it profitable, and is tempted, to extend its credit to the extreme limit permitted by the law governing the proportion of reserves to deposits. Of the 15 per cent reserves required in most banks, three-fifths (9 per cent) might be kept in banks in reserve cities, and of the 25 per cent in reserve city banks, 12-1/2 per cent might be kept in central reserve cities, where it counted as part of the depositing banks' legal reserves, was a fund upon which domestic exchanges could be drawn, and usually earned a small rate of interest (usually 2 per cent). Very large reserves were kept in New York city where they could be loaned "on call," and the largest use for call loans was in stock-exchange speculation. Thus every period of prosperity encouraged an unhealthy distribution of reserves, gave an unhealthy stimulus to rising prices, and "promoted dangerous speculation." § 8. #Unequal territorial distribution of banking facilities.# Another aspect of this concentration of surplus money and available funds in the larger cities was the comparatively ample provision of banking facilities in the cities and in the manufacturing sections, and imperfect provision in the agricultural districts. The whole financial system seemed designed to induce the poorer country districts to lend funds at low rates of interest to be used speculatively in cities, instead of enabling the richer districts, the cities, to lend to the rural districts for productive enterprise. The rates of bank discount in different sections of our country have long been most unequal--lowest in the largest cities, and highest in the rural South and West--whereas in all parts of Canada, with a different system of banking, the rates have long been much more approximately uniform. Indeed, our national banking development has been predominantly urban and commercial to the neglect of rural and agricultural interests. National banks were (until 1913) forbidden to make loans on real estate, and this greatly "restricted their power to serve farmers and other borrowers in rural communities." There was "no effective agency to meet the ordinary or unusual demands for credit or currency necessary for moving crops or for other legitimate purposes." The lack of uniform standards of regulation, examination, and publication of reports in the different sections prevented the free extension of credit where most needed. Finally, the methods and agencies for making domestic exchange of funds were, compared with other countries, imperfect and uneconomical even in normal times and could not "prevent disastrous disruption of all such exchanges in times of serious trouble." § 9. #Lack of provision for foreign financial operations.# Not without its influence on public opinion was the consideration that we had "no American banking institutions in foreign countries." Many bankers and business men felt, as did the commission, that the time had come when the organization of such banks was "necessary for the development of our foreign trade." Foreign banks in South America and the Orient, handling American trade, were believed to favor their own countrymen rather than the interests of American merchants. In contrast with the European nations with their centralized control of banking, we had "no instrumentality that" could "deal effectively with the broad questions which, from an international standpoint, affect the credit and status of the United States as one of the great financial powers of the world. In times of threatened trouble or of actual panic these questions, which involve the course of foreign exchange and the international movements of gold, are even more important to us from a national than from an international standpoint." § 10. #The "Aldrich plan."# The National Monetary Commission submitted with its report a plan which was known by the name of the commission's chairman, Senator Aldrich. This plan was embodied in a bill for a National Reserve Association, a bank for banks which bore some likeness to the great central banks of Europe. In the many details of the plan an effort has been made to remedy every one of the difficulties above described and to supply all the needs indicated. The plan was favored pretty generally by bankers, but called forth many adverse opinions. In the year of a presidential election, however, Congress took no action in the matter. All parties were pledged to some kind of banking reform, but particular proposals were not discussed in the campaign. [Footnote 1: Whichever was the smaller. In 1900 this was changed so that notes could be issued to the full amount of the denomination of the bonds.] [Footnote 2: In recent years this has been one half of 1 per cent when 2 per cent bonds, and 1 per cent when bonds bearing a higher interest, were deposited.] [Footnote 3: In reserve cities 25 per cent and in other cities 15 per cent. The details of the regulations in the old law (given in part below, sec. 7) were ll altered by the legislation of 1913.] [Footnote 4: The expressions within quotation marks in the following sections are taken from this report.] [Footnote 5: See further on this in sec. 7 on periodical congestion of funds.] [Footnote 6: See above, sec. 3.] Chapter 9 THE FEDERAL RESERVE ACT § 1. General banking organization. § 2. The Federal Reserve Board. § 3. Federal reserve banks. § 4. Federal reserve notes. § 5. Reserves against Federal reserve notes. § 6. Reserves against Federal reserve bank deposits. § 7. Reserves in member banks. § 8. Rediscount by Federal reserve banks. § 9. Changes in national banks. § 10. Operation of the Act. § 1. #General banking organization#. President Wilson and the newly elected Congress with its Democratic majority made banking reform one of the main objects on the program for the special session beginning March 5, 1913. The result was the Glass-Owen bill, which became law as the Federal Reserve Act December 23 of that year. The bill was actively discussed within and without the halls of Congress, and many of its features were attacked by bankers individually and acting through the bankers' associations, at various stages of its progress. As a result it underwent numerous amendments in details, and tho it remained in most essentials as it was first proposed, it was at last accepted even by its critics as on the whole a beneficent act of legislation. Indeed, its strongest critics had been the friends of the Aldrich plan, and the Federal Reserve Act embodies, in a greater degree than its authors were ready to admit, the main features of the Aldrich plan. In one important respect, however, it is different; it provides for more decentralization of control and of reserves than did the Aldrich plan. It created not one central banking reserve, but, in the end, twelve regional, or district, banks each to keep the reserves of its district. The Jacksonian tradition of opposition to a central bank[1] in part helps to explain this; in part the contemporary congressional investigation and discussion of the so-called "money-trust" and the consequent desire to decrease the importance of "Wall Street" and of New York city banking power. On the accompanying map are given the outlines of the districts as constituted and altered down to 1916.[2] [Illustration: FEDERAL RESERVE BANK DISTRICTS] § 2. #The Federal Reserve Board#. At the head of the banking system stands the Federal Reserve Board of seven members, five of them appointed by the President and Senate of the United States for this purpose, and two serving _ex-officio_--the Secretary of the Treasury and the Comptroller of the Currency. One of the five shall be designated by the President as Governor and one as Vice-Governor of the Board, but the Secretary of the Treasury is _ex-officio_ chairman. The term of the appointive members is ten years and the salary is $12,000 a year. The powers of the board are numerous and important. The board is made the head of a real _system_ of banking, the twelve parts of which can, in times of emergency, and at the board's discretion, be compelled to combine their reserves by means of lending to each other (rediscounting), to the very limit of their resources, at rates fixed by the board. By this means the reserves of the several district banks may be "piped together" and thus be practically made into one central bank under governmental control, altho centralization was in outward form avoided by the bill. Alongside of the Reserve Board, is placed a Federal Advisory Council, consisting of one member from the board of directors of each of the twelve district banks. This council has only the power to confer with, make representations and recommendations to, and call for information from, the Federal Reserve Board. § 3. #Federal reserve banks#. The twelve Federal reserve banks which opened for business November 16, 1914, are of a type of institution new in our financial history. They are "banks for banks" belonging to the system in their respective districts. Every national bank must, and any state bank or trust company may,[3] subscribe for stock to the amount of 6 per cent of its capital and surplus, and thus become a "member bank." The capital of each Federal reserve bank was to be at least $4,000,000; in fact only two of those organized (Atlanta and Minneapolis) had at their opening less than $5,000,000 capital; the largest (New York) had $21,000,000, and the average was $9,000,000. The member banks are to receive dividends of 6 per cent, cumulative, on this stock, and net earnings above that amount are to be paid to the Government as a franchise tax.[4] Each reserve bank has nine directors, consisting of three classes of three men each. Classes A and B are elected by the member banks by a system of group and preferential voting designed to prevent the large banks from outvoting the smaller ones. Directors of class A are chosen by the banks to represent them, and are expected to be bankers; those of class B, tho chosen by the banks and tho they may be stockholders, shall not be officers of any bank, and shall at the time of their election be actively engaged within the district in commerce, agriculture, or some other industrial pursuit. Directors in class C are appointed by the Federal Reserve Board, one of them being designated as chairman of the board of directors and as Federal reserve agent. They represent the public particularly, and may not be stockholders of any bank. Any Federal reserve bank may: a. Receive deposits from member banks and from the United States. b. Discount upon the indorsement of any of its member banks negotiable papers, with maturity not more than ninety days, that have arisen out of actual business transactions, but not drawn for the purpose of trading in stock and other investment securities. c. Purchase in the open market anywhere various kinds of negotiable paper. d. Deal anywhere in gold coin and bullion. e. Buy and sell anywhere bills, notes, revenue bonds, and warrants of the states and subdivisions in the continental United States. f. Fix the rate of discount it shall charge on each class of paper (subject to review by the Federal Reserve Board). g. Establish accounts with other Federal reserve banks and with banks in foreign countries or establish foreign branches. h. Apply to the Federal Reserve Board for Federal reserve notes to be issued in the manner below indicated. § 4. #Federal reserve notes#. In 1914 there were outstanding about $750,000,000 of what we may now call the old-style bank notes (bond-secured). These were by the new act not forcibly retired at once; but, as the law is shaped, they probably will be retired at the rate of about $25,000,000 a year, and will all disappear from circulation in thirty years.[5] Whenever the banks having old-style bank notes outstanding desire to retire any of their circulating notes, the Federal reserve banks are required[6] to purchase the bonds in due quota (not to exceed $25,000,000 in any one year). On the deposit of these bonds with the Treasurer of the United States, the Federal reserve banks may receive other circulating notes (essentially of the old style) called Federal reserve bank notes, or may receive 3 per cent bonds not bearing the circulating privilege. The new kind of notes provided by the act are called Federal reserve notes. They are not secured by the deposit of government bonds, but they are secured beyond all question in other ways. First, they are obligations of the United States receivable for all taxes, customs, and other public dues, and are redeemable in gold on demand at the Treasury of the United States. Secondly they are receivable by all member banks in the twelve districts and by all Federal reserve banks, and redeemable by the latter in gold or lawful money (which includes greenbacks and gold and silver certificates). Thirdly, their credit and prompt redemption is insured by certain elastic rules as to reserves in gold which must be kept for the redemption of outstanding notes. Fourthly, they are secured by collateral, consisting of notes and bills accepted for rediscount from member banks, which must be deposited by a Federal reserve bank with the Federal reserve agent of its district, dollar for dollar for every note it receives. Fifthly, the notes become "a first and paramount lien on all the assets of the bank." This is what gives the notes their character of asset currency. It is evident that the notes unite in a manner without example the characteristic of asset bank notes with the characteristics of political paper money.[7] No notes, it will be observed, are issued by or on request of the member banks, but only on request of a Federal reserve bank. After the notes have been issued, the bank may reduce its liability any day by depositing lawful money with the Federal reserve agent who is right there in the bank. The Federal reserve banks and the United States Treasury must promptly return to the banks through which they were issued all notes as fast as they are received, and "no Federal reserve bank shall pay out notes issued through another on penalty of a tax of ten per centum." The regulations do not apply to the member banks, but their effect must be to keep notes from circulating long in any district except that for which they were issued. § 5. #Reserves against Federal reserve notes.# The rule applying in normal times to reserves against note issues is that each bank must provide a reserve in gold equal to 40 per cent "against the Federal reserve notes in actual circulation, and not offset by gold or lawful money deposited with the Federal reserve agent." At least 5 per cent is to be on deposit in the Treasury of the United States. The proportion of reserves to the liability for note issues by any bank, however, may be allowed to fall below 40 per cent, on condition that the Federal Reserve Board shall establish a graduated tax of not more than 1 per cent per annum (it evidently might be made less if the board chose) upon such deficiency, until the reserves fall to 32-1/2 per cent and thereafter a graduated tax of not less than 1-1/2 per cent on each additional 2-1/2 per cent deficiency or fraction thereof.[8] This tax must be paid by the reserve bank, but it must add an amount equal to the tax to the rates of interest and discount charged to member banks. The effect of these rules is to give a power of note issue in time of emergency without compelling the reserve banks to lock up their reserves held against notes. Suppose for example that the circulating notes were in normal times $1,000,000,000 and the reserves, therefore, were $400,000,000 and the rate of discount 5 per cent. Then the circulation might be doubled with the same reserves, the proportion thus falling to 20 per cent of outstanding notes, and the rate of discount to customers rising to 13.5 per cent (5 plus 8.5). Or, to take a most extreme supposition, suppose that the withdrawal of gold had been so great as to reduce the reserves against notes to $50,000,000; yet outstanding notes might be doubled (becoming $2,000,000,000,) the proportion falling to 2.5 per cent, the rate of discount rising to 24 (5 plus 19). § 6. #Reserves against Federal reserve bank deposits.# Every Federal reserve bank shall, under normal conditions, maintain reserves in lawful money of not less than 35 per cent against its deposits. But the Federal Reserve Board may suspend any reserve requirement in the Act for a period not exceeding 30 days and from time to time renew the suspension for periods not exceeding 15 days; but in that case it must establish a graduated tax upon the amounts by which the reserve requirements may be permitted to fall below the levels specified as to note issues. Altho the amount of the tax on the deficiency of reserves against deposits is not indicated in the act (as it is in respect to excess note issues) it is plainly the thought that the Board, to which discretion is left, will follow somewhat the same rule in both cases. The great discretionary power as to reserve requirements thus lodged in the hands of the Board makes possible at times of emergency the use of the reserves both of the reserve banks and of the member banks, down to the last dollar, if need be, without violation of law. This gives practically unlimited opportunity to expand credit both by the issue of bank notes and by discount and deposit in periods of financial crises. § 7. #Reserves in member banks.# A fundamental change is made in the rules as to the reserves against deposits that must be maintained by the member banks. A new distinction is made between time and demand deposits. Time deposits are defined as those payable after thirty days or subject to not less than thirty days' notice; and demand deposits as those payable within thirty days. In every case the reserve requirement against time deposits is only 5 per cent. This gives encouragement to banks to maintain savings departments. The requirements as to reserves against demand deposits are not uniform, being the lowest for banks in smaller cities (the great majority), larger for banks in the reserve cities, and largest for banks in the three central reserve cities (New York, Chicago, St. Louis). The act substitutes the new Federal reserve banks for the banks in reserve and central reserve cities as the depositories of funds that may[9] be counted as a part of the reserves of member banks. The new rule requires that one-third must be in the bank's own possession, a fraction slightly over a third must be in the Federal reserve bank, and the remainder may be kept in either place. This may be tabulated as follows: _Not in In reserve In central reserve cities cities reserve cities_ Total reserves, per cent 12 15 18 Must be in its own vaults 4/12 5/15 6/18 May be either place 3/12 4/15 5/18 Must be in a Federal reserve bank 5/12 6/15 7/18 These requirements as to total reserves are, as compared with requirements of national banks under the old law, a reduction respectively of 20 per cent, 40 per cent, and 28 per cent. The total decrease in the amount of reserves required for all three classes of national banks was about $400,000,000 on the amount of deposits held in September, 1914. § 8. #Rediscounts by Federal reserve banks.# More important than any other single feature of the act is, however, that by which each Federal reserve bank is to rediscount notes, drafts, and bills of exchange arising out of actual commercial transactions, when indorsed and presented by any of its member banks. This, quite apart from the note issues, gives a power to the banks collectively, under the general supervision and control of the board, to expand credits indefinitely at any time for real business purposes. Any business man able to offer any commercial paper of sound quality should now be able to borrow on it at some rate of discount, even in the most stringent times. And, in turn, every member bank will now be able at such times to rediscount such paper and thus secure credit toward its reserve requirement on the books of its Federal reserve bank. Suppose, for example, that a member bank (in a central reserve city) saw its reserve in the Federal bank fall below 7 per cent of its deposits. It could by rediscounting $7000 worth of notes increase by $38,888 the amount to which it might legally extend credit to its customers (i.e., $7000 is 18 per cent of that sum). The deposits of the Federal reserve bank would then be increased $7000, against which it must have a reserve of 35 per cent, or $2450. If the reserves of any Federal reserve bank fall too low, it can in turn rediscount its paper with the other Federal reserve banks.[10] If the time comes when no one of the twelve banks can longer maintain a 35 per cent reserve, the board may reduce or suspend the requirement, levying a tax graduated according to the deficiency. The provision here for elasticity of credit combined with union and solidarity of all the central banking reserves of the country to meet unusual demands in emergencies, exceeds any needs which can be expected to arise. § 9. #Changes in national banks.# There is here created a national system of reserves, but it will be observed that membership in the new system of the Federal reserve banks is not limited to national banks, but is open on equal terms to banks organized under state laws. While in most respects the general banking law remains as it was, certain changes are of importance. The percentage of reserves henceforth required of all member banks (as above indicated) is a substantial reduction of the former requirement for national banks. In some other respects the powers of national banks are enlarged. One with a capital and surplus of $1,000,000 may with the approval of the Board establish foreign branches, and one not situated in a central reserve city may loan on farm lands for a term not longer than five years, but not to exceed one third of its time deposits or 25 per cent of its capital and surplus. National banks may now be granted permission by the board to act as trustee, executor, administrator, or registrar of stocks and bonds, thus having the rights that have proved in many cases to be of advantage to trust companies organized under state laws. § 10. #Operation of the Act#. It was fortunate that this act was nearly ready to be put into operation when, August 1, 1914, the great European war broke out. The able appointees to the Federal Reserve Board commanded the confidence of the bankers and of the public. The knowledge that the reserve banks would early begin operations was reassuring during the grave financial stress of the next three months, and the opening of the district banks in November, 1914, at once made possible the release for commercial uses of cash reserves and credits to meet the needs of reviving business.[11] Only an extended experience can show how this enormous new banking organization will operate as a whole and in its details. Because of the very wide discretionary powers given to the board in the administration of the act much depends on the character and ability of the members of the board as well as on a sound public opinion that will keep this great power from use in partisan and selfish ways. No doubt amendments of the act will appear necessary, but there can be no question that the Federal Reserve Act has inaugurated a new epoch in the banking and financial history of our country.[12] [Footnote 1: See ch. 8, sec. 1.] [Footnote 2: The law provided that an organization committee should designate not less than eight nor more than twelve cities as Federal reserve cities and should divide the continental United States, excluding Alaska, into districts each containing one such city. Twelve districts were designated. Wherever, therefore, the act speaks of "not less than eight nor more than twelve," or of "as many as there are Federal reserve districts," we may, for convenience, speak of twelve.] [Footnote 3: On agreeing to comply with reserve and capital requirements of national banks and to submit to Federal examination.] [Footnote 4: Except that until the surplus of any reserve bank amounts to 40 per cent of its paid-in capital stock, one half of its net earnings shall be paid into a surplus fund.] [Footnote 5: These notes are all secured by the deposit of bonds of the United States, a large share of them bearing interest at the very low rate of 2 per cent. Two per cent is less than the market rate for government loans, for 3 per cent bonds without this privilege sell above par. Therefore these 2 per cent bonds were held almost exclusively by banks, and would have lost a good share of their value had the note-deposit privilege been withdrawn.] [Footnote 6: Through the Federal Reserve Board or they may do it voluntarily, sec. 4.] [Footnote 7: The Act does not explicitly say by whom the notes are issued: it says that they are "to be issued at the discretion of the Federal Reserve Board"; that "the said notes shall be obligations of the United States." Further on the notes are spoken of as "issued to" a Federal reserve bank, and again as "issued through" a Federal reserve bank, but not _by_ it. But the phrase occurs (sec. 16) "its [i.e., the Federal reserve bank's] Federal reserve notes." The notes thus are technically issued by the United States, but not as ordinary political (fiat) money, for they are not given a forced circulation by the Government in paying its indebtedness. But the banks "shall pay such rate of interest on" the amounts of notes outstanding as may be established by the Federal Reserve Board (i.e., to the Government of the United States). Practically the notes (as respects choice of time of issue, amounts, profits from them, commercial assets to secure them and to redeem them) are asset currency issued by the several Federal reserve banks.] [Footnote 8: This may be shown in the following table: When reserves against notes are the tax rate upon the total are-- deficiency shall be-- Below 40.0 to 32.5 per cent 1.0 per cent " 35.5 to 30.0 " " 2.5 " " " 30.0 to 27.5 " " 4.0 " " " 27.5 to 25.0 " " 5.5 " " " 25.0 to 22.5 " " 7.0 " " " 22.5 to 20.0 " " 8.5 " " " 20.0 to 17.5 " " 10.0 " " " 17.5 to 15.0 " " 11.5 " " " 15.0 to 12.5 " " 13.0 " " " 12.5 to 10.0 " " 14.5 " " " 10.0 to 7.5 " " 16.0 " " " 7.5 to 5.0 " " 17.5 " " " 5.0 to 2.5 " " 19.0 " " " 2.5 to 0.0 " " 20.5 " " ] [Footnote 9: The complete application of the new rule is deferred for a period of three years from the passage of the act.] [Footnote 10: See on "piping" provision, sec. 2, above.] [Footnote 11: See sec. 7 above.] [Footnote 12: Several other features of the law well merit description. Among these features are measures for developing bankers' acceptances, open market operations, the gold clearing system of the Federal Reserve Board, and the clearing of checks and parring of exchange.] CHAPTER 10 CRISES AND INDUSTRIAL DEPRESSIONS § 1. Mischance, special and general, in business. § 2. Definitions. § 3. A feature of a money economy. § 4. European crises. § 5. American crises. § 6. A business cycle. § 7. General features of a crisis. § 8. "Glut" theories of crises. § 9. Monetary theories of crises. § 10. Capitalization theory of crises. § 11. The use of credit. § 12. Interest rates in a crisis. § 13. Dynamic conditions and price readjustments. § 14. Tariff changes and business uncertainty. § 15. Rhythmic changes in weather and in crops. § 16. Remedies for crises. § 1. #Mischance, special and general, in business.# Every separate business enterprise is subject to chances which suddenly decrease its profits and the prosperity of its owners; such are fire, flood, illness of its owners, unfavorable changes in prices of materials or of the products.[1] The interests of many other persons in the neighborhood may be so bound up with an enterprise that its losses may mean unemployment, lower wages to workingmen, and bankruptcy to local merchants and to banks. Sometimes misfortune and disaster affect whole communities. The lack of cotton while the Civil War was in progress compelled the factories of Manchester to close in 1864, and the earthquake and fire in San Francisco in 1906 left a quarter of a million people homeless. But a change of business conditions is constantly occurring that is of wider extent, that is of less accidental and of more rhythmic nature, and that appears to be the effect of slowly working and more general causes. The enterprise of a modern community, as a whole, "general business," moves along, in a wavelike manner, going through a somewhat regular series of changes that is called a business cycle. We are now to study the nature of these cycles. § 2. #Definitions.# Crisis means, generally, a decisive moment or turning point. The word crisis suggests a brief period, a moment, something that is sudden, severe, and soon over. In medical usage it is the period when the disease must take a turn for better or for worse. As used in economics, the term, however, implies a sudden change of business conditions for the worse, a collapse of prosperity. What precedes has not the appearance of disease, but rather that of exuberant health. Crises in economics may be distinguished as industrial, speculative, and financial, according as one or another influence seems to be more potent, but all are essentially financial. The change that occurs always is connected in some way with the use of money and credit. A financial _crisis_ is the culmination of a period of rising prices, and a sudden fall which shatters the credit of some banks, brokers, merchants, and manufacturers. Every crisis is marked by much confusion and loss and by hasty efforts of individuals and institutions to meet their pressing obligations. Sometimes this process of liquidation goes on quietly and in other cases it becomes a wild scramble, each one trying to save himself, in which case it is a financial _panic_. An _industrial depression_ is the period of hard times that usually follows a financial crisis. § 3. #A feature of a money economy.# Financial crises, by their very nature, are confined to communities in which the money economy prevails and where there is a developed state of industry. The periods of industrial hardship in the Middle Ages were connected usually not with the collapse of prices, but with political oppression, famine, wars, pestilence, and scourges of nature. Throughout the lands money was little used and there was no development of credit and of credit prices. The money economy began, as has been noted, in the cities. As the use of money spread, as larger commercial enterprises were undertaken, as borrowing and the payment of interest became common, there began to appear in city trading circles, on a small scale, the phenomena of the modern crisis.[2] § 4. #European crises.# In Europe financial crises date from 1763 and have occurred at more or less regular intervals since. The common statement that the cycle of a crisis is run in a period of ten years, finds only partial support in history. The chief crises of the eighteenth century occurred in 1763, 1783, 1793, these dates marking the close of wars of some magnitude. The crises were not widespread or general, but were more marked in England, which was at that time farther developed industrially and in its money economy than other countries. Likewise, in the nineteenth century, the crises were of unequal force in various countries, usually being severer in England. They may be dated 1803, 1825, 1838, 1847, 1857, 1864-66, 1875, 1890, 1900, 1907, and 1914. These were attributed to various causes; that of 1825 to over-trading abroad; that of 1847 to railroad-building; while that of 1866 followed the severe disturbance of trade in 1864 caused by the interruption of the cotton trade and commerce by the Civil War in America. While in many parts of England the crisis of 1864 was unusually severe, in other countries it was of little moment. Germany, after several years of great speculative prosperity, had a most severe crisis in 1875; while France, although prostrated by the war of 1870-71, losing a large amount of wealth, and paying a thousand millions of dollars to Germany as a war indemnity, escaped a commercial crisis almost entirely at that time. § 5. #American crises.# Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, the financial connections of the United States with London, the leading loan market of Europe, have been such that every crisis in either England or America has extended its effects to the other country. But the disturbances are so modified by the particular conditions (of crops, politics, and speculation) that the phenomena never correspond exactly in time of occurrence, in duration, or in intensity. The first notable crisis in America occurred about 1817 in the very violent readjustment of trade after the resumption of commerce with Europe in 1816.[3] In 1837-39 came in quick succession two crises, not quite distinct from each other, the second similar to the relapse of a fever patient. The conditions were rapid westward expansion, over-speculation in lands, reckless state internal improvements, great issues of state bank notes, and the financial measures of Andrew Jackson, which included the dissolution of the Second Bank of the United States in 1836.[4] The crisis of 1857 followed a period of great prosperity marked by rising gold production and prices and a great increase in foreign trade. The crisis of 1873, possibly the severest in our history, followed great speculation, especially in the direction of railroad building on an unexampled scale after the war. The blow, when it fell, was intensified by the relative contraction of currency then in progress, leading to the return to a specie basis and lower prices.[5] The crisis of 1884, a comparatively slight one, occasioned (rather than caused) by the discussion of the money question, was followed by some years of noticeable depression. The years 1889 to 1892 witnessed prosperity, only slightly interrupted in 1890, that culminated in a crisis in May, 1893 (likewise generally explained as due to the unsettled state of our monetary system), followed by a period of great depression lasting until 1897. A rapid growth of business was checked but little in 1900 when a crisis occurred in Europe, especially severe in Germany. In November, 1902, began in America what has been called "the rich man's panic" of 1903 in which for a year many securities were sold by holders because European creditors were recalling their loans. American business, however, slackened but little, altho building operations were somewhat checked. General prices, which had been moving upward since 1897, remained almost unchanged in 1903 and 1904, and then continued going upward until 1907. In the period from September to November of that year occurred a severe crisis both in Europe and in America. The industrial depression following this was marked in 1908, slowly growing less. The crisis at the outbreak of the war in August, 1914, was quite exceptional, being due to the sudden demand of Europe upon New York for funds. Within a couple of months it was over and soon prices were again rising as the result of large exports of merchandise followed by gold imports. § 6. #A business cycle#. Let us now sketch in broad outline a business cycle, bearing in mind that this series of changes does not repeat itself with unvarying regularity, but that it is fairly typical in the modern business world. The period leading up to a crisis is one of relative prosperity; then occurs a crisis in which prices fall, at first rapidly, and afterward for a while going slowly lower. When prices are at the lowest point many factories are closed, and much labor is unemployed. Let us start at that point. Conditions are worse in some industries than in others. General economy and great caution prevail; few new enterprises are undertaken. For those persons having available funds this is a good time to buy, and property begins to change hands. Then hoarded money begins to come out of its hiding places. Money and credit flow in from other countries, particularly if business conditions are better abroad than here, for when prices are lower than they have been, relative to those of other countries, a country is a good place in which to buy. At the same time that the money in circulation thus increases, there is a general return of confidence that increases credit. Not only are there more dollars, but each does more work. Then old enterprises are resumed and new ones are undertaken. The purchase of materials in larger quantities causes a rapid rise in the prices of many raw materials and of all kinds of industrial equipment. The less efficient laborers and others that have been out of work, begin to find employment, and then, more tardily, wages begin to rise. As a result, the costs of many products begin to rise rapidly. The only classes not sharing in this improvement are the receivers of fixed incomes. As prices rise, the purchasing power of their incomes correspondingly falls. At length prices begin to go up less rapidly, and the question arises in many minds whether the movement can continue, and if not, when it will cease. Men wish to hold on for the last profits, and are willing to risk something to gain them. When prices rise not only as compared with former domestic prices, but as compared with current foreign prices, foreign imports are stimulated and exports fall. This calls for a new equilibrium of money and requires at length large and continued exportation of specie. This checks prices, and, reducing the specie reserves of the banks, compels them to be more cautious. At the same time the increase of costs in many industries begins to reduce profits. The fall in the value of many stocks and securities held by the banks forces many brokers and speculators to convert their resources into ready money. This is the moment of danger; weak enterprises find their foundations crumbling, and there are many failures.[6] The falling prices, the shattered credit, and the financial losses force many factories to close, and many workmen are thrown out of employment. This moment of widespread loss is the crisis, It is followed by another period of low prices and of small output, and therefore of profits small or negative in many industries. Business must again enter upon a period of retrenchment, for it has completed another cycle. § 7. #General features of a crisis.# Altho irregular in time of occurrence and unlike in their immediate occasions, financial crises show certain general features. They are a part of the larger movement here outlined as the business cycle. Some have thought this cycle to be normally a period of ten years, divided into one year of crisis, three years of depression, three years of recovery, and three years of unusual prosperity. This succession of events occurs pretty regularly, though not in the regular intervals of time. Crises are more severe in countries with more extensive use of money and credit, but still more severe where the credit system is more loosely administered and less efficiently coördinated. They are harder in the United States and England than in Germany, harder in Germany than in France, harder in western Europe than in eastern Europe, harder in Christendom than in heathendom. They are less severe in rural districts, where prosperity depends more on crop conditions, and business has in it less of financial speculation. Their effects are least felt in the staple industries, for when hard times come people economize on the less essential things. The glove-factory, the silk-factory, the golf-club-factory are more likely to close than the flour-mill. In a crisis wages and salaries are less affected than are profits, but wageworkers suffer in the loss of employment. Those money lenders who have eliminated chance as far as possible and have taken a low rate of interest lose little; the risk-takers who draw their incomes from dividends on stock or from bonds of a less stable kind, often lose much. § 8. #"Glut" theories of crises#. Many explanations of the causes of financial crises have been offered.[7] Nearly all of these belong to the general group of "glut" theories, of which genus there are two species, under-consumption and over-production theories. These are, in truth, but two aspects of the same idea.[8] The one view is that too many goods are produced, the other that too few are consumed. The over-production theorist seeing that in a crisis warehouses are filled with goods that cannot be disposed of for what they cost (or at best, not so as to give a profit), and that factories are shut down and men are out of employment for lack of demand, declares that productive power has grown too great. The under-consumption theorist, seeing the same facts, says that the trouble is lack of purchasing power. He observes that there are some people who would like to buy more of some of these things, but that such people lack income with which to buy. Usually he asserts that this is because production grows faster than wages, wages being fixed, as he believes, by the minimum of subsistence--a theory akin to the iron law of wages. In both over-production and under-consumption theories, the inequality of demand and supply is looked upon as a general one. There is supposed to be not merely an unequal and mistaken distribution of production, but a general excess of productive power. The wide vogue held by these views would justify a fuller discussion and disproof of them here, did space permit. It must suffice to indicate merely that they have the same taint of illogicalness as the "fallacy of waste," and the "fallacy of luxury."[9] They overlook the fact that an income, either of money or of other goods, coming even to the wealthiest, will be used in some way. It may be used either for immediate consumption or for further indirect use in durable form. Through miscalculation there may be, at a given moment, too many consumption goods of a particular kind, but the durable applications can find no limit until the inconceivable day when the material world is no longer capable of improvement. At the time of a crisis, there is unquestionably a bad apportionment of productive agents, and a still worse adjustment of their valuations, but these facts should not be taken as proving that there is an excess of all kinds of economic goods. § 9. #Monetary theories of crises.# Another group of theories explains the crises as being due to money, either too much or too little. The unregulated issue of bank notes has been assigned as the cause of crises, especially under the circumstances accompanying such crises as those of 1837 and 1857 in America, when bank note issues greatly contributed to the unsound expansion of credit. The issue of government paper money years before, leading to inflation and speculation, was by many believed to be the cause of the crisis of 1873. The reverse view is taken by the advocates of a cheap and plentiful money. They say that these crises were caused, not by the expansion, but by the contraction of the money stock; for example, not by the inflation of prices through the issue of greenbacks in 1862 to 1865, but by the contraction of the currency from 1866 to 1873. There is only a fragment of truth in these various views. It is always lack of "money" at the moment of the crisis that causes any particular failure, and in that sense it is always lack of "money" that causes a crisis. The question is, whether in any reasonable sense it can be said that it was lack of a circulating medium before the crisis that brought it on. There is no support for this view, except in the rare case when the money standard is undergoing a rapid change, as in the United States from 1866 to 1873, and the statement then needs much modification and explanation. The monetary theories of crises are a bit nearer to the truth than are those of the over-production type, for the crisis is always connected with prices and credit. But it is clear that these rhythmic price changes occurring in the business cycle are not due to the same causes as are the general movements of the price level, due to an increasing or decreasing output of gold or again to a paper money inflation. Statistics show that while a general price level is slowly changing like a tidal movement, the effect of the rhythmic business cycle appears now in hastening, now in retarding, the changes in the price level. § 10. #Capitalization theory of crises#. Here we verge upon a different type of explanation of the financial crisis--one of a psychological nature. The quantity of money, we have seen, affects prices more or less according as credit is more or less used in connection with it. Money plus confidence has a larger power of sustaining prices, than money without, or with less, confidence. And throughout the business cycle the amount of confidence, expressed in such ways as the readiness to grant credits and in the easy extension of the time of collection, is constantly changing. Over-confidence at one time is suddenly followed by widespread lack of confidence. This has led some to say that lack of confidence is the cause of crises. This is a truism, but it does not explain what is the real cause of this lack of confidence, which, when the crisis comes, is not mere unreasoning fear that needs only to ignore the danger to banish it. Might it not just as truly, if not more truly, be said that the cause is _over-confidence_ in the period preceding the crisis? The essential characteristic of a crisis is the forcible and sudden movement of readjustment in the mistaken capitalization of productive agents. Capitalization runs through all industry. The value of everything that lasts for more than a moment is built in part upon incomes that are not actual, but expectative, whose amount, therefore, is a matter of guesswork, or "speculation."[10] Many unknown factors enter into the estimate of future incomes. The universal tendency to rhythm in motion (material or psychic) manifests itself in an overestimate or underestimate of incomes and of every other factor in value. This is emphasized by a psychological factor called sometimes the "hypnotism of the crowd," and sometimes, the "mob mind." Most men follow a leader in investment as in other things. The spirit of speculation grows till often it becomes almost a frenzy, and people rush toward this or that investment, throwing capitalization in some industries far out of equilibrium with that in others. The cause of crises immediately back of the maladjusted capitalization thus is seen to be a psychological factor; it is the rhythmic miscalculation of incomes and of capital value, occurring to some degree throughout industry, but particularly in certain lines. This subjective cause in men is given an opportunity for action only when certain favoring objective conditions are present. § 11. #The use of credit.# Most noteworthy of these objective conditions is the general use of credit. The credit system greatly enhances the rhythm of price. If the value of a thing that is fully paid for falls, the owner alone loses; but if the value of a thing only partly paid for falls so much that the owner is forced to default in his payment, the loss may be transmitted along the line of credit to every one in a long series of transactions. A credit system, highly developed, is a house of cards at a time of financial stress. Demand liabilities are at such a time the greatest danger, so that the banks, ordinarily the pillars of financial strength, become at such a time the points of greatest weakness in the financial situation. If many of the customers were not restrained by their sense of personal obligation to the banks, by the strong pressure which the banks can bring to bear upon them, or by the force of public opinion among business men, from withdrawing the balances to their credit in a time of crisis, all commercial banks would become insolvent at once in a crisis by the very nature of their business; for all their ordinary deposits are nominally payable on demand. § 12. #Interest rates in a crisis.# In normal times there is always outstanding a great mass of short-time, commercial loans.[11] The motive of the borrower, in most cases has been to hire more labor and to buy more materials for use in his business. Ordinarily these loans can and are renewed without difficulty or are replaced by others, based on the security of new business transactions in unbroken succession. Now at the time of a crisis a general contraction of credit occurs, and all borrowers with maturing obligations are faced with bankruptcy. The effort of the business man at such a time is not to make a positive profit, but to save what he can from the threatened wreck. The demand for short-time loans, therefore, in such times of stress, fluctuates rapidly, and exceedingly high interest rates prevail in these loan markets for a few days or a few weeks, rates which have only a remote relationship with the usual capitalization of most agents. The distress of the business man is magnified by the fact that it is just at such times that both the equipment he has bought and the products he has made become temporarily almost unsaleable at prices as high as he paid for them when he bought them with the borrowed money. He may know that prices will soon be higher, but he cannot wait. Various courses are open to him in this emergency; he may borrow the money at a very high rate of interest, holding the goods for better prices; or he may sell the goods under the unfavorable conditions; or he may sell other capital such as stocks and bonds. The end sought is the same--to get ready money; and the methods are not essentially unlike--the exchange of greater future values for smaller present values. The sacrifice sale thus reveals the merchant's high estimate of present goods in the form of money. The purchaser of some kinds of property in times of depression is securing them at a lower capitalization than they will later have. The rise in value may be foreseen as well by seller as by buyer, but the low capitalization reflects the high interest rate temporarily obtaining. A.T. Stewart, once the most famous New York merchant, is said to have laid the foundation of his fortune when, being out of debt himself, he bought up the bankrupt stocks of his competitors in a great financial panic. The high interest at such times is but the reflection of the high premium on present purchasing power. The worst of the evils of crises are confined to the markets where the greatest numbers of short-time loans are made. Most of the long-time loans do not fall due in such seasons of stress, and the great mass of slowly exchanging wealth alters little and slowly in price. Such loans as fall due can generally be renewed for long periods at rates little higher than usual, the market for long-time and short-time loans being in large measure independent of each other. But they are not quite independent, and some lenders take whatever sums they can collect on maturing long-time obligations and loan them on short terms at high rates of interest, or buy goods, whole enterprises, bonds, and stocks, at the unusually low prices temporarily prevailing. The effect of this is to raise somewhat the interest rate on long-time paper to accord with the new conditions. § 13. #Dynamic conditions and price readjustments.# Another condition favorable to the rhythmic movement of capitalization is a dynamic economic society. The past century has opened up new fields for investment on an unexampled scale. Investment has advanced both intensively and extensively in a series of great waves. New machinery and processes have given undreamt of opportunities for enterprise in the older countries, and the physical frontier of investment has moved outward with the march of millions of immigrants to people the fertile wilderness. Such factors disturb the equilibrium of prices both in time and space, give a powerful impulse toward higher values in the older lands, and stimulate the hopes of all investors. When the balance between the capitalizations of various industries and between the incomes of the various periods proves to be false, the inevitable readjustment causes suffering and loss to many, but particularly in the inflated industries. But, because of the mutual relations of men in business, few even of those who have kept freest from speculation can quite escape the evils. Among the dynamic conditions in industry are changes in the general price level whether due to changes in the production of the standard money commodity (relative to population) or to changing methods of doing business. If the price level is falling (i.e., the standard unit is appreciating), the burden of the great mass of outstanding debts is growing heavier upon the debtors.[12] Sooner or later some of them break down under its weight. At such times many attempt to shift their capital from active investments such as stocks, to passive investments such as bonds. When the price level is rising, the opposite conditions prevail. But such adjustments proceed uncertainly and unevenly in different industries, with much speculation in shifting from one type of business to another, and with much accompanying miscalculation. § 14. #Tariff changes and business uncertainty.# Another variable influence in American business has been the tariff. Every tariff revision, whether the rates go upward or downward, shifts somewhat the relative opportunities and profitableness of different industries. Some of these call for far-reaching readjustments of investments and of productive forces. Some persons gain and some lose by every such change. It is observed that a reduction of tariff rates seems to have a more disturbing effect upon business than does an increase. This probably is because the industries favored by protective tariffs in America are those most fully within the circle affected by crises; whereas most of the consumers adversely affected by a rise of tariff rates are outside the commercial circles where short-time credit is common and where the rapid readjustment of investment leads to a financial crisis. It never has been convincingly shown, however, that there is any large measure of correspondence in time (not to say causal relation) between tariff revisions and crises.[13] § 15. #Rhythmic changes in weather and in crops#. A psychological movement, once started, accumulates force and momentum up to a certain point where a reaction begins. This rhythmic movement as it appears in the capitalization of enterprises is favored and magnified, we have seen, by the wide use of credit and by the constantly changing technical and physical conditions of industry. These call for constant revaluations of the sources of incomes, thus destroying customary and habitual valuations. But why should the cycle begin or end at one point of time rather than at another; and what determines the length of the cycle? Some of the new dynamic forces such as inventions and growth of population are distributed pretty regularly along the line, so that their influences are nearly equalized. But occasionally some large impulse may serve to start a swing and if this impulse is somewhat regularly repeated, it may serve to keep up the rhythmic motion. True, the lack of coincidence in the impact of various influences which occur accidentally, such as political changes, wars, and the rapid opening of new routes of transportation, would serve to hasten or to retard, perhaps for a time quite to alter, what would otherwise be the rhythm of the cycle. That there is nevertheless, a noticeable degree of regularity in the recurrence of crises may be due to the presence of one dominating factor. Alternation of good and poor harvests has always seemed to be favorable to business prosperity. In America since about 1865, farm products have constituted the larger part of our exports, so that a succession of large harvests has usually acted to stimulate exports (one of the features of a period of prosperity), to give us a larger credit balance in international trade, and to reduce the rate of exchange. Large harvests of the staple agricultural crops in America have been known to be closely related to the amount of rainfall in the three most important growing months. Recently, it has been shown that the rainfall of the Ohio Valley occurs in cycles of about eight years, and in a larger cycle of thirty-three years. The cycle of yield per acre of the nine principal crops is shown to correspond closely with the cycle of pig iron production (one of the best single indices of growing business) dated one to two years later.[14] As the cycles of rainfall and of harvests are not coincident in different countries, it will require further study to adjust to these observations the fact of the world-wide extent of the great financial crises. But a better understanding of objective conditions of this kind will give fuller meaning to the psychological interpretation of crises. § 16. #Remedies for crises#. The financial crisis must be looked upon as an economic disease which brings many evils in its train. The need is not merely to mitigate the severity of the brief period of crisis, but also to smooth out the curve of the business cycle so as to reduce periodic unemployment, the lottery element in profits, and the number of unmerited failures in business. Several measures may aid toward this end. In the past the crisis has been more severe in America than in Europe because of certain well-recognized defects which now have been largely remedied in the Federal Reserve Act.[15] The provisions whereby any one may get credit on good commercial assets should make it impossible for a crisis to degenerate into a panic. This legislation has provided springs to reduce the jolt of the change from a higher to a lower level of prices. Probably other improvements may be made in our banking laws. Competent students of the subject have urged that the payment of interest on deposits not subject to notice before withdrawal should be made unlawful, because demand deposits constitute the greatest danger at critical times. In principle this objection is sound, tho experience may show that this evil has been practically remedied by other features of the Federal Reserve Act. Moreover, bankers could, by pursuing a more conservative policy, discourage speculative methods of enterprise. The strong public disapproval of stock-market speculation on margins may some day be able to express itself effectively in ways that will not injure healthy business. Greater stability in our tariff policy would remove a constantly disturbing factor in prices, as would likewise the stabilizing of the standard of deferred payments. In the attempt to remedy the great evil of unemployment, public works of every kind might be planned and distributed in time so as to better equalize the demand for labor and materials. Finally, much better commercial statistics are needed, and for collecting them and reporting the outlook, government organization is required comparable in range and methods to the weather bureau. It cannot be expected, however, that financial crises, in the sense of general readjustments of prices downward from time to time, ever can be completely abolished. There will always be changes in general industrial conditions calling for reevaluation of the existing sources of income; and in this process there will always be a tendency to rhythmic swing like that of a river, which carries the stream of prices now on this side of the valley, now on that. But this fluctuation of general prices surely can be so greatly moderated in magnitude and in evil results as to make the word "crisis" almost a misnomer. It is toward the attainment of this irreducible minimum of uncertainty and disaster in business that efforts should be directed. [Footnote 1: On the way these affect private profits see Vol. I, pp. 340, 341 (and references there given in note), 348 ff. and 361 ff. There are thus good reasons for discussing crises in connection with profits, as well as with money and banking.] [Footnote 2: See Vol. I, pp. 51, 154, 300-302.] [Footnote 3: See below, ch. 15, sec. 5, on the tariff legislation at this time.] [Footnote 4: See ch. 8, sec. 1.] [Footnote 5: See ch. 6, sec 5.] [Footnote 6: See diagram of business failures 1890-1914, in Vol. I p. 364.] [Footnote 7: In the first annual report of the United States Commissioner of Labor is given a long catalog of theories that have been suggested, many of them quite fantastic.] [Footnote 8: See Vol. I, ch. 38, on Abstinence and Production. Believers in the glut theory usually condemn efforts to encourage frugality among the masses, calling it the "fallacy of saving."] [Footnote 9: See Vol. I, ch. 37, secs, 6 and 9.] [Footnote 10: See e.g., Vol. I, pp. 271. 335, 365 367.] [Footnote 11: See Vol. I, p. 304.] [Footnote 12: See above, ch. 6, on the standard of deferred payments.] [Footnote 13: See note on tariff legislation and business crises, end of ch. 15.] [Footnote 14: In both cases there is what is called in statistics a high degree of correlation (viz., .719 and .800), indicating that there is that percentage of probability that there is some causal relation between the two sets of figures.] [Footnote 15: See above, ch. 9, secs. 5, 6, 8.] CHAPTER 11 INSTITUTIONS FOR SAVING AND INVESTMENT § 1. The nature of saving. § 2. Economic limit of saving. § 3. Commercial bank deposits of an investment nature. § 4. Investment banking. § 5. Savings banks in the United States. § 6. Typical mutual savings banks. § 7. Postal savings plan. § 8. Advantages of the postal savings plan. § 9. Collection of savings and education in thrift. § 10. Building and loan associations. § 11. The main features. § 12. The continuous plan. § 13. The distribution of earnings. § 14. Possible developments of savings institutions. § 1. #The nature of saving.# The motives actuating the different classes of lenders may, for our present purpose, be reduced to two: to postpone the consumption of income, and to obtain a net income from wealth (or investment). Saving always is relative to a particular period and is for more or less distant ends. The child saves its pennies to go to the circus next week, the working girl saves her dimes for a new hat next spring, the earnest high school pupil saves to go to college next year, and the provident man saves for his family's future needs and for his own old age. But always, to constitute saving, there must be for the time a net result: the excess of income over consumptive outgo in that period. This is easily distinguishable from various forms of pseudo-saving of which many persons that are really spending all their incomes are very proud. Such forms are: planning to buy a particular thing and then deciding not to do so, but buying something else; finding the price less than was expected, and thereupon using this so-called saving for another purpose; spending less than some one else for a particular purpose, such as food, but off-setting this by larger outlay for another purpose, such as clothing; spending all one's own income but less than some one else with a larger income. We may define saving as the conversion, into expenditure for consumptive use, of less than one's net income within a given income period. Saving goes on in a natural economy both by accumulation of indirect agents and by elaboration so as to improve their quality.[1] It goes on to-day by the replacement of perishable by durative agents, as in replacing a wooden house by one of stone or concrete, and by producing wealth without consuming it, as in increasing the number of cattle on one's farm. But saving has come to be increasingly made in the form of money (or of monetary funds), and in this chapter we shall consider some of the ways in which this can now be done. § 2. #Economic limit of saving#. There is an economic limit to saving, as judged from the standpoint of each individual.[2] The ultimate purpose of every act of saving is the provision of future incomes, either as total sums to be used later or as new (net) incomes to be received at successive periods. The economic limit of saving in each case is dependent upon the person's present needs in relation to present income and conditions, as compared with the prospect of his future needs in relation to his future income and conditions. Each free economic subject must form a judgment and make his choice as best he can and in the light of experience. There is no absolute and infallible standard of judgment that can be applied by outsiders to each case. Yet there is occasion to deplore the improvidence that is fostered and that prevails, especially among those receiving their incomes in the form of wage or salary. Considered with reference to the possible maximum of welfare of the individuals themselves, the apportionment of their incomes in time is frequently woful. It is uneconomic for families of small income to save through buying less food than is needed to keep them in health; but it is likewise uneconomic to spend the income, when work is plentiful and wages good, for expensive foods having little nutriment and then, for lack of savings, to go badly underfed when work is slack and wages are small. There is for each class of circumstances a golden mean of saving. The saving habit may develop to irrational excess and become miserliness, but this happens rarely compared with the many cases where men in the period of their largest earnings spend up to the limit on a gay life and make no provision for any of the mischances of life--business reverses, loss of employment, accidents, temporary sickness, permanent invalidity, or unprovided old age. Despite the development of late of new agencies and opportunities for saving there is need of doing more toward popular education in thrift.[3] § 3. #Commercial bank deposits of an investment nature.# If a commercial bank pays no interest on demand deposits there is no motive for the depositor to keep a balance larger than he needs as current purchasing power. When his bank account increases beyond that point, it becomes available for a more or less lasting investment to yield financial income. If the sum is small or if the owner is at all uncertain as to his plans or if he is not in a position to find another attractive form of investment, the offer by the bank of a small rate of interest on special time deposits (2 to 3 per cent is not an unusual rate in such cases) will suffice to cause him to leave such funds in the bank. Since about 1900 the practice has been greatly extended of paying interest even on "current balances" of regular checking accounts (demand deposits). If the new 5 per cent rule[4] as to reserves against time deposits operates to cause commercial banks generally to pay a rate ranging from 2-1/2 to 3-1/2 per cent on time deposits, their amount will doubtless increase greatly. But still, in the future as in the past, those depositors having funds that can be invested for considerable periods will seek a higher rate of interest than can be obtained from commercial banks. In their loaning function the "commercial" banks (as the adjective indicates) serve mainly the special needs of the _commercial_ elements of the community--business men borrowing for short terms to carry out particular transactions. Loans made on short-time commercial paper (quick assets) are very suitable to the needs of a bank that has its liabilities largely in the form of demand deposits. Time deposits can be more safely loaned on the security of real estate and for longer periods. Despite their limitations in this respect, the commercial banks must be recognized as of growing importance in the work of encouraging and collecting small savings, which in many cases are better invested in other ways. In 1916, the centenary of the beginning of savings banks in this country, a nation-wide propaganda was undertaken by the American Bankers' Association for the encouragement of savings. § 4. #Investment banking#. Enormous amounts of securities issued by governments or by corporations (railroad or industrial) are now on the market and to be bought conveniently by private investors. Through special bond houses some bonds are to be had in denominations as small as $100 and $500. The regular brokers on the stock exchanges buy and sell, for a small commission, the regular bonds and investment stocks. Several large statistical and financial expert agencies[5] in return for an annual subscription, offer advice to investors regarding general market conditions and special securities. For a large number of investors the personal examination and selection of sound securities is too difficult a task. To serve their needs many bonds and trust companies have of late developed special departments for investment banking. Through these agencies the banks are constantly placing as relatively permanent investments securities which they have bought or have aided "to float" or which they handle only as commission agents. In any case the real investment banker is bringing to his task special training and a high sense of his professional obligations, and is employing the services of statisticians, financial experts, and of practical engineers to determine exactly the fundamental conditions of each investment. Investment banking promises to increase steadily in amount and importance. § 5. #Savings banks in the United States.# For the increasing number of wage-earners, salaried employees, and persons following professions, investment as active capitalists is impossible.[6] Their savings must take the form of passive investments. But there are few good opportunities for lending money in small amounts, without great risk, and the requirement of skill, time, and labor to look after the loans and to collect the interest is prohibitive to a small lender. To provide a place where small sums could be kept with safety and so as to yield a moderate rate of income, the first modern savings bank in the United States was instituted in New York in 1816 after a plan already developed in England. In form these banks are mutual, having no capital stock on which dividends are to be paid. The boards of trustees are self-perpetuating and receive only fees for attending meetings. In their legal aspect these banks have a philanthropic character. Their investments are limited by law to specified, conservative classes of securities and loans on real estate. The total increase from investments is, after paying the expenses of operation and setting aside a surplus, distributable to the depositors at regular periods. In the United States the number of such institutions reported in 1914 was 2100.[7] They have over 11,000,000 depositors, deposits to the amount of $5,000,000,000, an average deposit of $444 per depositor, or of $50 per capita of the whole population. These figures are very unequally distributed geographically, the divisions ranking as to total deposits in the following order: the Eastern Middle, New England, Middle Western, Pacific, Southern, and Western divisions. The first two of these groups of states have about 75 per cent of all the deposits, the Southern states hardly 2 per cent, and the Western (North Dakota to Oklahoma) only 1/4 of 1 per cent. § 6. #Typical mutual savings banks#. About one third of these banks are on the mutual plan, having no capital stock (most of them in the East) and these contain about four fifths of all the deposits. The stock savings banks have individual deposits of over a billion dollars, and have outstanding capital stock to the amount of about $90,000,000 (about 9 per cent of their deposits). These stock savings banks to a much greater extent than do the mutual banks transact also a commercial business. The banks on the mutual plan are therefore the most important, the typical savings banks. The average rate of interest they paid to depositors in 1914 was 3.86 per cent. About one half of their resources are invested in loans, mostly to small borrowers on the security of real estate, and most of the remainder consists of bonds and other securities of the safer kinds. Savings banks are subject to the supervision and inspection of the banking departments in the several states, a fact that exerts a salutary effect though not insuring absolutely against either mistaken judgment or dishonesty on the part of the bank officials.[8] Savings banks seek to keep invested as large a part as possible of their assets, keeping only in ready cash enough to meet a possible temporary excess of withdrawals over deposits. In contrast with the policy of commercial banks with their demand deposits, the sound policy for savings banks is to reserve the right to require notice of intention to withdraw. The period of such notice varies from a minimum of ten days to a maximum of about sixty days. In ordinary circumstances it is not needful or usual for a bank to exercise this right, but it is a needful safeguard in times of commercial crises. This requirement of notice is greatly to the advantage of depositors collectively and thus of the community as a whole. It is not an undue limitation of the rights of the individual depositor. It is unfair for the individual, in a period of financial stress, to seek his own safety in a manner which is impossible for all, and thus to endanger the interests of all.[9] The mutual savings banks in 1914 had (on the average) but six tenths of a cent of actual cash (and "checks and cash items") in their tills for every dollar of deposits, but in addition they had for every dollar of deposits four cents due on demand from state and national (commercial) banks. In the aggregate these demand deposits amounted to the large sum of $172,000,000, a large part of which bore a low rate of interest. The depositors in savings banks have a direct legal claim on the bank as a corporation. The bank's only means of payment are its assets, consisting of claims upon the owners of such wealth as houses, factories, railroads, electric light plants, good roads, and school buildings. Thus virtually the depositors have by their savings made possible the building and equipping of these actual forms of wealth, and have an equitable claim upon the usance of them, which claim is met by the payment of interest and dividends to the savings banks. Viewed in this way the great social importance of the savings function appears, and the importance of developing the savings institutions. § 7. #Postal savings plan.# In many countries of the world the governments have not only authorized private, corporate, and trustee savings banks, but have provided public agencies where it is possible for the citizens to deposit small amounts. Thus municipal, and what are called communal, savings banks are operated by many European cities; but the most effective and widely used agencies for the purpose are the national post-offices. Postal savings banks, or postal savings systems as divisions of the postal service, are now found in all the larger countries of the world, and in many smaller ones. The United States of America was almost the last civilized country to establish such a system, which was authorized by act of Congress in 1910, and went into operation in a few designated cities in January, 1911. The number of offices at which it was in operation was rapidly increased, and the number in 1914 was about 10,000. Any one ten years of age may become a depositor. Deposit must be made always in multiples of one dollar. Not more than $100 will be accepted for deposit in any one calendar month, and nothing after the total balance to the depositor's credit is as much as $1000, exclusive of accumulated interest. However, amounts less than one dollar may be saved for deposit by purchasing a ten-cent postal savings card and affixing ten-cent postal savings stamps until the nine blank spaces are filled. Such a filled card will be accepted as a deposit of one dollar either in opening an account or in adding to an existing account. Deposits are not entered in a depositor's book, as is the usual practice of savings banks, but are evidenced by certificates issued in fixed denominations of $1, $2, $5, $10, $20, $50, and $100. These bear interest, from the first day of the month next following that in which the deposit is made, at the rate of 2 per cent per annum for a whole year (interest is not paid for any fraction of a year). Interest is not compounded, unless the depositor withdraws the interest and redeposits it, but simple interest continues to accrue annually on a certificate so long as it is outstanding, without limitation as to time. By the end of the first year (1911) of operation the savings system held a balance to the credit of depositors of nearly $11,000,000; in the next year (1912) there was added to this about $17,000,000; in the next year (1913) about $12,000,000; and this average rate of one million dollars a month net addition to deposits has continued to the present (1916). These funds are deposited in banks belonging to the federal reserve system, which must deposit with the Treasurer of the United States designated kinds of bonds (national, state, and municipal) as security and pay interest at the rate of 2-1/2 per cent on the amount of the deposits. The one-half per cent difference between this rate and that paid to individuals goes far toward paying the expense of operating the system. Provision is made for the issue of postal savings bonds in exchange for certificates issued in sums of $20 or multiples thereof up to $500. These bonds bear interest at the rate of 2-1/2 per cent payable in semi-annual instalments, January 1 and July 1. These bonds are not counted as a part of the $500 maximum of deposits allowed to one person, and there is no limit to the amount of bonds which may be acquired by one depositor. Postal savings bonds are exempt from all kinds of taxes, federal and local. These bonds are issued only on the surrender of postal savings deposits, but may be sold by the owner at any time. Three years after the law went into effect, there were $4,635,820 of postal savings bonds outstanding. § 8. #Advantages of the postal savings plan.# As compared with corporate savings banks the postal savings system has certain advantages. (a) It protects the small depositors from the danger of dishonest private bankers who have preyed upon the immigrants in the larger cities. To foreigners, accustomed to the postal savings plan in their home countries, it is especially useful. (b) It gives to every depositor the greatest safety possible, as "the faith of the United States is solemnly pledged" for the repayment of depositors. (c) It brings a savings institution to many a small town and rural place formerly entirely lacking in facilities for small depositors. The benefit of this has not immediately appeared to be great, but may in time prove to be. (d) It pays interest from the first of the month following the date of deposit whereas the usual practice of savings and commercial banks is to pay only from the beginning of the quarter year or half year. (e) It provides for the exchange of deposits for bonds bearing a higher rate of interest--a unique feature greatly simplifying for the small saver the process of buying bonds for more lasting investment. In some respects, however, the postal savings system falls short of the advantages of the regular savings banks. These usually accept for deposit as small an amount as ten cents; they pay interest either quarterly or semi-annually; they pay on the average (at present) almost double the rate of interest, and the interest is credited to the depositor's account at stated intervals and automatically compounded. The postal savings system, as the law now stands, may be looked upon, therefore, as supplementing the regular savings banks rather than competing with them. § 9. #Collection of savings and education in thrift.# Small savings have been encouraged in many places by penny provident funds, dime savings banks, and school savings funds, which have been conducted at public schools, social settlements, and factories, by school officers and by charitable and educational societies acting through canvassers. These plans all call for much personal effort and cost, which must be provided by volunteer services and private gifts. These plans being undertaken mainly as a means of education in thrift and in the related moralities, their results are not to be measured merely by the magnitude of the sums collected. They are not rivals of the ordinary savings banks, but rather auxiliary methods of encouraging their use. The funds collected by these agencies are usually deposited in local savings banks, and depositors are encouraged to open individual accounts there, whenever they have considerable sums saved. In Germany the public schools have been furnished with automatic stamp vending machines, from which savings stamps in as small denominations as ten pfennigs (2-1/2 cents) may be had by dropping a coin into a slot.[10] This method could be used very effectively in connection either with the postal savings system or with a local savings bank. It ought to be made easy to deposit funds at every school house, at every post-office, at every factory counter on pay day, and wherever people pass in numbers. Allurements to foolish expenditures meet old and young at every turn; to spend the dime is made all too easy, whereas to save it and deposit it in a safe place too often calls for wasteful and discouraging efforts from the person of small means. § 10. #Building and loan associations.# Building and loan association is the name applied to a coöperative organization of persons with the purpose of collecting regularly from members small sums which are loaned to some members for the purpose of building or paying for homes.[11] The first association of this type was organized in Frankford, Pennsylvania, in 1831. It and others of its kind have made Philadelphia notable among all the larger cities as "the city of homes." The number of such associations has almost steadily increased in the United States. Pennsylvania continues to rank first in respect to amount of total assets, with Ohio a close second, and New Jersey third (the ranking first in proportion to population). Associations of this type have been hardly second in importance in America to the savings banks as institutions for savings for persons of moderate means. The number of their members (nearly 3,000,000) is about one-fourth of that of savings bank depositors, and the amount of their assets (1-1/4 billion dollars) is about one-fourth that of the reported savings banks. But their relative influence in educating and encouraging to thrift is doubtless much greater than these figures indicate. There are more than three times as many of them as of reported savings banks, their management is much more democratic than is that of the banks, and many of their members attend and participate in the meetings and understand how they are conducted. Moreover, the savings made through these associations are constantly passing on into the houses that are fully paid for, and which continue to yield their incomes to their owners. Each year these associations collect from their members as dues and in repayment of loans (made to build houses) the sum of over half a billion dollars, which is twice as much as the annual increase in the deposits of the reported savings banks.[12] § 11. #The main features.# A building and loan association is organized by a group of persons in a neighborhood, uniting to form a corporation under the laws of the state, every member to subscribe for one or more shares. The officers elected all serve without pay excepting the secretary-treasurer, who receives a small fee for his services. All official meetings are open to all members. The shares vary in denomination from $25 to $200; the larger figure being common under the serial plan and $100 being usual under the continuous (or permanent) plan, described below. Whenever there is a sufficient sum it is loaned to one of the members for the purpose of building a house. The borrower must subscribe for shares to the par value of his loan. The receipts of the association are of several kinds. (a) Interest is received from members, usually at the rate of 6 per cent, and from banks at a lower rate on the small working cash balances kept on deposit. Usually the loans made are large enough to cover a large proportion of the cost of the house, but the land on which the house stands must be free from all incumbrance, and its value gives a margin of safety to the association. Then by the method of payment of dues the debt is, from the first month, steadily reduced and the security for the loan therefore grows constantly better. (b) Premiums are collected in addition, sometimes in the form of a higher rate of interest, but the practice of charging premiums has been mostly abandoned and the total amount of premiums now constitutes less than 1 per cent of all payments from members. (c) Fines for delinquency also are less commonly imposed now and constitute a small fraction of 1 per cent of total payments. (d) Deductions are made on account of withdrawal before the maturity of the shares; under these circumstances it is usual to pay a portion but not all of the accumulated profits, sometimes a proportion increasing as the shares approach maturity. Different plans have been and still are followed in respect to the method of issuing the shares. Under the _terminating plan_ all the shares begin and mature at the same time (for all members that continue to the end). Whereupon the association dissolves or starts anew. The chief difficulty in this plan is that the association has too few funds to loan at the beginning of its career, and a surplus of unloanable funds as it nears the maturity of the series. It is therefore necessary to encourage or to compel the withdrawal of non-borrowing members on the payment of estimated profits to date. The better to remedy this difficulty the _serial plan_ was devised, by which new series of stock are issued at intervals--yearly, half-yearly, quarterly, and even oftener. § 12. #The continuous plan.# A further development is the continuous plan (usually called the _permanent_ or the Dayton plan), by which much greater flexibility is attained in the organization. Shares of stock may be subscribed for at any time, each man's separate subscription of shares being treated as a separate series, and maturing each at its own time. There is thus, after an association has been for some time in operation, a continuous stream of new members (or new subscriptions) flowing into the association, and a continuous outflow of shareholders whose shares have matured. The maturing shares of borrowing members discharge their indebtedness to the association; the maturing shares of non-borrowing members are paid in money, or may (if the association has use for the funds) be left as an interest-bearing loan. Additional funds are obtained when needed by issuing paid-up stock to non-borrowers. This is convenient at the beginning of an association and when the movement in building is more active than usual. But if an association has funds that cannot be loaned, outstanding paid-up stock may be called in. In practice a large part of the paid-up stock as well as of the running stock is subscribed for and held not by large capitalists but by persons of small means, especially "the more frugal element in the working classes." Non-borrowing members desiring to withdraw may do so at any time under certain conditions; but to safeguard the association, the laws usually require that thirty days' notice of intention to withdraw shall be given, that not more than one half of the funds received in any one month shall be paid on withdrawals, and that withdrawing shareholders shall be paid in the order of the notices of intention to withdraw. The most intelligent and prudent workers were formerly deterred from subscribing by the fear that sickness, unemployment, or other mishap might make it impossible to keep up regular payments. Now, however, fines for late payment have been almost entirely done away with. On the other hand, extra payments may be made at any time by borrowing members, to hasten the date when their shares mature and their debt be discharged. These privileges are possible because of the method of distributing earnings which will now be described. § 13. #The distribution of earnings.# Every six months is ascertained the amount of the gross earnings which, under this plan, consist almost entirely of interest paid on loans. From this amount are deducted expenses (and in some states 5 per cent of the total is placed in a "loss fund" to meet possible losses) and the rest is divided in proportion to the amount standing to the credit of each member, being credited to the account of running stock and paid in cash to holders of paid-up stock. The payment of dues is correspondingly simple. The dues at twenty-five cents a week amount to $13 a year per share of $100. This is the whole bill; there are no extras. The interest at 6 per cent (the usual rate) is $6, and the rest, $7, is credited upon the stock. Thus at the end of the first six months the member has $3.50 to his credit, and is entitled to his share of the net earnings on that amount. Thus his share of the earnings is steadily increased by compound interest, and if he keeps up his regular payments the shares mature in about sixteen years. This means in most cases that a prudent tenant can become the owner of a house in sixteen years while paying no more than the rent would be. As the active investor he becomes his own rent collector and uses the house with less need of repairs, thus dispensing with services and costs which are included in contractual rents.[13] These associations are properly made subject to supervision and examination by state officials, in the manner of that exercised over banks. They have been favored by exempting the shares of members and the mortgages held by the associations from all state and municipal taxation. As the houses built or paid for are taxed, this is of course but just, but it is an exception to the rule of the illogical general property tax.[14] § 14. #Possible developments of savings institutions.# The social importance of increasing and improving the agencies of savings for the masses is being more fully recognized, but much more might be done in these directions. Some possible changes have been suggested above, and a few words more may be added. Probably the greatest developments in the near future will be through the savings departments of commercial banks (favored by the reserve rules of the Federal Reserve Act) rather than by the increase in the number of special banks for savings. The initial expense and risk of starting a savings bank is considerable, and outside of cities of some size this is prohibitive. Whereas a savings department, with its funds and reserves separated, can be easily and cheaply operated in connection with a general bank. It is much to be desired, however, that a larger measure of popular coöperation might be made possible to the depositors, both for its educational value and to reduce the real evil of the autocratic or the plutocratic centralization of the money power in the small communities. Savings banks usually limit the amount of an account to $3000. It is desirable that depositors should be able easily to convert their savings-bank deposits over certain amounts into good bonds, bearing a higher rate of interest (after the method of the issue of postal savings bonds). There is need of a central market in each community where such bonds can be bought and sold at any time; and the savings banks might easily serve to buy and sell for their customers in this way in the larger bond market. This would be of benefit also to the states and municipalities which issue bonds for such purposes as schools, roads, and public utilities, by creating a more open and regular market to small investors than now is provided for such securities. This might somewhat reduce the rate of interest and there would be a gain divided between taxpayers and lenders. The general plan and principles of local building and loan associations might well be extended to groups of rural coöperators, enabling them to make loans to their members; and to groups of small investors, permitting them to hold real estate mortgages and bonds and stocks of corporations, free from taxation other than that paid on the wealth itself. Members of such organizations could get a higher income on their investments than a savings bank could pay, and with greater security than if each attempted to save and invest by himself.[15] Savings institutions are necessarily also lending institutions. In this chapter they have been looked at mainly from the saver's (the lender's) standpoint, though their service to the borrower is of coördinate importance. In the case of building and loan associations this feature is most apparent. Later, the problem of the agricultural borrower will receive further consideration. [Footnote 1: See Vol. I, chs. 9 and 10.] [Footnote 2: See Vol. I, pp. 285-290 for the analysis of saving from the individual standpoint; and pp. 482-499 for its relation to general economic conditions.] [Footnote 3: See Vol. I, p. 484.] [Footnote 4: See above, ch. 9, sec. 7.] [Footnote 5: E.g., Babson Statistical Organization, Brookmire Economic Service, Moody Manual Co., Moody Corporation Service.] [Footnote 6: See Vol. I, p. 318.] [Footnote 7: Report of the Comptroller of the Currency. Not all of these are mutual. Statistics, moreover, include in some cases (e.g., California) the savings deposits of commercial banks but not the number of such banks, and in other cases (Michigan) some banks that do chiefly a commercial business. The line of demarcation between savings banks and savings departments of commercial banks cannot be sharply drawn. The Comptroller of the Currency reported in 1914 in a different form the amount of savings deposits and of time certificates of deposits in _all_ kinds of banks as the enormous sum of $8,675,000,000.] [Footnote 8: In the last twenty-three years, on the average, seven savings banks a year have failed, the annual excess of liabilities over assets being about $200,000, or about $30,000 for each failing bank. The total loss has been about 1/5 of 1 per cent of total deposits.] [Footnote 9: The Federal Reserve Act, by making it possible for loans to be had at any time (through member banks) on good security, should reduce the danger of runs on savings banks.] [Footnote 10: The author saw in operation a new machine of this kind which had been installed in a German public school as early as 1910.] [Footnote 11: See Vol. I, pp. 290, 297-298, 484, and 486.] [Footnote 12: The figures here given and the description of methods apply to the "local" building and loan associations. The success of this kind led to the organization of other associations which took the name "National" building and loan associations, to carry on a business in a larger field. The number of these has always been comparatively small, and their operation is less simple, democratic, and economical than the local associations. They have borne more of the nature of ordinary profit-making enterprises. They should not be confused with the local associations.] [Footnote 13: On these economies, see Vol. I, p. 298.] [Footnote 14: See ch. 17, sec. 4.] [Footnote 15: Since this was written the Federal Rural Credits Act has been passed, embodying the main idea here described.] CHAPTER 12 PRINCIPLES OF INSURANCE § 1. Chance, unavoidable and average. § 2. Uneconomic character of gambling. § 3. Borderland of gambling. § 4. Insurance: definition and kinds. § 5. Insurance viewed as a wager. § 6. Insurance as mutual protection. § 7. Conditions of sound insurance. § 8. Purpose of life insurance. § 9. Assessment plan. § 10. The reserve plan. § 11. The mortality table. § 12. The single premium for any term. § 13. Level annual premiums and reserves. § 14. Different features of policies. § 15. Insurance assets and investments as savings. § 16. Excessive costs of insurance operation. § 1. #Chance, unavoidable and average.# Every action and every movement in life has in it some element of chance. There are what may be called natural chances, arising from the uncertainties of the seasons, or from rainfall, heat, hail, storm, flood, lightning, or land-slides. Such chances must be taken both by the small enterpriser and by the large. In earlier conditions of society natural chance dominated industry, and it still remains and must always remain important. There is the chance of unexpected political events, such as war, riot, and legislation on money, tariffs, credit, and business relations. These things are caused, it is true, by the action of men, but it is a collective action out of the control of the individual. There is the chance of human carelessness causing fire, explosions, and wrecks on misplaced switches. There is the chance of physical or mental collapse, as the sudden insanity or the sudden death of one performing responsible duties. There is the chance of sickness that often wrecks the plans and the fortunes of a whole family. There is the chance of economic alterations in methods of production and of transportation, in fashions and demand in this direction or for those materials. Some of these chances are more connected with money-lending, others with manufacturing, some with agriculture, others with commerce; but all are present in some degree in every industry. Some events are unique in nature and seem unlikely ever to occur again; others are of a kind occurring so irregularly that no reasonable prediction can be made as to the time and frequency of their occurrences. Still others occur frequently and to many different persons; but no individual can tell when and how they will occur to him. A general average of chances in different lines of business causes some to be called safe, others extra-hazardous. Chance has its favorable as well as its unfavorable aspects. Chances are averaged and added algebraically to the profit or loss in an industry, for an extra-hazardous enterprise must in general afford a higher average of profit in order to induce men to engage in it. It is folly to take a risk without ascertaining its degree so far as general experience enables one to choose. But inasmuch and in so far as the gains and losses fall unequally upon different individuals, income depends upon chance. § 2. #Uneconomic character of gambling.# This prevalence of chance sometimes tempts men to say that business is "a gamble." But a distinction in principle must be made between gambling and legitimate risk-taking. The chances enumerated above are not sought, but avoided as far as possible; yet they must be borne by some one if productive enterprise is to continue, and the burden must somehow be distributed throughout the community. Gambling is, however, a kind of risk-taking which has a very different economic and moral quality. Gambling creates the hazard, making the gain or loss of income depend on an event that is not a necessary part of productive enterprise. Typical gambling is the transfer of wealth on the outcome of events absolutely unpredictable, so far as the two gamblers are concerned. Examples are the shaking of unloaded dice or the honest dealing of a pack of cards, and the betting on prices in so-called "bucket-shops" by persons having no connection with the market of real things, and seeking to get something for nothing as a result of mere chance. Cheating is not a necessary mark of gambling, altho the cruder forms of dishonesty, such as the loading of dice or the collusion of horse-owners or of horse-jockeys to deceive the betting public, are so common that they seem often to be an essential feature. Gamblers recognize fair as opposed to unfair methods. Fair gambling is a kind of minor morality within the immoral field of gambling, like the honor found among thieves. The chance-taking in gambling has no useful purpose or result outside itself. Betting and gambling do not produce wealth, but merely shift the ownership of existing wealth. The gamblers constitute themselves a little fictitious economic circle, and they transfer gains and losses on the turn of events that have no practical objective result within their circle except to determine the direction of the transfer. Even when fairest, gambling must, in its average results, be uneconomic. In any economic trade each trader gains by getting goods that are, on the marginal principle, to him more valuable than the other kinds of goods he gives up.[1] But in gambling the winner gets all, the loser gets nothing. If two men of like incomes gamble the additional desires that the winner is able to gratify are (by the principle of decreasing gratification) less in amount than the desires which the loser must forego. As a result the loser is often depressed and seriously injured by the loss of his income, the winner makes reckless and extravagant use of his winnings. Easy come, easy go, is the rule of gamblers. Moreover, gambling reduces the amount of wealth by relaxing the motives of economic activity, diverting energy from productive enterprise, tempting men into dishonesty to offset their losses, and leading them into speculation and embezzlement. § 3. #Borderland of gambling.# Ranging between the extremes of unavoidable risk-taking and of gambling are a number of cases of a mixed nature. In nearly all wagers, judgment in some degree influences the choice of sides. One man bets on a horse whose pedigree and performances he knows thoroly; another judges by the horse's appearance as it comes upon the track. The professional bookmakers have the latest possible and most exact information on which to base their bids. In the bets made on one's own prowess, as on speed in running, the chance-taking is still on the uneconomic side of the borderland, certainly if the running is for the sake of the wager, not for pleasure or for a useful purpose. A premium won by a runner for speed in delivering a message of economic importance presents an essential contrast to the winnings in a wager. Finally, the very borderland of difficulty is reached in the purchase and sale of goods in the market with a view of profiting by chance changes in price. The purchasing and holding of land, lumber, grain, cattle, and other tangible and useful things, that need to be stored, held for buyers, or taken to market, must be judged liberally. The quality of gambling depends somewhat on the motive as well as on the ability of the trader. The enterpriser dealing with real wealth, and fitted to take the risks both because of his resources and of his exceptional knowledge, needs the motive of gain in such cases, and in a sense can be said to earn socially what he gets. The motive of the uninformed must be a blind trust in luck, and a hope to gain from a rise in prices which they are quite unable to foresee or to explain. § 4. #Insurance: definition and kinds.# The large element of luck in industry due to unavoidable chances has something of the same evil character as gambling. It brings unearned prizes to some and to others unmerited losses. It must therefore be a benefit to the community, if this element of unavoidable chance cannot be reduced as a whole, at least to regularize it and make it exactly calculable for any individual. In this way each may be encouraged by the more certain prospect of receiving a reward proportionate to his efforts and abilities. This desirable condition has in many respects been accomplished by means of insurance. _Insurance_ is the act of providing a guarantee of indemnity against a financial loss that will result if an event of a specified kind occurs. The person seeking some surety against the possible loss is the _insured_; the person contracting to indemnify against the loss is the _insurer_; the written contract of insurance is the _policy_; and the price paid by the insured in fulfillment of his part of the contract is the _premium_; the amount paid when a loss has been incurred is the _indemnity_; and the person to whom the indemnity is paid is the _beneficiary_ (who may or may not be the insured). The insurance with which we are here concerned is that which gives financial indemnity. This is given for loss of expected net income, when by chance either receipts are less or costs are more than average. The two main classes as regards kinds of loss are property insurance and personal insurance. _Property insurance_ is that which indemnifies for loss of one's possession in specified ways, such as by fire, by the elements at sea (marine), by hail, lightning, or cyclone, by death (of valuable animals), by robbery, and by breakage (of window glass). _Personal insurance_ is that which indemnifies the beneficiary for loss of income as the result of various happenings to persons, the chief being death, accident, sickness, invalidity, old age, and unemployment. The principle of insurance is being constantly extended to new subjects[2] and it is capable of further development in a variety of directions. § 5. #Insurance viewed as a wager.# Insurance, without question a highly useful thing, appears, paradoxically, to be in its outer form a bet. The large merchant with many vessels used in many kinds of business had in the days before marine insurance an advantage in distributing his losses over a number of voyages. Antonio, the wealthy merchant, is made thus to express his security: "My ventures are not in one bottom trusted Nor to one place; nor is my whole estate Upon the fortune of the present year. Therefore my merchandise makes me not sad." In its early form marine insurance was the attempt of smaller ship-owners to distribute their losses (as could the wealthy merchant) over a number of undertakings, lucky and unlucky. It became customary for a ship-owner to bet with a wealthy man that the ship would not return. If it did come back, the owner could afford to pay the bet; if it did not, he won his bet and thus recovered a part of his loss. Gradually there came about a specialization of risk-taking by the men most able to bear it. They could tell by experience about what was the degree of uncertainty, and could lay their wagers accordingly. When several insurers were in the same business, competition forced them to insure the vessel and cargo of the ordinary trader for something near the percentage of risk involved. The insurance thus tended to become a mutual protection to the ship-owners; what had to be paid in premiums to cover risk came to be counted as part of the cost of carrying on that business. Every legitimate form of insurance exhibits substantially the same characteristics; it reduces loss at the margin where it is felt most keenly. The difference between insurance and gambling, thus, lies primarily in the purpose of insurance, which is not to increase artificially the risk that any individual runs, but to neutralize or offset an already existing chance. The insurance bet is what is called a "hedge." The difference lies further in the collective method of insurance, which combines the chances scattered among a number of persons. Insurance does not increase the total of risks and of losses, but merely combines, averages, and distributes them equally among all the insured. This eliminates the chance element to the individual by converting it into a regular cost. § 6. #Insurance as mutual protection.# Modern insurance is conducted either by enterprisers for profit, or by mutual companies; but in any case in large measure the losses in insurance are mutually shared, as the premiums (plus interest earned) equal the total losses plus operating expenses and profit, if any is made. Each insured gets a contract of indemnity for the payment of a sum that will help cover the losses of others. Such an exchange is mutually beneficial. The premium comes from marginal income; the loss if it occurs would fall upon the parts of income having higher value to the insured. The less urgent needs of the present are sacrificed in order to protect the income that gratifies the more urgent needs of the future. In insurance each party gives a smaller value for a greater; each makes a gain. The greater security in business stimulates effort. This effect is quite the opposite of that of gambling. § 7. #Conditions of sound insurance.# To be economically sound, insurance must have to do with real productive agents, and with a group of occurrences which, as a whole, are approximately ascertainable in advance--however irregularly they may fall upon individuals. The beneficiary must have an _incurable interest_ in the property or person insured; that is, the beneficiary must actually suffer a loss by the occurrence insured against. Finally, the amount of the indemnity must not be greater than the loss incurred. Some of the greatest difficulties in insurance arise from the absence of these essential conditions. When there is no insurable interest or when the indemnity is greater than the loss that may be incurred, the beneficiary may and sometimes does find it to his interest to bring about the socially injurious event insured against. He artificially increases the loss against which insurance was taken. When the insured sets fire to his own buildings, he makes an illegitimate use of insurance. Constant efforts are made by insurance companies to guard against these "moral risks," the least calculable of any. Merchants whose stocks have been mysteriously burned two or three times find difficulty in getting further insurance. Formerly insurance was not paid in case of death by suicide; but now usually no such limitation is contained in a policy after a period of one or more years. As men rarely plan suicide years in advance, death by one's own hand some years after taking life insurance is regarded as coming under the ordinary rules of chance. Yet it is to be feared that this liberal policy serves as a temptation at times to crime and to self-destruction. § 8. #Purpose of life insurance.# Property insurance is mainly an aspect of enterpriser's cost, whereas personal insurance is more closely connected with the object of saving.[3] We shall in the rest of this chapter limit the discussion to the one most important form of personal insurance, that called life insurance (sometimes called survivors' insurance). Life insurance is that form of insurance in which partial indemnity is provided for survivors against the financial loss incurred by the death of the insured. Usually the insured is the breadwinner of the family and the beneficiary is a member of his family, but in an increasing number of cases the beneficiary is the surviving business partner, a creditor, or a business corporation with an insurable interest in the life of one of its employees. Life insurance has been much used by persons mainly dependent on labor incomes[4] rather than on incomes from capital, by those receiving salaries, professional fees, and by active business men. It has of late been extended rapidly, as "industrial insurance" to wage earners, in policies never exceeding $1000, but averaging very much less, and often being for no more than enough to pay funeral expenses. The premiums on such policies are usually collected weekly and by agents making personal visits. The cost to the insured is, therefore, necessarily very high in proportion to the amount of insurance. § 9. #Assessment plan.# Life insurance plans may be distinguished, with reference to the time and method of collecting the premiums, as assessment and reserve insurance. In the simple form of assessment insurance originally the losses were paid by contributions taken after the losses occurred, each member paying an equal share without regard to age. In a slightly improved plan the assessments are made at the beginning of the year, based upon the expected mortality for the year. The sum just sufficient for this purpose (omitting expenses) is called the _natural premium_. The cost of such insurance is closely related to the average age of the members. The rates are very low in a new organization with a membership of young men; but each year the average age, and therefore the mortality of the membership, rises and the annual assessments must be increased. By constant additions of young members, this rise of cost may be retarded. But when these members grow older, a still larger addition of young members is required to keep down the average, and the mathematically inevitable result is an increasing rate of assessment. This keeps young men from entering, and finally results in failure or in some form of "reorganization" that drives out the older members. The assessment plan carries with it the seeds of its own decay. To meet these difficulties in part, various modifications of the flat-rate assessment plan are employed, such as classification by age at entry, so that each member pays a flat-rate according to age at entry; or large initiation fees at entry which form a temporary "reserve" to offset increasing mortality in late years. Finally, the policies may be issued on the natural premium plan, by which the members of each age class pay exactly what the insurance costs for the year. Under this plan the company will remain solvent, but with this and all the other expedients the surviving members are forced to drop the insurance in later years. Assessment insurance is sold by business companies organized for profit, by fraternal orders, and by various types of mutual organizations. The business companies have had a dismal history of hardship to surviving members and of eventual failure. They are disappearing under the influence of hostile legislation resulting from a better popular knowledge of insurance principles. The fraternal orders combine insurance with other objects of a benevolent and social character. With good management, a favorable death rate, and very low expenses, some of them have provided protection at very low rates for many years. Others have failed with disappointment and disaster to the older members. Still others are struggling with difficulties that presage dissolution. Many now have some form of reserve accumulations, and some have so improved their methods that they closely resemble reserve companies. The assets of all the assessment companies are now $1.37 per $100 of insurance in force, while the legal reserve companies have $22.66. The assessment companies now get 10 per cent of their total incomes from their funded investments, as against 24 per cent for the old-line companies. Even with the favorable conditions under which the fraternal orders conduct their insurance business they are doomed to failure unless they adopt rates and policies based upon adequate reserve accumulations. Many thousands of present members are paying for insurance at rates which will not suffice to meet the future losses. The assessment plan fails to eliminate the one great risk, that of leaving the survivors without insurance in advancing years. § 10. # The reserve plan.# The reserve plan, if honestly administered, gives complete protection against the difficulties just indicated. The essential purpose of the reserve plan is to collect during the earlier years of the insurance policy when the mortality is less, a sum larger than is needed to meet the current losses. This sum, the reserve, is kept invested and accumulating an income, sufficient to offset the increase in losses as years advance. In reserve insurance, therefore, the premium never increases from year to year, altho it may be so arranged as to diminish or to cease entirely sometime within the term for which the insurance continues. The premium must always be fixed in advance. The calculations for determining the premiums on different kinds of insurance policies are many and complex, but all conform to a few general principles. The three factors assumed are an average mortality table, a rate of interest (or yield on investments), and an expense rate in proportion to the premiums or outstanding insurance. Insurance on the reserve plan is often called "scientific insurance" because, upon the basis of these assumptions resulting from experience, it makes exact mathematical calculations of the premiums and reserves needed for insurance of any particular kind in respect to age of insured, number of payments, method of paying the beneficiary, and any other conditions. The premium thus fixed is, however, only a maximum, and usually is reduced as the result of conditions more favorable than those assumed. § 11. #The mortality table.# When large numbers of men are taken as a group, a certain proportion of those at each age may be expected to die. A mortality table starts with a group of persons, as 100,000, at a given age, as 10 years, and shows the number who die and the number who survive at each year of age until all are dead. The table most widely used in the United States is the American Experience Table of Mortality, constructed by Sheppard Homans in 1868. The figures of this table, at different years, are given below: Age Number Living Deaths each year Death rate per 1,000 10 100,000 749 7.49 20 92,637 723 7.80 30 84,441 720 8.43 35 81,822 732 8.95 40 78,106 765 9.79 50 69,804 962 13.78 60 57,917 1,546 26.69 70 38,569 2,391 61.99 80 14,474 2,091 144.47 90 847 385 454.54 95 3 3 1,000.00 The actual number of deaths of any group of insured will not correspond exactly with the figures of any mortality table. But this is not an essential defect of a table so long as the figures of the table are approximately correct and are at least as great in the earlier years as the actual mortality. For any excess of premium thus collected but increases the safety of the insurance and reduces later payments. In fact the mortality in nearly all companies in the United States is much below the figures of the American Experience Table, partly because of the influence of medical selection on the recently insured and partly because of the decided improvement in longevity since the table was constructed. § 12. #The single premium for any term.# It is evident that the natural assessment premium payable at the beginning of the year for $1000 of insurance for that year is expressed by the death rate, e.g., at age 35, the payment of $8.95 by each of the 81,822 living at the beginning of the year will provide the $732,000 needed to pay the losses.[5] In the same manner would be determined the natural assessment premium for each year of insurance. Now, when it is possible to invest the premiums so as to yield a minimum rate of income it is a simple matter to determine the amount of a single premium, at any age, that is adequate to pay for insurance covering any selected number of years (term insurance) up to the entire period of each insured person's life (full life). It is necessary only to apply the formula of present worth and that of compound interest on investments.[6] Thus the expected losses of any year according to the table of mortality, divided by 1 + rate of yield on investments raised to the power of years distant, equals the present worth of insuring the entire group for that year. The sum of the discounted cost of insurance for all the years of the term divided by the number living at the beginning of the period, gives the single premium for each of the insured. Let P be the present worth of all the policies for a group of the same age, p the present worth of one policy, X the total insured at the beginning of the period, f the natural assessment premium this year, or the natural premium required for any year. Then f f1 f2 fn P = __________ + _________ + ________ + _________ (l + r) (l + r)^2 (l + r)^3 (l + r)^n P p = _________ X The payment in advance of the single premium for any selected period provides a reserve fund sufficient, on the assumptions made, to carry all the insurance without further payments. Each year there is added to the fund the income earned on investments, and there is subtracted the amount of the losses for the year, until the death of the last member of the insured group. If the deaths in the earlier years are fewer than were expected in the mortality table, this will be offset eventually by more deaths at the advanced years; but in the meantime a reserve larger than was expected is yielding income, thus providing a larger sum than is needed to pay all the policies at maturity. This surplus might be distributed as so-called "dividends" from time to time to those surviving, or be added pro-rata, at intervals, to the amount of the policies as accumulated dividends. § 13. #Level annual premiums and reserves.# It is a matter of no very abstruse mathematics (in principle) to find the equivalent of this single premium in any one of many other forms of premium payment. The processes are mainly but variations of present worth and compound interest calculations. Such calculations, however, lead into many complexities of practical detail difficult to explain in brief compass, and are the special task of the actuary (the mathematical expert dealing with such problems in the insurance business). The most useful actuarial equivalent of the single premium is the level annual premium for any period (term or life). Almost all policies now written have the level annual premium as a feature. The amount of the level annual premiums at first is greater than the losses; this causes for a time the steady accumulation of a reserve which yields income. Then, as the losses grow, they overtake and finally surpass the amount of the annual premiums. Therefore, the total reserve for any group of insured increases year by year to a maximum and then declines until it reaches zero with the payment of the last claim. The individual reserve for each policy not yet matured increases steadily the longer it is in force. The total reserve is essential to the solvency of the company and the payment of all the policies as they fall due. The companies which issue policies on the level premium plan or reserve plan are known as "old line" companies, or as "legal reserve" companies, because the state laws require every company of this type to maintain the reserves calculated on the basis of a certain rate of yield. The growth of the legal reserve companies in recent times constitutes one of the financial marvels of the age. § 14. #Different features of policies.# The premiums thus far discussed are "net premiums" estimated as just sufficient to meet the actual payments required by the contracts in the policies. To provide for the expenses of management an addition is made to the net premium called the "loading." The entire premium is called the "gross premium." Reserve insurance is still carried on by a few stock companies, but of late some stock companies have been transformed into mutual companies, which are the prevailing type. The mutual company legally belongs to the policyholders. The gross premiums in reserve insurance are, for the purpose of safety, fixed at a figure larger than the expected cost of the insurance, and normally the earnings from interest are higher, the mortality is lower, and expenses are less than those on which the calculation of rates is based. From the excess of income resulting, the company sets aside a surplus and then divides the rest among the policyholders. These returns, virtually but the refund of excess premiums, are called "dividends" (a somewhat misleading term, not to be confused with dividends on corporate stock). The policies that receive dividends are called "participating" and are said to participate in the earnings. Formerly the majority of policies paid "deferred" dividends after 5, 10, or 20 years, according to various tontine and semi-tontine plans, the survivors to these periods receiving their dividends plus those of the other policyholders who had died or had withdrawn from the company. This form of payment having been found objectionable, it was made illegal in New York and other states, and in most cases dividends are now paid annually. The stock company, organized for profit, frequently charges lower premiums for "non-participating" policies, and then retains such profits as may result from keeping expenses below receipts. The most popular policies are term policies (usually for 5, 10, 15, or 20 years); ordinary life policies with annual premiums; limited payment life policies (the policy payable at death, with premiums fully paid up after 10, 15, or 20 years); and endowment policies (the face of the policy payable after 10, 15, or 20 years if the insured is still living). An endowment policy must be understood to be a regular term policy of insurance for the specified number of years, plus a plan of regular annual savings, which at compound interest, accumulate to the face of the policy. Many persons are attracted to endowment insurance by the oft expressed thought that "you don't have to die to beat it." But this is a mistaken thought. For the premium in endowment insurance is much higher than that for life insurance alone during the same period, so that the endowment is merely a pretty convenient but somewhat costly plan of saving, hitched on to an insurance policy, with which "actuarially," it has no essential connection. In "scientific" insurance the insured pays its full actuarial cost for each additional feature of the policy that he buys. The various policies issued by a company are approximately equivalent actuarially, on the basis of the assumptions made, but they are of very different degrees of desirability, in view of the circumstances of the insuring individual. The choice of policies deserves a more careful investigation than it usually received. Moreover, carelessness and ignorance in the choice of a company is responsible for widespread loss and suffering. Policies differ in respect to the mode of payment. The payment usually takes the form of a lump sum payment at death or at the maturity of the endowment. In recent times there has been a growing use of optional forms of payment which give to the beneficiary annual or monthly installments for a definite number of years or for life. § 14. #Insurance assets and investments as savings.# The discussion of savings institutions in the last chapter left unmentioned insurance, which probably is destined to be the most important of all. The assets of life insurance companies in the United States have already attained the enormous sum of $5,000,000,000, a sum equal to the reported savings bank deposits. In the last twenty years life insurance assets have more than doubled in each decade, and are now increasing by about a quarter of a billion dollars every year.[7] These great funds, which in equity nearly all belong to the policyholders, form already approximately one thirtieth of all the private capital of the country. They are invested in many ways, in real estate, in loans secured by mortgages on real estate, in bonds--municipal, railroad, and industrial. The problem of wise legislation for these organizations, of their competent and honest management, and of their relation to the social, business, and political life of the nation, is certain to be of ever-increasing importance. We are hardly more than emerging from the experimental stage of life insurance, hardly more than at the beginning of its development. The premium in personal insurance (life, accident, sickness, invalidity, old age pensions) is in almost all cases paid out of some current income. The premium paid is just so much subtracted from the amount available for present direct use and applied to the purchase of future incomes for one's self or family. The insurance method differs from the method of depositing savings by its contingent nature, the resulting income of any individual being possibly much greater than the amounts actually saved (e.g., when the insured dies or is injured soon after taking insurance), and possibly less or nothing at all. A very desirable kind of insurance which is yet little developed is that for a term ending with the usual retirement age (say 65 years) combined with an old-age pension for life thereafter. It is probable that abstinence will more and more express itself not in accumulating large capital sums to provide for one's old age or for survivors, but in providing insurance for survivors, and invalidity and old-age pensions for the insured and others, payable as terminable annuities. In any case the results to be expected in the changing forms and magnitude of private fortunes are certain to be great. § 15. #Excessive costs of insurance operation.# So beneficent is insurance that the enormous cost of transacting the business under present methods is much to be regretted. A very large part of the premiums paid by the insured is retained by the companies.[8] In the case of reserve life insurance a considerable part of what is not returned is, however, set aside as reserve virtually held in trust for the policyholders. In the case of the other kinds of insurance, nearly all of the amount not returned is either cost of operation or profits, tho it must be recognized that a part of the cost of some kinds of insurance is for real services, such as inspection and fire prevention. It is remarkable that the percentage returned by the life insurance companies, accumulating, as they do, large reserves in trust for the policyholders, is greater than it is for the other kinds of companies (fire, marine, casualty, surety, liability, accident, and health insurance). It is a striking evidence of the importance of the marginal principle[9] that insurance at such a cost should still be desired by men. The use of insurance would be much wider and its benefits greater if this "tare and tret" of doing the business could be reduced. It seems a reasonable hope, now that the experimental stages are passed, that this may be done. In the case of all kinds of insurance as yet a large expense for agents has been necessary to educate men to see the value of insurance and to purchase it, as well as for many other competitive expenses. It has been found that much of this expense can be saved by insurance in groups (for all employees in an establishment), by compulsory insurance (as of all working men), and by central state administration serving to regularize and unify the organizations. This important question will be further considered in connection with "social insurance" as a measure to benefit the working classes. [Footnote 1: See Vol. 1, ch. 5, sec. 7.] [Footnote 2: The Jeffries-Johnson prize-fight was insured, against rain, for $30,000. Frequently, race-horses, the fingers of pianists, the lives of ball-players, and the throats of singers, are now insured. Summer hotels in England regularly insure for large sums against more than so many days of rain per season.] [Footnote 3: On the former, see Vol. I, pp. 365 and 374; and on the latter, below, sec. 14.] [Footnote 4: See Vol. I, labor-incomes, in Index.] [Footnote 5: There is an appearance of a slight discrepancy due to the omission of fractions of cents. If premiums are collected at the beginning of the year and losses are paid at the end of the year, and if interest can be earned meantime at the rate of 3-1/2 per cent, the natural premium for a one year term policy is about $8.64, that being the present worth of $8.95 due a year hence, interest being 3-1/2 per cent. In these calculations there is no allowance for expenses, the necessary "loading," on which see below, sec. 14.] [Footnote 6: See Vol. I, p. 279.] [Footnote 7: The following are the chief statistical facts regarding the life insurance business in the United States, Jan. 1, 1914, showing separately legal reserve and assessment companies, and the total. ------------------------------------------------------------------ | Number of | Policies | Insurance | Companies | in force | in force | | | Legal reserve ..| 260 | 38,206,000 | $20,256,000,000 Assessment .....| 605 | 8,789,000 | 10,023,000,000 Total ..........| 865 | 46,995,000 | 30,587,000,000 ----------------------------------------------------------------- | Premium | Total | Per cent income | income | income | from premiums | | | Legal reserve ..| $715,000,000 | $946,000,000 | 75.6 Assessment .....| 138,000,000 | 153,000,000 | 90.2 Total ..........| 853,000,000 |1,099,000,000 | 77.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------- | Payments to| Assets | Assets for each | policyholders| | 100 insurance | | | in force | | | Legal reserve | $470,000,000 |$4,659,000,000 | $22.66 Assessment .... | 106,000,000 | 195,000,000 | 1.37 Total ....... | 576,000,000 | 4,854,000,000 | 15.87 ] [Footnote 8: In 1913 the total premiums collected by all kinds of insurance companies reported (Statistical Abstract of the U.S., 1914, pp. 549-557) were about $1,512,000,000, and the amount returned to policy holders the same year was $918,000,000, or about 61 per cent of all premiums, the amount not returned ($584,000,000) being 39 per cent. Premiums received Returned to policyholders Amount Percent Life insurance reserve companies ..$715,000,000 $470,000,000 67 assessment companies 138,000,000 106,000,000 76 Other kinds ......... 659,000,000 342,000,000 52 ------------- ----------- -- Total ........... $1,512,000,000 $918,000,000 61 ] [Footnote 9: See above, secs. 2 and 5.] PART IV TARIFF AND TAXATION CHAPTER 13 INTERNATIONAL TRADE § 1. Political and trade boundaries. § 2. Benefits of international trade. § 3. Choice of the more advantageous occupations. § 4. Persistence of differences between nations. § 5. Doctrine of comparative advantages. § 6. Equation of international exchange. §7. Balance of merchandise movements. § 8. Cancellation of foreign indebtedness. § 9. Par of exchange. § 10. International monetary balance and price-levels. § 1. #Political and trade boundaries.# By international trade is meant, in general, trade between persons resident in different countries; comparatively rare is the case in which one of the two parties to a trade is a whole nation acting through its government as a unit (e.g., in the purchase of munitions of war in neutral countries). Outside of a communistic group such as the family, trade is a necessary accompaniment of division of labor. As territorial division of labor began between neighboring tribes,[1] international trade was the earliest kind of regular interchange of goods. Indeed the very word "market" meant originally the boundary between tribes. Thus, from primitive times when wandering savages gave bits of flint or copper in return for salt or fish, individuals have sought to adjust their goods to their desires through trade with men of other political groups. With the progress of the world in the means of communication and transportation, international trade has widened in extent and grown in volume. Economic relations never have been coextensive with political relations. The economic groupings of men connected by a network of trades never have and never will correspond very nearly with political groupings of men bound together by common citizenship in particular states. Indeed it is not uncommon for many of the residents in two adjoining states to trade far more with each other than they do with their own fellow citizens. Lawmakers and rulers from the beginnings of formal governments have constantly tried to hinder this kind of trade. They have done this chiefly because of their belief that they could strengthen their states in political and economic ways, and could favor some of their citizens, by confining economic relations within political boundaries--if not exclusively, more closely than when trade was left to take its natural course, guided by individual motives. The regulation of international trade, therefore, has always constituted an economic problem of great importance in the field of political action. § 2. #Benefits of international trade#. Now, bearing in mind that international trade is carried on by individual traders in any two countries, we may ask what motive impels men to trade across the political boundaries of a state. The simple answer is that each trader has something to give and desires to get something in return. Each is seeking to get something that has to him a greater value than the thing he gives, and believes he can do this in trade with a foreigner better than by trading at home. In any trade, both parties gain, or think they are gaining.[2] In international trade there is the same chance for mistake as in domestic trade, but no more. In a single transaction in either domestic or foreign trade one party may be cheated, but the continuance of trade relations is dependent upon continued benefits. The once generally accepted maxim that the gain of one in trade is the loss of another is now generally rejected, but often still it is assumed to be true of international trade. The starting point for the consideration of this subject is in this proposition: Foreign trade is carried on by individuals, for individual gain, with the same motives and for the same benefits as are found in other trade. The advantages of international trade are indeed but those of division of labor in general, in the particular case where it happens to cross political boundaries. The great territorial divisions of industry are determined first and mainly by natural differences of climate, soil, and material resources. Thus trade arises easily between North and South, between warm and frigid climates, between new countries and old, between regions sparsely and regions densely populated.[3] Territorial divisions of industry are determined secondly by social and economic differences such as those with respect to accumulation of wealth, amount of loanable capital, invention, organization and intelligence of the workers, and the grade of civilization. Foreign trade normally imparts increased efficiency to the productive forces of each country. In most cases it is apparent that labor is more effective and gets a larger product when it is applied in those ways for which the country is best fitted and for which it offers the best and most bountiful materials; and that, further, when special branches of industry have developed at one place, they make possible the advantages of large production and of high specialization. Certain erroneous explanations of the advantages of foreign trade may be dismissed with brief mention. It is said to give vent for surplus production and to give a wider market to what would otherwise go to waste. This involves the same fallacy as the "lump of labor notion," the destruction of machinery, and the praise of waste and luxury.[4] If it were true that sale to backward nations were now necessary to give an outlet for products which would otherwise rot in the warehouses, a time would come at length when the world would have an enormous surplus unless neighboring planets could be successively annexed. Again it is said that the great purpose of foreign trade is to keep exports in excess of imports so that the money of the country may constantly increase in amount. The ideal of such theorists is an impossible condition where the country would constantly sell and never buy.[5] In the narrow commercial view of the subject the sole object of foreign trade is to afford a profit to the merchants, regardless of the welfare of the mass of the citizens. § 3. #Choice of the more advantageous occupations#. Let us consider the cases of two countries somewhat differently situated, such as an old country like England and a newer country such as was the United States in the nineteenth century. Now the relative advantages of various industries in two such countries are very unlike. The newer country excels in its broad area, its abundant rich lands, its bountiful natural resources of forests and mines. These are the superior opportunities which give the economic motives for settlement and for continued immigration from the other lands. Most of the newcomers find it to their advantage to develop the peculiar opportunities of the new land, rather than to go on producing the same things in the same way as they did in the old country.[6] Thus they get a larger quantity of products per day's labor, and are able to gain by trading a part of these for the products of the older country. Thus the characteristic industries of the two countries must differ. Without any government supervision, therefore, but simply through the choice of enterprises, each seeking the best investment of capital for himself, industries are developed in which each country is either most markedly superior, or least inferior, to its neighbors. If either laborers or capitalists in the new country were to turn to the less-favored industries they would be forced to accept a smaller reward than they can earn in the more favored. § 4. #Persistence of difference between nations#. If both men and wealth interchanged between industries and between countries with perfect readiness and without any outlay whatever for transportation, these differences would soon disappear, and perfect equilibrium of advantage would everywhere result. In every country, in every occupation, labor and wealth of given quality and amount would receive the same reward. But the interchange of labor and of products between countries is never without friction. The laborers, enterprisers, and investors in a naturally rich country are thus in a position of more or less enduring advantage relative to those of older and poorer countries. Differences of the same nature appear as between different parts of the same country, as between the Northern and the Southern states of the American union, between the Eastern and the Western states, and even between neighboring countries of the same state. The differences between two countries, however, are likely to be more marked, the circulation of factors being so active within a country that it is allowable to speak broadly of prevailing national rates of wages and of interest. Altho, as Adam Smith said, "a man is of all sorts of luggage the most difficult to be transported," the higher wages in a new country attract constantly from the older lands a portion of their laborers. The higher rate of interest in new countries constantly attracts investments from abroad; yet, despite these forces working toward equalization, the inequality may remain and, through the working of other influences, may even increase in the course of years. § 5. #Doctrine of comparative advantages.# It may be that two countries both possess the necessary technical conditions for making both articles that are to be traded for each other. It may even be that the people in one country would be able to make not only one of the two objects of trade, but both of them, more easily and with less sacrifice and effort than the people in the other. If, for example, American labor can produce two bushels of wheat in a day and English labor but one bushel a day; and American labor can produce just as much iron in a day as English labor--or more--the question always arises: Is it not foolish and wasteful not to produce both the wheat and the iron? Now, exactly the same case is presented in almost every simple neighborhood trade. The proprietor may be able to keep his books better than does the bookkeeper whom he employs. The merchant may be able to sweep out the store better than the cheap boy does it. The carpenter may be able to raise better vegetables than can the gardener from whom he purchases. Yet the merchant does not turn to sweeping and the carpenter to raising vegetables, because if they did they would have to quit or limit by so much their present better-paying work, and would lose far more than they would gain. So whenever the people in one country have a greater advantage in one article than in another, relative to another country, the foreigners, like the low-paid man, will be willing to exchange at a ratio that will make it profitable to specialize in the product wherein the greater superiority lies.[7] But this is always hard doctrine for the popular mind, and particularly for the commercial mind endeavoring to carry on a business that can not be made "to pay" in the face of foreign competition. It is easy to believe that a country ought not to import goods unless it is at an _absolute_ disadvantage in their production. It is often declared that as our country can produce any kind of goods "as well" as foreign countries (meaning with as few days' labor), there is a loss on every unit imported. The fundamental principle of trade as applied to such cases shows that not the advantage which one country enjoys over the other as to a single product determines whether it will gain by producing at home, but the comparative advantages enjoyed in the production of the two articles in question. As a simple example, suppose that a day's labor in country A will secure two bushels of wheat (2x) and two hundred pounds of iron (2y), whereas in B a day's labor will secure 1x or 2y. Then A's comparative advantage in producing x becomes a reason for A's not trying to produce y. Trade can take place (aside from transportation outlay) at any ratio between 2x = 2x (A's minimum) and 2x = 4y (B's maximum). Evidently at any rate between these two ratios each party would gain something by the trade, e.g., at 2x = 3y A would get 3 instead of 2y by a day's labor, and B would get 1-1/3x instead of 1x for a day's labor (2x for 1-1/2 day's labor instead of for two days'). If, however, A could produce exactly twice as much of everything as B could, then there could be no motive on either side for trade. But this never happens. § 6. #Equation of international exchange.# Foreign trade of course can take place as barter, and in earlier times, particularly, very commonly did so. But in the existing monetary economy nearly all trades are expressed in terms of monetary prices. Both the prices of all the particular objects of international trade and the general levels of prices in any two trading countries come to be pretty definitely interrelated. Changes in the one country at once compel readjustments in the other. To understand in the most general way how this occurs, a knowledge at least of the elementary principles of foreign exchange is required, and to this we may now turn. Let us begin with the proposition known as the equation of international exchange, which is sometimes given thus: the value of the imports of a country must in the long run equal the value of the exports. But this proposition (especially the words imports and exports) must be understood in a much broader sense than that of the movements of merchandise merely. The proposition might better be expressed: the total credits of a nation (including money actually sent abroad) must just equal its total debits (including money imported). Into the balance of accounts between any two nations enter many items: the cash values of the imports and exports of merchandise; freights, insurance premiums, and commissions; the expenses of citizens while traveling abroad; money brought in or taken out by immigrants; the cost of the governmental foreign services (such as the salaries of consuls and of diplomatic representatives); subsidies and war indemnities received from or paid to foreign nations; the investments of foreign capital; and credit items of many kinds, on both sides of the account. The effect of loans upon the equation differs at different periods according as they are just being made, are continuing, or are being repaid. When foreign capital is first invested in a country, whether it is loaned to the government or to individuals or to corporations, either gold must be remitted to the borrowing country or goods be sent. But later the interest payments and the eventual repayment of the principal of the loan act in the opposite direction. Accruing interest must be offset annually by exports from the debtor country and the repayment of the principal requires that either money or goods be exported equal in value to the original obligations. In popular opinion an excess of exports of merchandise is an index, if not the real cause, of national prosperity; but evidently it is no true index whatever on this point. An excess of exports may at any given moment indicate that the country is rich and is lending abroad, or that it is in debt and is paying interest, or that it is repaying the principal. On the other hand, an excess of imports may indicate either that a country is poor, and is borrowing from abroad, or that it is rich, with many foreign investments, and is receiving the income from them in the form of a regular shipment of goods from the debtors. The following statistics of the foreign commerce (merchandise imports and exports) of the principal countries of the world are given in significant groupings which call for various explanations. Figures are in million dollars ($1,000,000) and are mostly for the year 1908, (Stat. Abst. 1908, p. 769). At the present writing the war has altered all the lines of commerce. COUNTRIES HAVING EXCESS OF IMPORTS OF MERCHANDISE |Excess %|Imports.|Exports.| United Kingdom ..| 57 | 2886 | 1835 | Germany ..........| 20 | 1824 | 1523 | Netherlands ......| 30 | 1130 | 873 | France ...... | 12 | 1089 | 975 | Belgium ..........| 33 | 642 | 484 | Italy ............| 68 | 562 | 334 | Aust.-Hung .......| 7 | 487 | 457 | Switzerland ......| 44 | 287 | 200 | Spain ............| 10 | 168 | 153 | Sweden ...........| 26 | 163 | 129 | Denmark ..........| 16 | 191 | 165 | Norway ...........| 58 | 101 | 64 | Canada ...........| 34 | 298 | 222 | China ............| 43 | 254 | 178 | Turkey ...........| 59 | 135 | 85 | COUNTRIES HAVING EXCESS OF EXPORTS OF MERCHANDISE |Imports.|Exports.|Excess %| United States ....| 1312 | 1638 | 25 | Russia ...........| 436 | 542 | 24 | British Colonies .| 558 | 615 | 5 | British India ....| 418 | 486 | 16 | Australasia ......| 242 | 302 | 25 | Japan ............| 196 | 206 | 5 | Cuba .............| 84 | 116 | 40 | Mexico ...........| 78 | 115 | 42 | San Domingo ......| 5 | 10 | 100 | Argentina ........| 263 | 353 | 34 | Brazil ...........| 172 | 214 | 24 | Chile ............| 98 | 116 | 18 | Uruguay ..........| 35 | 37 | 6 | Bolivia ..........| 21 | 24 | 14 | Venezuela .... | 10 | 15 | 50 | #§ 7. Balance of merchandise movements.# The first group evidently consists of the older, creditor countries which are drawing some of the income of their investments from abroad each year in the form of food and of raw materials of many kinds. The second group includes countries of very diverse conditions, possibly all having some investments abroad; Italy receives large imports in return for the services of many Italians working in foreign countries, and the three Scandinavian countries (especially Norway) carry on a large commerce for other nations which is paid for in these ways. The excess of imports in the third group probably is the result of new investments that were being made in Canada by English and American capitalists, in Turkey especially by Germans, and in China by Americans and Europeans. The countries in the second column are doubtless on the whole debtors, but in varying degrees. The excess exports of some are insufficient even to pay all the current interest, and they are borrowing still more (possibly the British colonies, Japan and several South American countries); others have ceased to borrow and are simply paying interest; whereas the United States at least with its excess of exports was at this time both paying interest and getting out of debt. With the outbreak of the war in 1914 the United States began rapidly buying up its foreign-held securities, and events are fast making it a creditor nation. Its imports must therefore in future more nearly equal if not exceed its exports, the actual outcome being dependent as well on various other items in the balance as on those here considered. § 8. #Cancelation of foreign indebtedness.# In the international business of any two important countries to-day, such as England and America, the number of credit and debit transactions is enormous. If each trader had to attend to the forwarding of the means of payment for his purchases he would, of course, deduct from the amount of his indebtedness the amount due him from his foreign correspondent, and might from time to time "remit" the balance in the form of a shipment of gold. This simple offsetting and cancelation of debits and credits would greatly limit the amount of gold that would have to be shipped. But still, under such conditions, there must be a very large number of shipments of gold by different individuals, and a large proportion of these shipments would be going in opposite directions at the same time. Now a merchant in New York called M may have a balance to pay in London to X and at the same time a merchant in London called Y have a balance to pay in New York to a man called N. If M can buy from N his claim in the form of an order, draft, or bill of exchange, and send it to X, the latter may through his bank collect the sum from Y. In this way a further cancelation of indebtedness would occur. When all persons having either debits or credits to be paid in New York and in London, respectively, are dealing with the banks in these cities, and the banks and special exchange brokers are constantly buying and selling these bills, a market is created for London exchange in New York (and conversely in London), and a much easier and more nearly complete cancelation of indebtedness results. In effect, all the debits and credits between the two countries are merged into one big ledger balance, and the international shipment of gold bullion finally made is just the amount needed to balance the accounts payable at the time. Industrial indebtedness is represented in various forms: bills of lading for goods shipped, drafts made by the creditor on his debtor for goods shipped or property sold, checks or letters of credit for travelers, bonds and notes public and private. These are the objects dealt in by the bankers who are the agents to carry on the work of exchange. The balance of foreign exchanges is of essentially the same nature as the domestic cancelation of indebtedness. It is going on constantly between the two merchants in the same town, between two banks in the same town who represent groups of merchants, between men in neighboring towns, and between distant states like New York and California.[8] The price of exchange to the individual is reduced by the specializing of the business in the hands of a few dealers, permitting the cancelation of indebtedness or offsetting of exchange, and greatly reducing the amount of bullion to be transported in making the payments. The cost to the bank of providing this exchange for its customers varies as conditions change, but in any case is not great, so that in domestic business when any charge is made it is usually at a fixed rate, and is mainly for the service. § 9. #Par of exchange.# Foreign exchange from America to Europe is, however, in two features different from domestic exchange: (a) the cost of shipment of gold is greater; (b) the monetary units of the two countries usually differ in name, weight, and fineness, and sometimes in materials. We may define foreign exchange as the purchase and sale of the right to receive a given kind and weight of metal or its monetary equivalent in current funds at a specified time and place. _Par of exchange_ between two countries using the same metal as a standard is the number of units of the standard coin of the one country that contains the same amount of fine metal as the standard coin of the other country. There is no fixed par of exchange between gold-using and silver-using countries: par of exchange between them fluctuates with changes in the comparative values of the two metals. The _gold shipping points_ for importing or exporting gold are respectively par of exchange plus or minus the cost of moving the actual metal. These points vary with means of transportation and communication. The par of exchange between New York and London being nearly $4.866 and the cost of expressing and insuring a gold pound between New York and London being approximately $.02,[9] the shipping point for the export of gold from New York is $4.886 and for the import of gold to New York is $4.846. At these upper and lower limits, there is a motive for shipping gold as a commodity. When large sales have been made to Europe and credits are accumulating in New York and the importation of gold is imminent or already begun, the claims are bought by bankers in New York at less than par. At such a time one needing to remit a sum to London can buy exchange for less than par, for every such draft remitted reduces London's indebtedness and, by so much, the need of shipping gold to this country. As a rule then, accumulating credits here mean a low rate of exchange, accumulating debits a high rate of exchange from this to the foreign country. These are the merest rudiments of the subject. The many problems arising, such as the adjustment of foreign credits to changing needs, and such as arbitrage (the readjustment of the rates of exchange prevailing among different financial centers) make foreign exchange both a complex science and a difficult art. § 10. #International monetary balance and price-levels.# The balance of all accounts for or against a country (including new loans, current interest, and repayments) must thus eventually be settled in money. This cannot fail to affect the general level of prices in both countries, tho this is brought about often only in indirect and gradual ways. The flow of money out of a country causes the loan market of a country to tighten (interest and discount rates to rise) in proportion as the reserves of the banks are reduced. Then "general prices" begin to fall.[10] When prices fall, imports decline, as the country is not so good a place in which to sell: when prices rise, imports increase, as it is a better place in which to sell. The opposite effect is produced on exports, and thus in a short time the national credits and debits are again brought into equilibrium. A slight movement of money in either direction is enough to influence prices and set in motion forces to counteract a further flow of money. Decade after decade the circulating medium of leading countries changes very slightly in amount, and the fluctuations in its amounts during periods of so-called "favorable balance of trade" and of "unfavorable balance of trade" are only the smallest fraction of the value of goods passing through the ports of the country. It is therefore absurd to imagine, as is sometimes done, that a country could, by continually importing goods, be drained of all its money, or that by any possible set of devices it could forever have an excess of exports to be paid for by a continual inflow of gold. Long before either of such movements could go far, the automatic readjustment of prices would inevitably check it, and secure and retain for each country its due portion of the money. [Footnote 1: See Vol. I, ch. 17, sec. 10.] [Footnote 2: See Vol. I, ch. 5, secs. 1 and 7.] [Footnote 3: See Vol. I, ch. 6, sec. 11, on the origin of markets.] [Footnote 4: See Vol. I, chs. 36 and 37.] [Footnote 5: Recall ch. 4, in general, on the nature of monetary demand.] [Footnote 6: See Vol. 1 for numerous statements of the effects of varying quantities of agents upon the economy of utilization; e.g., pp. 138, 163, 164, 213, 228, and chs. 34 and 35 entire.] [Footnote 7: This theory has usually been presented under the name of "the doctrine of comparative costs." The word "costs" is very misleading in this connection because it is now always applied to enterpriser's outlay. It seems best, therefore, to replace it in this phrase by the word "advantages." Of course, it _never_ can be true that an article can be "profitably" imported when its monetary costs (all things considered) are higher in the exporting than in the importing country. Indeed, the importation of any article is proof conclusive that the importer thinks that the monetary costs of an article would be higher in the importing than in the exporting country. See further, ch. 15, secs. 11 and 13 (note).] [Footnote 8: See ch. 7, sec. 7.] [Footnote 9: This varies also with conditions; after the outbreak of the war in 1914 it was for a time as high as $.05 because of high war rates of insurance.] [Footnote 10: The connection between a high rate of interest and falling price is a dynamic phenomenon of a very temporary nature. In long-time static conditions the general level of prices and the prevailing rate of interest are dependent on entirely different sets of forces. See on the theory of interest, Vol. I, p. 308. In long-time movements of prices, in contrast with brief changes due to foreign trade such as are referred to above, high rates of interest are connected with rising prices, and _vice versa._ See above, ch. 6, sec. 8, on fluctuating price-levels and the interest rate.] CHAPTER 14 THE POLICY OF A PROTECTIVE TARIFF § 1. Military and political motives for interference with trade. § 2. Revenue and protective tariffs. § 3. Growth of a protective system. § 4. The infant-industry argument. § 5. The home-market argument. § 6. The "two-profits" argument. § 7. The balance-of-trade argument. § 8. The claim that protection raises wages. § 9. Tariffs and unemployment. § 10. Exports and exhaustion of the soil. § 11. Protection as a monopoly measure. § 12. Harm of sudden tariff reductions. § 1. #Military and political motives for interference with trade.# The considerations set forth in the last chapter raise a strong presumption in favor of the sovereign state permitting its citizens to trade freely across its boundaries, as the best way to further their own prosperity and, on the whole and in the long run, that of the nation. Indeed, this presumption and belief has been held by nearly all serious students of the question, with more or less of modifications and qualifications, ever since Adam Smith published his work on the "Wealth of Nations" in 1776.[1] But in conflict with this belief has been the all but unanimous policy of nations from early times, throughout the Middle Ages, and down to this day, of interposing some special hindrances (of varying degrees and kinds) to this kind of trade. Sometimes this has been done by prohibitions, but more often by taxes imposed upon either imports or exports. Sometimes the attempt is made to justify the policy of governmental interference with foreign trade by arguments which crumble before the slightest examination, and again it is admitted that free trade is true in theory, but it is declared to be false in practice. The latter view is not to be entertained for a moment. If free trade in theory (as an explanation) is complete and true, it will in practice (as a plan of action) be sound and workable. In truth, however, the practical policy of governmental interference with foreign trade has always in part rested on other than the simple economic grounds. Interference with free trade with the foreigner has always been in large measure due to political motives. In every petty medieval state or self-governing city, the aim was to make the economic boundaries coincide as nearly as possible with the political boundaries. Except for the trade in a few articles of comparative luxury this aim was at that time nearly attainable. The peasantry surrounding a fortified town and enjoying its protection were compelled to trade there. Down to our own time it has seemed to statesmen expedient to forbid or discourage trade that might nourish the economic power of future enemies. Sometimes governments have used embargoes, bounties, or tariffs as weapons to injure the trade of other nations and to secure diplomatic or commercial concessions. Often they have sought by tariffs to encourage the building of ships and the manufacture of armaments and of all kinds of munitions by private enterprise within their own borders, even when the immediate cost of these products was greater than if they were purchased abroad. In such cases it is always a question whether an outright expenditure would not be better, whether the government could not build its own arsenals and shipyards more economically than it can foster private enterprise by means of a protective tariff. However, the political (or military) argument for protection recognizes that it is in itself a costly (not a profitable) policy, and that the cost is only justified on the grounds that military necessity warrants the outlay. The military argument as applied to the preparation of ships and munitions has no application to a tariff on those articles which have no bearing upon military power. But the most recent application of science and the mechanical arts to the uses of war has given new significance to a larger policy of industrial preparedness for military purposes. The year 1914 doubtless ushered in for the world a new epoch of protective and discriminatory tariff legislation determined by political rather than by direct economic considerations. § 2. #Revenue and protective tariffs.# An important distinction in principle is to be made between a tariff for revenue and a tariff for protection. A _revenue tariff_ is a schedule of duties on goods entering or leaving a country, so arranged that the collection of taxes causes the least possible disturbance to domestic industry. Speaking generally, the duties may be on either imports or exports; but, as export duties are unconstitutional in the United States, our tariff discussions are concerned only with import duties. The most completely revenue-yielding tariff is one touching only articles which, even at the higher prices are not in the least to be produced profitably in the home country. A _protective tariff_ is a schedule of import duties so arranged as to give appreciably higher prices to some domestic enterprises than they could obtain with free trade. It shuts out some foreign goods which would otherwise enter, an in so far it "protects" the domestic producer from the foreign competitors who would sell at lower prices than those at which he can or will sell. In other words, "protection" means governmental interference with the freedom of trade. The distinction between revenue and protective tariffs, thus clear in principle, is not always easy to make in practice. It does not lie in the intention of the taxing power, but in the actual effects produced. Most tariffs combine the characteristics both of revenue and of protective measures. A tariff that reduces imports but does not cut them off entirely may be called either a revenue tariff with incidental protection or a protective tariff with incidental revenue. The difference is one of degree. But notice particularly that the two features of protection and of revenue are mutually exclusive. To the extent that one is present the other is impossible. A tariff rate that in whole or in part excludes the foreign article to that extent affords "protection" but does not yield revenue. Whenever the government collects a cent of tariff taxes, the domestic producer in so far and as respects that unit of goods is unprotected. Likewise, whenever any domestic producer enjoys "protection" in respect to any unit of goods, importation is in so far prohibited and the government is deprived of any revenue whatever derived from the production and sale of that unit of goods. § 3. #Growth of a protective system.# The protective policy developed at first accidentally, as it were, out of the practice of levying taxes for revenue only. Tolls, dues (or duties), customs (that is, in former times the customary dues paid by merchants, now the dues fixed by law), tariffs (that is, schedules or lists of rates of duties) were at first intended to raise revenues for the sovereign, the city, or the state. The unintended, and to some degree inevitable, result of the taxation of goods in commerce, whether imports or exports, is to prevent and discourage trade and to raise the prices of the goods imported. Any change in tariff duties, therefore, at once alters the previously existing adjustment of profits and of industries in a country. The first effect of the tariff is the same as that of any new factor in enterpriser's cost; the same, for example, as that of a new domestic tax on an article or as that of a rise of freight rates--the domestic price of the taxed article tends to rise. Other results then follow. If the article cannot, even at the higher price, be produced within the country (as in the cases of oranges, spices, and coffee in England, Norway, and Sweden), its consumption is reduced. The lessening of demand may, however, depress somewhat the price in the producing country. But as such a tariff does not increase home production of the taxed article, it is therefore for revenue, not for protection. But if the article can be profitably produced in the importing country at the new price, "home industries" will start. Where the transportation charges are low, as on the coasts and on the main lines of railways, some imported goods may be bought, while farther inland where transportation charges are higher home production of some or all grades of such goods may take place. If the whole demand at home is supplied and all imports stop, therewith cease all revenues to the government from that source. A completely protective tariff is completely prohibitive. Experience abundantly shows that, with a few exceptions, due to climate and natural resources, it is impossible to put into effect the most moderate schedule of duties without the increase in price at once causing some men to shift their occupations, and to begin producing articles of the kinds that have risen in price. At once appears a group of "protected industries," the owners of which are dependent for the safety and profits of their investments, and the workmen in which are dependent for the security of their present jobs (possibly for the chance to continue the pursuit of highly skilled trades) on the continuance, if not the increase, of the existing tariff rates. A tariff may be adopted mainly from stress of financial need (as in our own history in 1789 or in 1861), but its modification or repeal cannot be decided by fiscal considerations. The "incidental protection" it affords has created a wealthy and influential group of employers and a large body of employees who are irresistibly tempted to exercise their influence in politics almost solely in favor of continuing and of increasing the rates to the sacrifice of the higher civic life of their communities. Of course the beneficiaries of the tariff usually believe sincerely that it is indispensable for the prosperity of the country as a whole, and they can do much to persuade others to the same opinion. This commercial motive for maintaining existing protective tariffs explains in large part their wide prevalence, whatever other reasons may be adduced in their justification. § 4. #The infant-industry argument.# Most free-trade writers concede a limited validity to the claim that protection may be used to encourage infant industries and thus diversify the industries of the country. If the natural resources of a land are adapted to an industry, it may be called into being earlier by a fostering protective tariff. This is merely anticipating and hastening the natural order of progress. In the American colonies the manufactures of such goods as iron, cloth, hats, ships, and furniture sprang up and continued not only without "protection," but despite numerous harassing trade restrictions made in the interest of English merchants. Can it be doubted that many of these industries would have developed and flourished after the adoption of the Constitution with no other favoring influences than those of rich resources and of economy in freights? In the Mississippi Valley since 1880 natural gas, abundant coal, ore, and timber have made possible a great growth of industries without protection against the Eastern states. Industries capable of eventual self-support must in most cases naturally appear in due time. Economic forces will bring them out. The protective system has often been likened to a hothouse, anticipating the season by a few weeks and at great cost. The question is whether the mere possession of the hothouse is a luxury worth the price, if meantime the products can be got more cheaply by trade. English manufactures flourished in the nineteenth century because they were well established, had excellent coal supplies, great stores of iron ore, and low-paid labor which did not have the opportunity of better alternatives, as did the American workman. If America had imported more (it would not have been all) of her iron and coal, the English mines would have begun to shown signs of exhaustion earlier, and America's advantage surely would have asserted itself in time. Her iron manufactures undoubtedly were hastened--they cannot truly be said to have been created--by the protective tariff. The peculiar advantages of a new country attract labor and enterprise into a few lines. Industries are forced into an earlier diversification by tariffs. Which is the better economic situation? Contrast Iowa, Dakota, and Minnesota, or Kansas, if you please, with New York and Pennsylvania. Is it so certain that a dense population congested in cities and crowded in factories and mines is a more ideal social aggregation than is a community of prosperous farmers? The smoky industrialism fostered by protection often puts a premium on a low grade of immigrants, crowds then into city slums and into forlorn mill towns, and keeps them aliens to the American spirit. It would be surprising if Americanism on the Western plains were not as sound as in the crowded cities. But the infant-industry argument appeals strongly to the enterprise and the speculative spirit of Americans, who like to do all things rapidly and on a large scale. Every village aspires to be a great industrial center. Americans are impatient of the suggestion that things "will come in time"; they like things to come at once. It must, however, be recognized that in a new country there is often a certain monotony and poverty of life because of the lack of diversified industries. There are not sufficiently varied avenues for the expression and use of the manifold talents of the nation. There are unused materials and opportunities, but the initial expense of experimentation, the initial difficulties of gathering and training a working force, are discouraging to individual enterprise, prices being as they are. A protective tariff is not necessarily and always the best way, but it is one way of helping private enterprise to establish and conduct such industries through their initial period. But as has been pointed out by many writers, the infant-industry argument is self-limiting, and involves always the assumption that the industries selected as fit for protection are such as ultimately, and within a moderately short period, can grow into self-dependence. The infant must sometime grow to be a man and stand on his own legs, or he is either a chronic invalid or a degenerate. #§ 5. The home-market argument.# The home-market argument seeks to show a more permanent need for a tariff. At the same time it appeals to the farmers, whom it has been hard to reconcile to a policy which in America[2] has been peculiarly favorable to manufacturers. The home-market argument extols the advantages of having near to the farms customers for agricultural products, and dwells on the greater steadiness of domestic trade. War or political changes, it is said, may change the demand for products. This is true, but no other changes have affected American agriculture so radically as the peaceful development of domestic transportation and the opening of the West. The main economic claim made in the home-market argument is that the shipping of food to Europe and the importing of manufactures involve a great cost for double freights which could be saved by manufacturing at home. The farmer is supposed to pay this cost. The obvious defects in this view are: first, there is nothing to show that the freight is not partly or entirely paid by the European, either the manufacturer or the food consumer; secondly, home trade "saves the freights" for the farmer only in case he can buy goods under a tariff with less of his own labor and products than under free trade. The payment of freight charges is true economy when the goods can be bought at a distance on more favorable terms than near home. The freight argument attempts to prove too much for it condemns every trade within the country, of goods produced a stone's throw away from the consumer. The home-market appeal is strongest when addressed not to all farmers, but to one class of farmers, those whose lands are situated nearer the manufacturing cities. As city population grows, some land is converted from the extensive cultivation of corn and wheat to dairying, fruit- and market-gardening in the neighborhood of cities, and perhaps at length is used for factory sites or as city lots. There is, thus, a partial validity in the argument as applied to a comparatively small number of farmers, who gain as landlords, not as tillers of the soil. Even greater gains have sometimes been reaped by the owners of timber lands, ore mines, coal lands, and other natural resources, the values of which have been raised by tariff legislation. But unless these gains come from truly productive additions due to the tariff, there is no benefit to the community as a whole. #§ 6. The "two-profits" argument.# Somewhat related to this idea of the saving of two freights is the "two-profits" argument. It is said that the tariff keeps "two profits" at home, foreign trade gives but one. The word "profits" is here used in the popular sense of gain from a single transaction. Both parties are said to profit and both profits are thought to be secured at home when two citizens are forced to trade with each other. The view that there are "two profits" in a trade is an advance upon the notion that "one man's gain is another's loss,"[3] but there is an error in elementary arithmetic here, both as to the number and as to the aggregate amount of profits. The purpose of a protective tariff is to compel two of the citizens of a country to trade with each other instead of trading with two citizens of a foreign state; the number of profits made by each country is therefore not increased by substituting domestic for foreign trade. What, then, as to individual size and aggregate amount of the profits? The gain is not the same in all trades; the trade is made if there is a gain to each party, no matter how small it is; but the generous "profit" on one transaction where the conditions of the two parties are very different may be greater than the total of petty gains on a dozen trades between two traders of evenly matched powers. Indeed, the greater the difference in the conditions and the capacities of two groups of traders, the greater is the sum of the profits which they may secure through the members of each group trading with those of the other, rather than by the members of each group trading only among themselves. Can it safely be assumed that every trade with a foreigner is less advantageous than one with a fellow-citizen? Diamond cuts diamond, but two Yankees left to themselves surely should not be worsted in bargains with the universe. If they could exchange to better advantage with each other they probably would discover it as soon as the interested manufacturers and political orators who can prove so eloquently that they know the other man's business better than he knows it himself. Forcing the home trade by making our citizens trade with each other whether both wish to or not may be to the advantage of one citizen, but it is not likely to be to the advantage of both citizens. § 7. #The balance-of-trade argument.# At the foundation of nearly all belief in the virtues of a protective tariff will be found the "favorable balance-of-trade" notion. The ideal of the more thorogoing upholders of a protective policy is to keep merchandise consistently flowing out of the country, and to have nothing come in--in any case, nothing that by any fair amount of effort (whatever that be) could be produced at home. This is called maintaining a "favorable balance of trade." Sometimes the emphasis is more on the advantages of an excess of exports of goods, sometimes more on the importance of the need "to keep money at home." The simple error in these opinions is clearly apparent in the explanation of foreign exchanges and of the principles regulating the international flow of money.[4] An interesting commentary on the opinion before us is the fact already noted[5] that an excess of exports is the usual situation in poor debtor countries having constant interest payments to meet; while, on the contrary, rich creditor countries have an excess of merchandise imports. The "favorable balance-of-trade" argument, with the emphasis on money rather than on goods, is that the protective tariff keeps money at home which, if trade is free, will be sent abroad to buy foreign goods, thus impoverishing the country. This doctrine as presented in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in Europe, was known as _mercantilism_. It had great influence upon the commercial policies of all the great European nations. A superficial glance at the trade relations of an old, rich country with a new province seems to give evidence for such a belief. A richer country that is lending capital (sent to the debtor country in the form of goods) has at the same time a larger supply of money. The lack of money and the poverty of the newer country are looked upon by the protectionist as due to the importation of goods. The common cause of the imports to newly settled districts and of their scanty stocks of money, it need hardly be repeated here, is the comparative poverty of settlers and pioneers.[6] Often these are paying for imports by means of loans, and in any case their monetary stocks are not decreased either by their foreign trade or by their domestic trade with the older and richer parts of the same country. Europe and the United States, in their trade with China and South America, usually do not get gold in exchange, but merchandise of various sorts. It is true that in the trade of England and New York with great gold-producing districts, such as California, South Africa, and Alaska, gold is received in return for merchandise, for much of the gold in gold-producing districts is merely merchandise, and its export does not drain them of their due portion of money. There was a time when the states of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and their neighbors were filled with resentment against the money-lenders of the Eastern states. There was a widespread belief that hard times were due to an insufficient currency.[7] Attempted action took the form of the greenback and free silver movements, which were defeated by the opposition of the East, but there can be little doubt that if the Federal Constitution had not forbidden it, the discontented states would have established a protective tariff "to keep their money at home." Few advocates of protective tariffs are ready to admit that the money stock of the country is dependent on the general wealth of the country and on the methods of doing business, rather than on a protective tariff. § 8. #The claim that protection raises wages.# The most effective popular claim made for protection is that it raises, or maintains, the general scale of wages in the country. This argument takes two forms: first, when wages are low in a country it is claimed that a tariff is needed to raise them; and, secondly, when wages are high it is argued that a tariff alone can preserve them. In Germany the fear is of the higher paid and more efficient labor of England. In America, where general wages at all times have been higher than in England, it was first argued (in the time of Henry Clay) that because of the greater cost of production, due to high wages, the tariff was needed to start certain industries; but after the tariff had long been established and the old argument had been forgotten (ever since 1865), it has been urged that the tariff, being the cause of high wages, must be maintained to protect against the "pauper" labor of the older countries. The higher wages in new countries where a tariff exists are always claimed to be the fruits of a protective policy. The true cause of the high general scale of wages in America is the greater efficiency of industry under existing conditions.[8] Labor is surrounded here with advantages in the forms of rich natural resources and of mechanical appliances such as never before were combined. Because of the scarcity of workers in particular protected industries, wages may be temporarily higher in them than in some other industries; but such workers form a small fraction of the population, and it is impossible to show that the general scale of wages in all occupations is raised by the tariff protecting this fraction. There is, of course, no question that every tariff change affects certain enterprises and classes of workmen. Enterprisers already acquainted with and engaged in a business always may hope to gain by the higher prices immediately following a rise in the tariff rates on their particular products. Though they are granted no enduring monopoly by the protection, they for a time enjoy the advantage of being on the ground, and may reap the first fruits of the favoring conditions. The enterpriser usually profits when the price of his product suddenly rises. Usually skilled workmen are affected slowly by competition when there is any considerable increase of prices in their special industries. The important question is, Who bears the burden of the higher prices that result from a tariff? The burden is very soon distributed. A part of it may be for a short time borne by the retail merchants, but ultimately nearly the whole of it must be borne by their customers, the unfortunate, less favored citizens. The weight falling on each is usually small, often unsuspected, always hard to measure. The increased benefit is concentrated in a few industries and accrues to a comparatively few producers. Here is a recipe for riches: get everybody to give you a penny; it's so little that no one will miss it, and it will mean a great deal to you. Something like this happens in the case of many protected industries; every consumer of the article pays a few cents more, a small group of wage-earners temporarily gains, and a few enterprises wax wealthy. § 9. #Tariffs and unemployment#. The claim that a low tariff is bad for the workers is made with peculiar success in any period when unemployment is greater than usual. It is vain in reply to show that again and again equally bad periods of unemployment have occurred when a high tariff was in force, and that often the most highly protected industries are most affected. It is vain to suggest that fluctuations of unemployment are related rather to the rhythm of industrial cycles and panics, than to any particular level of the tariff, whatever it be.[9] The fact that at the moment is seen is that here are some men for the time out of work, and here are some foreign goods coming in. Of course, what is not seen is that if we stop importing goods we thereby eventually will stop the exportation of goods of equal value now being sent in payment and this must throw as many men out of jobs as we helped into jobs by raising the tariff. But the view easy to take is the short view, and the ulterior consequences seem to the popular mind to be vain imaginings. § 10. #Exports and exhaustion of the soil#. It has been ingeniously argued that a tariff may keep some of the natural agricultural resources of a new country from becoming quickly exhausted. The export of food takes out of the soil and out of the country fertile qualities never to be returned. The shipment of several hundred million dollars of food products year after year represented a tremendous drain from the soil of the United States, but this has now largely ceased. The assumption, however, that the use of the food in this country preserves the fertility of our own fields is in the main mistaken. The fertile material in the food for human consumption hauled to a town five miles away from the field is almost as entirely lost as if it were shipped to Europe. Engineering skill has as yet succeeded in returning economically to the fields from which it comes hardly a fraction as much fertile organic matter as that which flows into the sewers, that is dumped into river and ocean, and that is buried in heaps at the borders of our own cities. Artificial fertilizers are increasingly used, to be sure, but they are obtained in other ways. On the other hand, the increased use of iron, coal, and timber, as a result of encouraging manufacturers, has very effectually hastened the exhaustion of the natural resources of the country. § 11. #Protection as a monopoly measure#. It has rightly been observed that a new country has a limited potential monopoly in certain kinds of products and that a tariff may make it effective. The rapid opening up of America with its rich natural resources greatly benefited the average consumer in Western Europe, altho it caused a loss to a special class of landowners.[10] Whether the citizens of the older or of the newer country shall reap the greater benefit in the trade depends on the reciprocal demand for the two classes of goods, as was seen in discussing the equation of international demand. A wide margin of advantage may go to one party and a narrow margin to the citizen of the more favored land. To put it concretely: America, having great natural resources for agriculture, might continue to trade food for manufactured goods even tho England reaped most of the benefits of the trade. An American tariff on manufactures from England would, under such conditions, check the demand for English products and compel some Americans to leave farming. This reduction of the American supply of wheat or corn and of the American demand for English manufactures compels a new ratio of trade (expressed in prices). It is conceivable that trading fewer goods with a larger gain on each trade would give a larger total of gain to the favored nation. Thus, foreigners may conceivably be compelled to pay a part of the tariff duties to enjoy the favored market. This is but a special case of the monopoly principle; the government by law artificially limits the supply of goods offered by its citizens. This argument is somewhat subtle, but probably is the soundest one in the theory of protection. The supposed conditions seldom occur in a marked measure, but they may exist, and probably have existed in America. When the great system of internal transportation was developed in the United States before that of the other new countries (say from 1840 to 1894), this country had such peculiar advantages for the production of food that the quantity was enormously increased and agricultural prices fell.[11] At such a time the tariff may have worked toward checking the fall and earlier reestablishing a more favorable ratio. It did this by making prices of manufactured goods in this country artificially higher and thus tempting men from rural to urban callings. But the limited application of the principle must be recognized. The potential competition of undeveloped countries on all sides, seeking to develop their resources, and profiting by the higher prices of food in the world-market caused by our tariff, threatens the peculiar advantages of the favored land. Russia, Argentina, and Australia have rapidly taken the place of America in supplying food to Western Europe, in part, no doubt, because we refused to take Europe's goods in trade. A great nation with its manifold interests is not eminently fitted to practise the gentle art of monopoly. The period in America from about 1840 to 1890 shows certain absurd contradictions in economic policy. By governmental action, national, state, and municipal, enormous grants of money and lands were made in aid of transportation. Canals, roads, and railways were built into new agricultural territory far faster than was healthy and normal. A prodigal land policy put a premium upon a wastefully rapid extension of the farming area. These things were done to favor the agricultural states, but agricultural prices fell so greatly that our farmers for a long period were nowhere prosperous, and great numbers of them, both in the East and in the West, were ruined. At the same time a high tariff on nearly everything the farmers needed to buy was the political spoil obtained by the Eastern and Middle states. This further depressed the condition of the farmers and forced them or their sons into urban industries. A slower development would have occurred without the waste of national resources in such conflicting policies of artificial stimulation. § 12. #Harm of sudden tariff reductions.# It is rarely appreciated how great is the tactical advantage which the advocates of a high tariff enjoy in popular political discussion. They can so easily impress the popular judgment with the evident fruits of their own policy and with the immediate dangers of the policy of their opponents. When a protective rate is first applied or is increased, it calls into existence something visible and tangible, which can be measured in terms of factories built, men employed, and products turned out. The increased cost of these results is diffused among many consumers and reaches them in such indirect ways and in such small increments of price that they are quite unaware of the way they are affected.[12] On the other hand, reduction of the tariff works in a direction the reverse of the enactment. It may cause local crises and may even bring on general crises. The benefits of the lower prices are diffused and lost to view; the immediate injury is concentrated and strikingly evident. Factories are closed, investments depreciate, laborers are thrown out of employment. The organic nature of local industry causes these evils to be felt by many classes. Merchants, professional men, servants, and skilled laborers, that are tributary to the depressed industry, suffer. The effects are transmitted to commercial and financial centres and often credit is much shaken. Then follows a slow and painful process of readjustment. The low-tariff advocates in America undoubtedly have underestimated these immediate effects. They have been too abstractly doctrinaire, have argued too absolutely for the merits of free trade to be applied instantly regardless of the existing distribution of investments and of occupations. They have opposed one extreme system by another, with no thought of the inexpediency and injustice of sweeping changes. There is a strong feeling among business men that any tariff, be it high or low, is better than a shifting policy. Despite the great preponderance of domestic production over foreign trade, it is perhaps too much to say that the tariff is unimportant in our present conditions. It can, however, be truly said that business can adjust itself in large measure to any settled conditions and that radical changes, especially sudden and large reductions, are fraught with evils. Long before a new tariff law goes into effect, even months in advance of its passage, while it is merely in prospect, the course of trade is abnormally affected. If the rate is likely to be raised, large importations take place under the lower rate, and for a considerable time after the law goes into effect imports are small, while prices rise and domestic production gradually increases. But if the rate is likely to fall, importations are for months meager, stocks of goods are reduced to the lowest point, and when the lower rate goes into effect, large importations follow to the injury of domestic producers. In many cases a year or two of notice, time given to enterprisers to adjust their business, would probably do away with a large part both of the serious losses and of the lottery-like gains that otherwise occur. The obvious measure of precaution and of justice would be to put any new rate into effect gradually.[13] The difficulties are of a political nature and in the desire of the party in power to "make a showing" at once of the results of its campaign pledges, in the one case by starting and stimulating industries through a higher tariff and in the other by reducing prices to consumers through a lower tariff. Under the new permanent tariff board, constituted to suggest tariff changes and to administer the tariff laws, it would be possible to apply some such feature. [Footnote 1: See above, ch. 2, secs. 12, 13.] [Footnote 2: In European countries, on the contrary, the rates that have been mainly effective have been those levied upon food products, and the agricultural landholders have been the "protected interests," such as the England "landed aristocracy," the German agrarian "Junkertum," and the French peasant landowners.] [Footnote 3: See above, ch. 13, sec. 2.] [Footnote 4: See ch. 4, sec. 6 and ch. 13, secs. 6-10.] [Footnote 5: In ch. 13, sec. 7.] [Footnote 6: See ch. 4, secs. 4 and 9.] [Footnote 7: That there is a certain measure of truth in this opinion is recognized in our discussion of the standard of deferred payments, ch. 6, sec. 9. But the relation of a world-wide appreciation of the standard money commodity with the burden that this change puts upon debtors has nothing to do with the question now before us, viz.: Does a protective tariff enable a country to keep and increase its proportion of the world's stock of gold; and if it could, would it be a general benefit?] [Footnote 8: See Vol. I, especially p. 228, and chs. 34 and 36.] [Footnote 9: See on wages in times of crises, ch. 10, secs. 6 and 7; and on tariff changes, ch. 10, sec. 14, and ch. 15, sec. 13.] [Footnote 10: See Vol. 1, pp. 361 and 443.] [Footnote 11: See Vol. 1, p. 436, for average wheat prices in England, practically in the world-market.] [Footnote 12: See above, sec, 8. On the next paragraph, see ch. 10, sec. 14.] [Footnote 13: For example, the maximum alteration in any year might be limited to 3.65 per cent of the value of the goods and in any case not to exceed one tenth of the old duty, this change to be applied day by day. Thus, if, on a valuation of $1000, the duty collected under the old rate has been $400, and under the new law is to be $290.50, three years would be required for the full change to become effective, the reduction each day being $.10 per $1000 valuation. The administration of such a rule would be simple, and it has been favored by men of practical commercial experience.] CHAPTER 15 AMERICAN TARIFF HISTORY § 1. Prevalence of protective tariffs. § 2. Specific and _ad valorem_ rates. § 3. Some technical features of the tariff. § 4. The tariff, 1789-1815. §5. The tariff, 1816-1845. §6. The tariff, 1846-1860. §7. The tariff, 1861-1871. § 8. The tariff, 1872-1889. § 9. The tariff, 1890-1896. § 10. The Dingley tariff, 1897-1909. § 11. Sentiment favoring lower rates. § 12. The Payne-Aldrich tariff, 1909-1913. § 13. The Underwood tariff, 1913. § 14. Some lessons from our tariff history. Note on Tariff legislation and business depressions. § 1. #Prevalence of protective tariffs.# For a century and a half most serious students of economics have favored a larger measure of freedom, if not absolute freedom, in foreign trade. But the actual practice of most nations has never been in accord with the principles laid down by the philosophers. Great Britain alone among the larger countries has, since 1846, steadily pursued a low tariff policy for revenue only, and her example has been most nearly followed by Holland and Denmark. Germany, which had always had restrictive duties, adopted still more protective measures under Bismarck in 1879. France, Italy, and most of the other nations of Europe have strong protective tariffs. The United States has followed a restrictive policy since near the beginning of the last century. The explanation of this contradiction between precept and practice is not entirely simple. Great interests are affected by foreign trade and certain of these interests are able to influence opinion and to dominate legislation. Free trade is not the most desirable thing for every one. The general policy of free trade between nations, as advocated by most English economists since Adam Smith, has usually been rejected by the people and the legislators of other countries. In its details American policy in tariff legislation under the Constitution has been varied and vacillating. The changes have been determined in most cases by motives of temporary partisan advantage or by the political activity of the immediate beneficiaries rather than by clear knowledge and consistent purpose of the electorate as a whole. Thus its lessons for the student are largely of a negative nature, but they well repay serious study. § 2. #Specific and _ad valorem_ rates.# Before entering upon the history of the American policy let us make clear the meaning of certain technical terms and explain certain methods which are frequently referred to. Rates (and duties) may be by either specific or _ad valorem. Specific duties_ are those that are calculated and levied according to some physical test, as so much per pound, per yard, per hundred-weight, or per ton. _Ad valorem_ duties are those that are calculated and levied according to the value of the goods (usually as it was at the place of shipment) determined by an assessor, by invoice of sale, by statement of the importer under oath, etc. The actual duty collected on any article may result from various combinations of the two rates (as, to take an actual example, $4.50 a pound and 25 per cent _ad valorem_ on cigars and cigarettes) or _ad valorem_ with a minimum valuation so that on the cheaper goods the rate is specific. Specific rates are more easily applied in administration, not offering the temptation to undervaluation and misrepresentation that _ad valorem_ rates do; on the other hand, specific rates do not adjust themselves to price changes as _ad valorem_ rates do. If the prices of goods go up the specific rate is relatively less and affords less of "protection" to the domestic producer; whereas if prices go down (as, in general trend, the prices of manufactured goods have done most of the time) the specific duties are relatively greater. To take a historical example, the specific rate of 6-1/4 cents a yard on cotton goods in 1816 which was at first in fact only about 25 per cent, within a few years became about 75 per cent and absolutely prohibitive. For this reason specific rates have most often been used in acts intended to increase the "protective" duties and often as a device for immediately raising rates; while _ad valorem_ rates have been more often used in acts prompted by the desire for less drastic exclusion and for a more adequate revenue; but there is no essential connection between the protective policy and specific rates. Indeed, in the period from 1897 to 1909, when most prices were rising, many of the specific rates under the Dingley Act, intended to be strongly protective, afforded less and less "protection."[1] § 3. Some technical features of the tariff. All goods not subject to duties are said to be on the _free list_. It is customary to group articles in _schedules_, of which there are fourteen in the law of 1913, designated from A to N (for chemicals, pottery, metals, wood, etc.), but the rates are not uniform for all the articles in each schedule. _Drawbacks_ are a certain amount, the whole or a part, of the duties that have been paid on imported commodities, which is paid back by the government on the reëxportation of the goods. _Compensatory duties_ (or compensatory rates) are those levied on certain manufactured articles with the purpose of raising their price as much as domestic producers' costs are raised by a tariff on their raw materials. Examples are a duty on woolen goods to offset a duty on wool, or a duty on shoes to offset one on hides. They may be intended to be partial or complete or more than sufficient, and are likely in any case to work either more or less to the advantage of the domestic producer than was intended. It may be that the conditions of supply are such that the home price of the raw materials is raised little or none by the tariff while the price of the finished product is considerably raised, or _vice versa._ § 4. #The tariff, 1789-1815.# The main difficulty of government in 1781-1789 under the Articles of Confederation was lack of the power to obtain revenues by taxation. The separate states alone could levy duties, and a good many tariff restrictions on freedom of trade among them developed in this period. The Constitution established the principle of entire freedom of trade among the states. The first act of Congress under the Constitution levied a tariff, primarily for revenue purposes, but clearly having a protective purpose, in the view of some of the representatives. However, most of the separate rates, as well as the general average rate, were the lowest ever levied by Congress, except that there was no free list and that 5 per cent was imposed upon all goods not otherwise enumerated. _Ad valorem_ duties up to a maximum of 15 per cent (that on carriages) were laid upon certain articles of luxury, and low specific duties on a few articles such as glass, nails, iron manufactures, hemp, and cordage. From 1789 until 1812, thirteen tariff laws, all told, were passed. One after another many rates were raised to get larger revenues, but some goods were put upon the free list. The foreign trade, in both imports and exports, grew largely and with considerable regularity, rising then rapidly to a maximum in 1807. Then followed troublous times, with British Orders in Council and our embargo and nonintercourse acts until 1812, and war until 1815, trade falling off at first to one-half, and at last (in 1814) to less than one-twelfth of the former maximum. Just as trade was, in the war period, sinking to the vanishing point, the tariff rates were doubled in hopes of getting increased revenues needed for the war, but in vain. [Illustration: FIG. 3. IMPORTS INTO THE UNITED STATES. 1821-18565 Many statistics bearing upon tariff history are graphically brought together here. This figure should be carefully studied in connection with the following sections. Observe how invariably in the years following a crisis, the amounts of dutiable imports and of duties collected have diminished, whether the tariff meantime was changed or not.] § 5. #The tariff, 1816-1845.# Tho rates had been rising, manufacturers had been making efforts to secure higher rates for protectio | ||
